The 2012 Kentucky Derby is nearing closer, and the odds are always in favor of the contending horses, but most times those favorites won't pan out in the race. In the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, which favorite will just not show up come race time?
According to Jeff Frank at The Sports Network, 10 of the last 20 Kentucky Derby races have been won by horses that were at least 10-1. In addition, two other winners were 8-1 and another was 9-1. On the flip side, only four favorites have been victorious over that time span.
Besides Union Rags, the other favorite on everybody's list is Bodemeister trained by one of the best trainers in horse racing Bob Baffert. Bodemeister is at 4-1 Kentucky Derby odds and has more superior talent and speed than most of the 2012 Kentucky Derby Field.
Gary West, sportswriter and commentator on ESPN, interviewed trainer Bob Baffert, "I don't see anything right now that would make us think he can't progress," Baffert said about Bodemeister, who settled in Tuesday at Churchill. "He's a very fit horse."
Although Bodemeister looks to be a clear favorite in the Kentucky Derby field, his lack of experience will be his downfall. Bodemeister did not even race as a 2-year-old and the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby who did not race as a 2-year-old was Apollo in 1882. Moreover, he only has raced four times and his first debut was Jan 16, 2012 so even though he might appear as a favorite, history is stacked against this colt.
Another favorite that will look to disappoint is Daddy Nose Best who has 15-1 Kentucky Derby Odds, trained by Steve Asmussen. Daddy Nose Best is a very experienced horse unlike Bodemeister, but Daddy Nose Best has raced mostly turf.
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According to Jerry Bossert at the New York Daily News, Daddy Nose Best has made a good transition to dirt and has great ability to handle multiple different tracks; however, his trainer Steve Asmussen is winless in 10 Derby outings, and his jockey Garrett Gomez is winless in eight Derby starts.
Moreover, Daddy Nose Best has really not been tested by top competition and is very inconsistent at times. As a result, look for Daddy Nose Best to take a step back in today's Kentucky Derby after winning the Sunland Derby back in March.
The third and final favorite that will be considered a bust is Gemologist trained by one of the best in Todd Pletcher. Gemologist is at 6-1 Kentucky Derby Odds and comes into the race undefeated. Gemologist has run five times, winning twice over the Churchill Downs track. Three of the past five Kentucky Derby winners to come into this race undefeated also won.
According to John Cherwa at the Los Angeles Times, Todd Pletcher was in the winner's circle at Churchill Downs. They were just there in 2010 with Super Saver. For Pletcher it broke an 0-for-24 streak, an ignominious Derby record."They have a lot of similarities," Pletcher said. "They both won the major 2-year-old stake at Churchill in the fall. And the fact that Gemologist is two for two at Churchill is a huge asset.
The downfall of course with this colt, just like Bodemeister and Daddy Nose Best, is Gemologist has won against inferior competition and lacks the experience to win. Friday's run also did not help Gemologist when jockey Javier Castellano actually fell off the horse and was in jeopardy of missing today's Kentucky Derby.
Furthermore, lack of experience, inconsistency, and winning against inferior competition does not bode well for these horses leading up to the Kentucky Derby. The 2012 Kentucky Derby will be no different as Bodemesiter, Daddy Nose Best, and Gemologist will be among the traditional favorites that will look to disappoint in this year's running of the roses at Churchill Downs.