NBA Mock Draft 2012: How Kentucky Underclassmen Entries Reshape the Draft Class
Now that Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Doron Lamb, Marquis Teague and Terrence Jones have joined Darius Miller in the 2012 NBA Draft class, it's time to take another look at how the first round of the draft will play out.
Starting with the inevitable selection of "The Unibrow" at No. 1 overall and finishing with the Chicago Bulls' selection of a shooting guard to complete their rotation, let's take a look at the latest 2012 NBA mock draft.
Instead of analyzing the games of each player, though, I've decided that it's time to get bold. On each slide, you'll find a prediction for how the entirety of their career will play out.
Yes, some guys are making the Hall of Fame. Don't doubt my crystal ball.
Draft order taken from DraftExpress.com.
1. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Davis
1 of 30School: Kentucky
Position: Power Forward-Center
Year: Freshman
Vitals: 6'10", 220 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 14.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, 0.9 assists
Thanks to his unique combination of skills on offense, his defensive prowess and the fact that he is nowhere near reaching his full potential, Anthony Davis will easily run away with the Rookie of the Year award while actually making the Charlotte Bobcats relevant.
The Unibrow will average at least 18 points and 10 rebounds per game throughout his NBA career, take home a few Defensive Player of the Year awards, garner a number of MVP votes and retire as a Hall of Famer.
2. Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2 of 30School: Kentucky
Position: Small Forward
Year: Freshman
Vitals: 6'7", 232 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists
Yes, that's right. I'm predicting that both the No. 1 and No. 2 players taken in this draft will make the Hall of Fame.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will thrive playing alongside fellow Kentucky standout John Wall, and his fast-break contributions, coupled with his defensive excellence, will help him make the All-Star team as a reserve in just his second season.
When we look back on his career, we'll remember more than just the intangibles, and a debate will rage about how high up he should be in the rankings of the NBA's top-100 players of all time.
3. New Orleans Hornets: Thomas Robinson
3 of 30School: Kansas
Position: Power Forward
Year: Junior
Vitals: 6'10", 237 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 17.9 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists
Here's where the run of Hall of Fame players comes to a screeching halt.
Thomas Robinson will finish third in the Rookie of the Year voting, thanks to some padded statistics that he generates in a starless New Orleans Hornets system. But that may be the high point of his career, as his lack of elite-level upside comes back to bite him.
The former Kansas Jayhawk will start at power forward for almost all of his NBA career and be an above-average player at the position, but he'll never thrust himself into the All-Star conversation.
4. Sacramento Kings: Andre Drummond
4 of 30School: Connecticut
Position: Power Forward-Center
Year: Freshman
Vitals: 6'10", 270 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 10.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, 0.5 assists
And here's the first true "BUST ALERT!!!!!!"
Andre Drummond might have scouts raving over his body, but he has to have a great work ethic to see his physical tools come to fruition. So far, Drummond has demonstrated that he lacks a killer instinct.
Drummond will be given an opportunity to develop, but he'll settle in as a backup defensive center.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal
5 of 30School: Florida
Position: Shooting Guard
Year: Freshman
Vitals: 6'3", 207 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 14.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists
Playing alongside Kyrie Irving on the Cleveland Cavaliers, Bradley Beal will come out of the gates blazing and show within a few years that he and Irving deserve to be mentioned in any and all conversations about the best backcourts in the NBA.
His shooting touch, athleticism, defensive abilities and feel for the game will pay dividends, as Beal develops into an All-Star shooting guard, most likely on the Joe Johnson level.
He'll never be an MVP candidate, and we won't remember him as an all-time great, but the kid has got some serious game, and that's something that the shooting guard-starved NBA is lacking at Beal's position.
6. Toronto Raptors: Harrison Barnes
6 of 30School: North Carolina
Position: Small Forward
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 6'8", 215 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists
Harrison Barnes can score, but he struggles to create his own shot and he's a terrible passer (that's being generous, which is more than we can say about his assist totals).
