5 Ways the Second Wild Card Is Already Impacting the MLB Trade Market

When Major League Baseball finalized its decision to incorporate a second wild card berth into the league's postseason format, everyone realized it was going to have a very noticeable effect going forward.

The second wild card is already starting to make its presence felt. We're still many weeks away from seeing teams lock up postseason berths, but we're really not that far off from MLB's trade deadline. The existence of the second wild card is going to make things even crazier than usual as we get closer to July 31.

On the surface, the situation is pretty straightforward. With one more postseason berth up for grabs, there are more teams making a legitimate run at the playoffs than usual. Simple as that.

Naturally, things get slightly more complicated once you go digging beneath the surface. Here's a look at five ways the extra wild card is shaking up the MLB trade market. 

David Wright Is off the Table

Against all odds, the New York Mets find themselves in the thick of the NL wild-card hunt. In fact, they'll have a shot at winning the NL East crown if they keep doing what they're doing.

So, if you're an MLB general manager, do the Mets a favor and don't waste their time asking about David Wright.

It was speculated before the start of the season that the Mets would eventually decide to dangle Wright as trade bait. Heck, Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com wrote earlier this month that the Mets should consider dealing Wright, thus taking advantage of his hot start.

Jon Heyman had this to say in a recent report over at CBS Sports: "Two things you can count on: 1) Wright isn't going anywhere in trade this summer, and 2) the Mets will try to lock up Wright to a longterm deal, if not this season than this winter."

There always was a chance the Mets would hold on to Wright simply for the sake of throwing the team's fanbase a bone. But since the Mets are exceeding expectations and winning ball games this year, they have even more incentive to hold on to Wright.

Further, the Wall Street Journal recently reported, "The team is quietly preparing to offer third baseman David Wright a long-term contract extension at some point later this year—perhaps as soon as this summer—according to a baseball official briefed on the Mets' thinking."

So teams in need of a power-hitting third baseman should look elsewhere. I hear Kevin Youkilis may be on the market, if that helps.

To Sell, or Not to Sell?

I mentioned in the slideshow introduction that more teams than usual are vying for playoff berths thanks to the existence of the second wild card.

The problem is, teams that aren't supposed to be in the race are in the race. And that's not necessarily a good thing.

Take the Houston Astros, for example. They're by no means a great team, but they've outperformed expectations thus far, even at 15-21 as of Wednesday.

As a result, Jon Heyman reports that the Astros haven't yet begun to talk about trading their veteran players, most notably Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers. At the moment, the team is in something of a holding pattern.

Another example is the Chicago White Sox. They desperately need to rebuild their farm system, and one guy who could prove very useful to that end is Jake Peavy, who ESPN's Buster Olney thinks is one of the most marketable pitchers in baseball right now.

But as Olney notes, team will be more reluctant to surrender with the implementation of the second wild card. The Sox are not in a position to buy given the weakness of their farm system, but they're not in a position to sell yet either.

For some teams, the extra wild card is a blessing. For teams like the Astros and White Sox, it's only making complicating things.

Huge Demand for Pitching

Whenever the trade deadline rolls around, there's always a ton of demand for pitching. Teams looking to make a run at the playoffs tend to want to acquire as much pitching depth as possible.

This year, there will naturally be an even bigger demand for pitching than usual.

If you bring up the Olney link from the previous slide, you'll see that he put together a pretty impressive list of names that could find their way onto the trading block as we get closer and closer to July 31. 

Jake Peavy's name tops the list, which makes sense, but also on there are aces like Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels and Carlos Zambrano. If the Angels keep struggling, even Dan Haren could become trade bait. There's typically a shortage of quality starting pitchers on the market, and it's looking like that won't be the case this year.

Here's the truly intriguing part: more teams in the mix means more bidders. More bidders means more intense bidding wars.

MLB insiders like Heyman, Olney, Rosenthal and all the rest are going to have their hands full this July.

Why Sell When You Can Win?

There are some solid trade rumors out there at this point in the season, but most of the rumors you're going to hear are mere speculation.

That Olney list is a good example. As always, there's substance to his speculation, but some of the pitchers he mentioned happen to play for teams that have a legit chance of making the postseason.

For example, the Cleveland Indians are not going to part with Derek Lowe, and the Oakland A's are not going to part with Bartolo Colon if they're still contending come July. Carlos Zambrano's pitching is a key reason why the Miami Marlins have been able to turn things around, and they're basically getting it for free. Why would they trade him?

Any team that ventures to do business with any of the three teams listed above would essentially be trying to convince them to prematurely and purposefully drop out of the postseason chase.

Basically, what we're going to have are a lot of potential buyers, few sellers, and teams that should be sellers but aren't.

This, of course, will lead to some fascinating developments.

Poor Teams Buying from Rich Teams?

Bob Nightengale of USA Today was kind enough to point out that four of the five highest-spending teams in MLB would not qualify for the postseason if the season ended today, even with the expanded format.

Most notably, the Philadelphia Phillies would be left out in the cold. They have a payroll of nearly $175 million, but they've struggled to get on track this season.

The Phillies could very well wheel and deal at the deadline if they're still within striking distance of a playoff spot in July. If they're out of it, they could look to jettison players, starting with ace lefty Cole Hamels.

He's a player who's going to make a ton of money in free agency this offseason, but the odds are good that he would be acquired by a small-market team in a trade. The Toronto Blue Jays, for example, have already kicked the tires on both Hamels and Shane Victorino, according to Ken Rosenthal.

The Phillies aren't the only big-money team that could go into sell mode. The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels could join them, and they could end up shipping high-priced players off to the traditionally more frugal teams.

Not exactly unheard of, to be sure, but it's something that could be surprisingly commonplace this season.

What to Expect

I've basically outlined a trade market that is going to feature a ton of demand and potentially very little supply with the new postseason format.

Obviously, things are going to change in the coming weeks. Teams are going are going to stop over-performing and level out sooner or later, resulting in more sellers and fewer buyers.

In other words, things are going to go back to normal as we get closer and closer to July 31.

But not too normal. The extra wild card will continue to loom large over the trade market, and the number of sellers is bound to be outweighed by the number of buyers. As I said before, the bidding wars will be intense.

So if you like trade deadline madness (who doesn't?), the 2012 trade deadline should be lots of fun.

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