The 2012 schedule is out and everyone is taking a crack at the impossible: trying to predict records before the draft.
I can't resist getting in on the game. I'm going to go through the schedule of all four teams in the AFC South and try to find the probable wins and losses, as well as map out a best and worst-case scenario.
Last up is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Games that I project to be sure losses (less than a 20 percent chance to win) are in bold italics. Games that are sure wins (80 percent chance to win) are in bold. Afterward, I'll pick a best-case scenario built around the Jaguars winning 75 percent of the toss-up games.
Week 1: @ Minnesota L
I'm not going to pick the Jaguars to win a road game until they prove they can. They won just five road games in three years.
Week 2: Houston L
Do I expect the Jags to beat Houston? No. Can they beat Houston? Absolutely.
Week 3: @ Indianapolis L
If Chad Henne is quarterback after training camp, I'll revisit this.
Week 4: Cincinnati W
The Jags really got a tough batch of home games. That doesn't bode well for a bounce-back season.
Week 5: Chicago W
I think the Jags get feisty and pull off a mild upset at home. I'm not convinced the Bears will be a great road team.
Week 6: Bye
Week 7: @ Oakland L
West Coast road trips are tough, and I think the Raiders might be half decent.
Week 8: @ Green Bay L
Week 9: Detroit L
I don't see how the Jags can keep pace with Detroit. Detroit scored 24 points or more 11 times in 2011. The Jags did it once.
Week 10: Indianapolis (Thursday Night Football) W
I think Henne is the starter by this point in the season.
Week 11: @ Houston L
Again, I don't think Jacksonville can generate the points to win this.
Week 12: Tennessee W
This is a great rivalry, and I think this is a game the Jags win. Four wins in 11 games isn't a bad start for a team that won just five in 2011.
Week 13: @ Buffalo L
Do we know how good Buffalo is? No, but the Jaguars have to earn the benefit of the doubt on the road first.
Week 14: Jets W
I see this game unfolding much the way the Ravens game did last year in Jacksonville. The return of Tebow is an unhappy one as the Jags get a signature win.
Week 15: @ Miami W
Okay, I said no road wins, but I do think Jacksonville improves in 2011 and that means a sixth win. This is a very likely place to find it.
Week 16: New England L
I'm not going to explain this.
Week 17: @ Tennessee L
I think the Titans need this game to make the playoffs, and they get it.
The Jaguars are going to improve in the passing game in 2011. This should translate to more wins. The fact is that they can't actually get any worse. If Blaine Gabbert improves, fine. If he doesn't, Chad Henne takes over and that's still an improvement. If Henne wins the job out of training camp (which could happen despite Mike Mularkey's declaration that it isn't a competition) then I like the Jags for a seventh win.
Projected record: 6-10
Sure Wins: 0 (This is due to an unusually tough slate of home games)
Sure Losses: 5
Best-Case Scenario: 8-8
Worst-Case Scenario: 3-13
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