Thanks to the passing of Jose Calderon, Barnes will score well during his first few seasons in the league, but we'll soon notice that he isn't developing at the same rate we expect from him.
Barnes won't go down in the books as a Darko Milicic-level bust, but he won't justify a lottery selection with his play.
7. Portland Trail Blazers (From New Jersey Nets): John Henson
7 of 30School: North Carolina
Position: Power Forward-Center
Year: Junior
Vitals: 6'11", 220 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 13.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists
John Henson's offensive skills are still developing, and they may always stay in that constant state of flux. The same cannot be said about his defensive abilities and knack for rebounding errant shots.
The former North Carolina big man will settle in as a barely-above-mid-level starter at center and stay at that level throughout his career.
He'll never average more than 12 points per game, but his 10 rebounds per contest and excellence on defense will keep his starting role safe.
8. Utah Jazz (From Golden State Warriors): Jeremy Lamb
8 of 30School: Connecticut
Position: Shooting Guard-Small Forward
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 6'5", 180 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 17.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists
Jeremy Lamb will begin his career coming off the bench in relief of Alec Burks and Gordon Hayward, but he'll soon earn a starting role and won't look back.
With athleticism and a feel for the offensive end of the court, Lamb has every tool necessary to be a great scorer in the NBA. Playing on a team that has a shot to make the playoffs, he'll be motivated to make a contribution each and every night.
The swingman, just like so many other players, will settle in as a starter who won't so much as sniff an All-Star Game.
9. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger
9 of 30School: Ohio State
Position: Power Forward
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 6'9", 265 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 17.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists
Pairing up with Greg Monroe is the best thing possible for Jared Sullinger right now.
The two big men would form a potent offensive duo, and opposing defenses wouldn't be able to use all of their length to slow up Sullinger on the offensive end.
As he continues to develop and get better, a few 20-point, nine-rebound-per-game campaigns are not at all out of the question.
10. New Orleans Hornets: Tyler Zeller
10 of 30School: North Carolina
Position: Power Forward-Center
Year: Senior
Vitals: 7'0", 250 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 16.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists
In this mock draft, I've got both Tyler Zeller and Thomas Robinson going to the New Orleans Hornets in a concerted effort to completely revamp the frontcourt.
While Robinson will be better as a first-year player, Zeller is too smart and too versatile to be held down for long.
As he continues to improve, as he did each and every year while he was at North Carolina, he'll slowly but surely work his way towards the upper echelon of NBA big men. He won't ever make an All-Star team, but he'll get at least a handful of votes from people without family ties or powder-blue allegiances.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard
11 of 30School: Weber State
Position: Point Guard-Shooting Guard
Year: Senior
Vitals: 6'3", 195 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 24.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists
Seeing as how Russell Westbrook is one of my favorite players in all of the
NBA—mostly because of how criminally underrated he is by people who think that "pure" point guards are the only way to go—I'm probably a bigger fan of Damian Lillard than most.
While Lillard isn't as athletic as Westbrook (who is?), he does have the same knack for scoring the ball, even if he has to look off the occasional open pass to do so. It will be tough for Lillard to ever become an All-Star, but 20 points and five assists per game are not unreasonable predictions during his peak.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: Perry Jones III
12 of 30School: Baylor
Position: Power Forward
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 6'11", 235 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 14.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists
I just don't see the consistency necessary to succeed here.
Perry Jones III has flashes of brilliance, but he follows them up with stretches in which you can easily forget that the 6'11" freak athlete is even on the court. The long, grueling NBA season is not going to be good to this big man.
Jones will have the occasional outburst throughout his career, but he'll never hold onto a starting job for an extended period of time.
13. Utah Jazz: Kendall Marshall
13 of 30School: North Carolina
Position: Point Guard
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 6'4", 195 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 7.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 9.7 assists
I have so, so, so many questions about Kendall Marshall's ability to succeed in the NBA over an extended period of time.
