Philadelphia Phillies: Why It's Premature to Proclaim the Dynasty Dead

Well, this isn't exactly the start that we were hoping for.

The Phillies have struggled out of the gates early on in this 2012 season, which has understandably brought out some panic and frustration among Philly fans. More troubling, though, is that these early struggles are being cited as an omen signaling the end for the Phillies' dynasty.

While I agree that some of the current team's shortcomings have been highlighted these first few games, I think it's way too early to say the 2012 Phillies are "done," that they don't have a shot at winning a championship or that their run of success in the National League is coming to an abrupt close.

In the next few slides, I'll go over why I don't think it's time to freak out just yet, and why some of the common worries about the Phillies and their farm system are overblown.

Call me an optimist, but I think this team will be alright. 

Age Is a Concern, but These Guys Aren't 80

Buster Olney tweeted on April 6th that the Phillies had the second oldest team in the Major Leagues, based on the average age of their Opening Day roster. The Yankees were the oldest at 31 years and 228 days, then the Phillies at 30 years and 363 days and in third were the Angels at 30 years and 328 days.

How come no one is freaking out about the Yankees and Angels being old and creaky, being too old to compete or being on the verge of falling off?

Yes, not all of the Phillies' players are 23-year-old rookies anymore, but the Phils aren't fielding a team of Moyers either.

Sure, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are 35 and 33 respectively, but they take incredible care of their bodies, and they aren't the guys people are worried about. 

Shane Victorino is 31; Jimmy Rollins is 33; Ryan Howard is 32; Chase Utley (admittedly a different case because of his knee condition) is 32.  Placido Polanco is 36, but this is his last year under contract, so it's not like he's being counted on to hold up in the future.

The Phillies' key position players are not geezers, over-the-hill or due for a humongous and imminent drop-off. Based on ages, these guys are all in the range of "their primes," even if J-Roll might be more at the end of that prime spectrum.

"Old" is not a 32-year-old Ryan Howard or a 33-year-old Jimmy Rollins. Chipper Jones is old, and even he hit .275 with 18 homers last year at age 39.

The "Depleted" Farm System Is Not as Big a Deal as You Might Think

Another common concern cited as the reason the Phillies will not be able to compete much longer is the lack of top-level prospects at the top of their farm system.

It doesn't matter.  

The Royals and the Pirates have been stockpiling high draft picks and stud prospects for years now, and their collections have had little impact in terms of playoff appearances and actual success on the field so far.

Prospect ratings are an opinion, not a science. For every top-rated player like Evan Longoria that actually goes on to be super successful, there are guys like Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez was the eighth-rated prospect by Baseball America entering the 2010 season, but has only compiled a .228 career average with 21 home runs as he begins his third major league season.

Heck, Dom Brown was one of the top two or three prospects in baseball according to any list last season, and he hasn't exactly achieved superstardom yet.

As I pointed out in the last slide, the Phillies' key players aren't that old. It's not like they need players to step in right away. They do have some young studs down in the ranks, especially some arms like Trevor May, Brody Colvin and Jesse Biddle, who should be ready to step in a couple years from now when this team's current nucleus is finally done.

Shane Victorino wasn't a highly-prospect. Neither was Carlos Ruiz or Vance Worley. I'd say they turned out alright.  

Have some confidence that the guys drafting and grooming the players throughout the Phils' farm system know what they're doing.

Ruben Amaro Jr. Knows What He's Doing

Though he has a nasty tendency of outbidding himself sometimes (see Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and Jonathan Papelbon's contracts), Ruben Amaro Jr. is a pretty damn solid GM.

Rube usually knows what pieces the Phillies need to win, and doesn't hesitate to go out and get them. In recent seasons he has picked up Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence via trade. More importantly though, the "bounty" of prospects Amaro gave up in each trade have never really turned out to be much of anything.

Do you really miss Jason Donald (now 27 with five career home runs and a .270 average), Lou Marson (.216 career average) and Carlos Carrasco (10-15 record, 4.93 career ERA) that much? Sure, Donald would be a nice utility outfielder to have right now, but remember that the Phillies gave him up to get Cliff Lee. That's a trade you make every time.

What about Kyle Drabek (5-8 record, 5.61 career ERA) and Michael Taylor (.200 average and one home run in 30 big league at-bats)? J.A. Happ (5.35 ERA last season) hasn't been doing too great for the Astros either.  

Granted, some of those players are still young and have time to turn their careers around, and the jury is still out on some prospects who haven't made it to the majors yet like Jonathan Singleton, Travis D'Arnaud and Jarred Cosart. Still, the players that Ruben Amaro Jr. traded away haven't exactly come back to haunt the Phillies.

Plus, Rube has shown a willingness to restock the farm system, even at great expense. There is no greater example of this than when he sent Cliff Lee to the Mariners for some prospects after acquiring Roy Halladay.

Basically, the man knows what he's doing. He knows how to build and improve a winner without giving up too much. There's a reason the Phillies' win total has increased every year since 2006.  

Rest assured that if there's any possible move he can make to help the Phillies win in 2012 and beyond, Ruben Amaro Jr. will strongly consider it.

It's Not a Sprint, It's a Marathon

The Major League Baseball season is long. It's really, really long.

There's a reason the best team is crowned champion in baseball more often than in any other sport. Take the NFL for example. When you only play 16 games a year, plus a couple winner-take-all playoff games, there's way more room for luck to get involved.  

A mediocre team can get hot and win four playoff games in a row pretty easily. That's why there is so much parity in football and why the NFL is so popular in so many markets. Any team can truly get lucky and win on "any given Sunday."

When you play 162 games, followed by some five and seven-game playoff series, things are a little bit different.  

Sure, teams will still get lucky and unlucky and have streaks where they win or lose five games in a row, but playing so many games eliminates a lot of the randomness that shows up in other sports. The best teams are bound to win a majority of those games, and they won't be hurt too much by a few unlucky breaks.

So, dear friends, do not panic too much if the Phillies continue to struggle early on in 2012. I know it's frustrating to watch our beloved Phils struggle to score, blow leads and look hopeless.  

They have five-and-a-half more months to figure it out. Give it some time people. The first 10 games do not definitively dictate an entire season.

The 1-5 Red Sox will win a few more games this season. The 4-2 Mets are not World Champions. Don't stick a fork in the 2-3 Phillies just yet.