Kentucky Derby 2012 Odds: Long Shots Worth Taking a Chance on

If you're looking for a good pick for a long shot to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby, horses like Trinniberg  and Prospective may be your best bets.

That's the hard thing about the Derby odds: You just never really know what's going to happen.

One year the best-looking horse can take it by a landslide, but then the next year a long shot can come out of nowhere and surprise the field.

Nobody likes it when the long shot wins, unless it's the horse you picked.

If you're feeling particularly risky, check out these two horses.

Trinniberg: Morning Line 50-to-1, Currently 39-to-1

Trinniberg is a front-runner horse, which means that he enjoys getting out in front of the pack and never looking back. The problem is that with this long of a race, he may burn out, and he's also susceptible to the horses that start building momentum late races.

The thing is that Trinniberg can set the pace and keep the pace, so there is a chance that the field will group up behind him and some of those late breakers will get caught up.

Here's a take on Trinniberg from Joe Drape of The New York Times:

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Trinniberg is a sprinter who has never run longer than seven furlongs. He has only one way to run: all out from the start. That is a style that has earned him back-to-back stakes races and more than $340,000 in career earnings.

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For a horse that is currently sitting at 39-1 odds, Trinniberg is a great bet—if he can get out in front and never look back.

Prospective: Morning Line 30-to-1, Currently 58-to-1

One thing that is often forgotten in regard to a race is the atmosphere. Any properly trained horse can get out on the track on a nice spring afternoon and run like the wind in front of a couple people, but this is the Kentucky Derby we are talking about.

The atmosphere is going to be electric, and that's something that the horses may or may not be able to handle.

According to Brad Telias of Sporting News, Prospective is more than capable of handling the pressure:

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Also, he’s rather bomb-proof, important on Derby day when 140,000 fans (or more) cheer wildly, a wall of noise that most horses haven’t heard before. After his work, Prospective takes a nap. During the Blue Grass Stakes, Prospective had to be nudged by jockey Luis Contreras to come out of his slumber during the post parade in front of 40,000 fans.

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A horse being able to keep his or her cool before the race is such an underrated trait, and it seems as if Prospective has got a good head on his shoulders.

The pressure on the trainers, jockeys and owners at the derby is an undeniable thing, and I'm sure the horses can feel it as well.

At 58-to-1, you're getting a horse that can handle the pressure, and he may very well be primed for an upset.