Can he play defense well enough to justify his time on the court? Can he score well enough to get enough defensive attention that he isn't a liability? I have no idea.
But, Marshall can pass as well as anyone, and in the right system, like the one in Utah, he'll have a long and productive carer as a starter and not much more.
14. New Jersey Nets (From Houston Rockets): Terrence Jones
14 of 30School: Kentucky
Position: Small Forward-Power Forward
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 6'9", 252 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 12.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists
On a team like the New Jersey Nets, Terrence Jones won't have as many opportunities to get bogged down and mentally check out. He'll be constantly involved in the offense and developing his game until he's the player that many thought he could be when he was a projected Top 5 pick.
Jones is a great defender and an offensive work in progress. If everything goes right, he'll develop into a versatile contributor who averages double-digit points, five rebounds and two assists per game while playing lockdown defense on the other team's best small forward or power forward.
15. Houston Rockets (From New York Knicks): Meyers Leonard
15 of 30School: Illinois
Position: Center
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 7'1", 245 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 13.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists
If Meyers Leonard is drafted by the Houston Rockets, he'll be inserted into the rotation as a backup center almost immediately and develop as he gets his feet wet in the NBA.
It's tough to find many 7'1" basketball players who can properly fill out their frame, but Leonard is undoubtedly one of those. As he adds to his offensive arsenal and continues to bulk up, his game is only going to improve.
Leonard will prove to be one of the steals of the draft when he becomes a fringe All-Star a few years down the road.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Marquis Teague
16 of 30School: Kentucky
Position: Point Guard
Year: Freshman
Vitals: 6'2", 189 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 9.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists
Count me among the believers in Marquis Teague. The young floor general started off his freshman season as a guaranteed lottery pick out of Kentucky. Then, he quickly became the perceived weak link in the Wildcats' championship puzzle before breaking out of his funk and becoming a feared contributor to the squad in the late portion of the season.
Teague is a solid defensive point guard who displays remarkable quickness and shot-creating abilities on offense. As the season progressed in Lexington, he slowly started to make better decisions and play the game with much more intelligence.
On a well-rounded team like the Philadelphia 76ers, Teague will fit in perfectly and become an average starting point guard who averages around 12 points and seven assists per game.
17. Phoenix Suns: Terrence Ross
17 of 30School: Washington
Position: Shooting Guard-Small Forward
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 6'6", 195 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 15.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists
The Phoenix Suns need a star to succeed Steve Nash, and they don't exactly have one on their current roster. Marcin Gortat is the closest thing and he's never going to be a superstar, even if he plays at an All-Star level.
Terrence Ross does have that ability, though. With great intangibles, a knock-down jump shot and tremendous athleticism, Ross could easily make the teams that picked before the Suns regret passing on him.
There is an All-Star campaign in his future, just not multiple ones.
18. Dallas Mavericks: Moe Harkless
18 of 30School: St. John's
Position: Shooting Guard-Small Forward
Year: Freshman
Vitals: 6'8", 208 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 15.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists
I recently wrote a much more fulsome scouting report of Moe Harkless, so I'm going to give it to you one more time here:
"Even though Moe Harkless' name doesn't sound too familiar to the ears of most people discussing the 2012 NBA Draft (yet), he's all but guaranteed to go in the first round of the draft, with serious potential to move up near the lottery. Right now, I can see him going around No. 20 and can't see the Atlanta Hawks passing on him with their first-round pick.
Harkless isn't a particularly skilled offensive player at this point in his young basketball career, though. He struggles to knock down shots from behind the three-point arc and hit only 67.8 percent of his free throws during his freshman season at St. John's.
What he does have, though, is size and athleticism. Harkless has elite levels of quickness and leaping ability, plus fantastic body control when he's in the area. The combination of those three skills allows him to become deadly in transition and when slashing to the basket, either with the ball in his hands or on an off-ball cut.
