Golden State Warriors: A Playoff Team in 2012-2013? (Part 1)

Part 1 of a two-part story on the likelihood of a playoff berth for the Golden State Warriors in 2012-2013. Part 1 looks at this season’s Warriors, analyzing what went wrong and highlighting areas that need improvement.

Part 2 will be an early look at the Warriors roster next year, including team needs and players the Warriors should target in free agency to help achieve the playoff dream.

Hired by the Golden State Warriors at the start of the 2011-2012 NBA season, new head coach Mark “You’re Better Than That!” Jackson—he of the zero NBA head coaching, assistant coaching or college coaching experience—boldly guaranteed a playoff berth for his team.

Speaking at his introductory press conference last June, Coach Jackson declared that “I fully expect, put it in bold letters, the Golden State Warriors to be a playoff team next year” (happy to oblige, Coach).

A bold promise for any franchise, Jackson’s claim sounded all the more audacious for a franchise with one playoff appearance in the last 17 seasons; an organization unrivaled in its long history of abysmal decision-making and dispiriting futility.Fast-forwarding to April 11, 2012, it came as little surprise to many when the Warriors were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs following a 118-110 loss to the LaMarcus Aldridge-less Trail Blazers.

Currently holding the eighth-worst record in the NBA, what went wrong for the Warriors this season? We’ll take a look at both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, highlighting the major pitfalls of what was another forgettable season.

OFFENSE

Similar to past Warrior squads, the 2011-2012 team has not struggled to put up points, currently ranking eighth in points per game, sixth in field goal percentage, eighth in free throw percentage and first in three-point percentage (particularly helpful when the team jacks up an average of 21.0 three-pointers a game).

To get a little geeky, the Warriors' true shooting percentage (a weighted percentage that also accounts for three-pointers and free throws) comes in at a robust 54.3 percent, good for fifth in the NBA. Put in simpler terms, these boys can flat-out shoot the ball.

Nonetheless, the superficial sparkle provided by the Warriors’ jump-shooting prowess cannot hide the dark underbelly of their offense limitations; looking at the numbers, the Warriors proved incapable in two crucial offensive areas: offensive rebounding and getting to the line.

The team’s offensive rebound rate (the percentage of available offensive rebounds resulting in an offensive rebound) was 23.2 percent, good for 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA. Comparatively, the Bulls, the NBA leader in offensive rebounding, had an offensive rebound rate of 33.1 percent, helping them attain the NBA’s best record.

When switching to charity swipe-related numbers, the Warriors again ranked 29th in the league with a free throw rate (free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted) of 23.3 percent. In contrast, the league-leading Thunder, one of the best teams in the NBA, clock in at 33.3 percent.

With such poor numbers in offensive rebounding and free throw rate, it’s clear that the Warriors were the epitome of a perimeter-oriented team.

As pretty as it was to watch Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Brandon Rush blitz opponents with the three-ball, the team struggled in crunch time, settling for long jumpers due to their inability to get to the line and earn some easy points.

DEFENSE

The Warriors of the past have never been known for defense, characterized by the high-flying Run TMC outfits of the mid-90s and Don Nelson’s run-and-gun 'We Believe' teams a decade later.

When hired, Mark Jackson vowed to instill a new culture, emphasizing intensity, toughness and, above all, defense.

Wanting to slow the game down and play a more rugged style of basketball, Jackson’s Warriors hit the brakes this season; after finishing second, first, first and sixth the last four seasons in pace (average possessions used per game), the Dubs currently sit at 11th in the NBA.

Nonetheless, the more important consideration is whether this slower pace led to a better defensive team. After taking a look at the numbers, the short answer is…no.

Much like previous editions of Warriors teams, this year’s team places in the bottom third in opponent’s field goal percentage, opponent’s three-point percentage and opponent’s true shooting percentage. Of particular note, the Warriors are dead last in defensive rebounding and 27th in opponent’s free-throw rate.

The Warriors remain one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, their combination of excessive fouling and lack of rebounding contributing to their significant defensive woes.

RECAP

Ultimately, the 2011-2012 Golden State Warriors did not live up to the playoff guarantee of their charismatic new coach. In particular, a lack of rebounding (both offensive and defensive) and overall team defense led to a disappointing season.

Hope springs eternal, though, as Warrior fans can begin looking to the start of a new season, a new beginning in which every team stands undefeated.

However, looking at the current roster and available free agents for next season, how likely is it that the Warriors will improve enough to challenge for a playoff berth? Can Warrior fans rise up once again to proudly declare that “WE BELIEVE?”

Part 2 of Story