Harkless also possesses quite the knack for rebounding on both ends of the court. You'll rarely find a player who can capably line up at shooting guard who pulls down 8.6 boards a game as a freshman.
Although his defensive abilities are through the roof thanks to his particular set of skills, I do have to downgrade him a little bit due to the fact that he's fifth on his own team in one category: God's Gift Achiuwa, Sir'Dominic Pointer, Anteh Aryee and Boris Brakalov all have better names.
"
As you can probably tell, I'm a fan of Harkless. He'll be a borderline All-Star down the road if he's given time to develop and will become a great defender, at the very least.
19. Denver Nuggets: Austin Rivers
19 of 30School: Duke
Position: Point Guard-Shooting Guard
Year: Freshman
Vitals: 6'4", 200 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 15.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists
Going to the Denver Nuggets would be the absolute perfect scenario for Austin Rivers. He'd bring his scoring talents to a team that is lacking a single go-to scorer and could contribute from the very first game of his rookie season.
Although Rivers could absolutely end up flopping in the NBA because of his poor decision making, I have to believe that he's going to enjoy a long and productive career as a Jamal Crawford-esque player who can either shoot a team into a game or shoot them right out of it.
20. Memphis Grizzlies: Tony Wroten
20 of 30School: Washington
Position: Point Guard-Shooting Guard
Year: Freshman
Vitals: 6'5", 205 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 16.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists
Capable of playing either point guard or shooting guard, Tony Wroten will probably be doing more of the former than the latter throughout his career with the Memphis Grizzlies.
Wroten's passing ability and creativity around the rim should do wonders for his long-term success. He'll be given his fair share of opportunities and will settle in as the first guard off the bench.
Unless he develops a jump shot.
21. Orlando Magic: Dion Waiters
21 of 30School: Syracuse
Position: Point Guard-Shooting Guard
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 6'4", 218 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 12.6 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists
Dion Waiters' ability to get to the rim will make him an intriguing option on offense throughout his career, but it won't be enough to hide his shortcomings throughout the rest of his game.
The former Syracuse Orange will never earn much playing time because of his lack of passing ability from the guard position that he will inevitably line up at. He was also a decent defender in college thanks to his quick hands and feet, but I have a gut feeling that Jim Boeheim's fearsome zone defense boosted his defensive reputation a little more than it should have.
Waiters will stick around on NBA rosters, but don't expect to hear his name too often after draft day.
22. Atlanta Hawks: Jeffery Taylor
22 of 30School: Vanderbilt
Position: Small Forward
Year: Senior
Vitals: 6'7", 225 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 16.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists
As an Atlanta Hawks fan, I am required to claim that whomever they draft will make it to the Hall of Fame.
Do I actually believe that? Please don't ask me...
23. Boston Celtics: Evan Fournier
23 of 30Team: Poitiers
Position: Shooting Guard-Small Forward
Age: 19
Vitals: 6'7", 206 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 13.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists (In Pro A France)
Evan Fournier is another one of those guys who I recently profiled, so here it is:
"If there's any international prospect who has a chance at being drafted during the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft, it's Evan Fournier.
We won't have an opportunity to see the swingman play at the Nike Hoops Summit this year because he's electing to continue to play for Poitiers and help the French team avoid the embarrassment of relegation from Pro A France.
The thing working most to Fournier's advantage is his size. His height may be listed a bit conservatively at 6'7", yet he still plays with the ball skills of an average point guard.
Ultra-aggressive in getting to the rim to make up for his lack of touch from downtown, Fournier just seems like a natural basketball player, with the way he feels out the game and then makes the right decision in almost every situation.
With enough toughness to be a good defender, Fournier is a jump shot away from potential stardom.
"
That jump shot I talked about in the above quote is going to develop, and Fournier will become an All-Star before it's all said and done.
24. Boston Celtics (From Los Angeles Clippers): Royce White
24 of 30School: Iowa State
Position: No idea
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 6'8", 270 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 13.1 points, 9.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists
Just like I wrote for his position, I have absolutely no idea how Royce White's career is going to play out in the NBA.
He could become the next superstar in the league, or he could flame out after just one disappointing season and move on to the next phase of his life.
I just don't know.
25. Indiana Pacers: Arnett Moultrie
25 of 30School: Mississippi State
Position: Power Forward-Center
Year: Junior
Vitals: 6'11", 230 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 15.8 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.1 assists
Arnett Moultrie is another one of the most interesting prospects in this draft class because of the varying opinions. Some mock drafts put him in the lottery, while others, like mine, have him way down at No. 26. Personally, I just can't see general managers overlooking all the mental red flags.
But, if those red flags disappear, Moultrie's talent is immense enough to justify that potential lottery pick. He's either going to have a career filled with 80-start seasons or find himself out of the league in just a few years.
There doesn't seem to be much opportunity for what comes in between.
26. Cleveland Cavaliers (From Los Angeles Lakers): Festus Ezeli
26 of 30School: Vanderbilt
Position: Center
Year: Senior
Vitals: 6'11", 255 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 10.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 0.3 assists
With Bradley Beal already added to the roster, it's time to address the deficit at center, seeing as Tristan Thompson and Anderson Varejao are both better suited for the power-forward position.
Festus Ezeli can fill in this hole for the Cleveland Cavaliers, but he'll never develop into anything more than a consistent starting option, much like Anderson Varejao is now. Ezeli has great defensive skills, but his offense is still very much in development.
27. Miami Heat: Fab Melo
27 of 30School: Syracuse
Position: Center
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 7'0", 255 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 7.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 0.7 assists
Fab Melo could potentially land in the perfect situation with the Miami Heat.
He would never need to score the basketball (and couldn't possibly be worse offensively than Joel Anthony, Dexter Pittman, Eddy Curry or any of the other old bodies the Heat are throwing out at center these days) and could focus on his biggest talent: playing defense.
Melo doesn't have the offensive game necessary to become an All-Star, but a few All-Defensive selections are by no means out of the question.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Draymond Green
28 of 30School: Michigan State
Position: Small Forward-Power Forward
Year: Senior
Vitals: 6'7", 230 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 16.1 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists
Draymond Green just seems like one of those players that you don't bet against, and that will just become doubly true if Sam Presti spends a draft pick on him.
Green's versatility all but guarantees that he will find a home on a team for the long haul. He may never be a true starter, but he could become a very valuable seventh or eighth man in a rotation.
On a team like the Oklahoma City Thunder right now, that's all he needs to be.
29. Golden State Warriors (From San Antonio Spurs): C.J. Leslie
29 of 30School: NC State
Position: Small Forward-Power Forward
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 6'8", 209 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 14.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists
The Golden State Warriors are in an interesting situation because it doesn't really behoove the franchise to draft any position besides small forward. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, David Lee and Andrew Bogut make that clear.
With Quincy Miller dropping out of the sweepstakes, Jeffery Taylor and Moe Harkless jump up accordingly, and the Dubs are forced to reach for C.J. Leslie here.
He'll prove that this is a bit too early by never blossoming into anything more than a Dorell Wright-level small forward, much to the chagrin of the Warriors.
30. Chicago Bulls: Doron Lamb
30 of 30School: Kentucky
Position: Shooting Guard
Year: Sophomore
Vitals: 6'4", 210 pounds
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 13.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists
If you think about the player that Doron Lamb was at Kentucky, then you're already thinking about the player he's going to be with the Chicago Bulls.
Lamb is a gifted scorer who plays perfectly within the flow of the offensive system he's in. He won't force up too many bad shots and he rarely has off nights. The presence of Derrick Rose will make his job even easier.
With his defensive abilities and knack for scoring, Lamb will be the final piece to the upcoming 2013 NBA championship for the Bulls.
He'll continue to have a terrific career while thriving just outside of the spotlight.





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