Mocking the 1st Round of Your 2012 Fantasy Draft, Pre-Draft Edition

This year's fantasy football drafts will be the most unique drafts. Ever.

That's because as many as four quarterbacks and a tight end could be taken in the first round.

In a prior article, I mocked out 16 different ways the first five picks could go. Now it's time to mock out the entire first round and see how the first round could look.

For each pick in the first round, I will provide the following info:

- Current ADP, based on an average from four different mock drafts and Fantasy Football Calculator

- My prediction of that same player's ADP in August

- Where I would personally take that same player

On that last point, I'll go into greater detail of my value strategy as we get closer to late July/early August. But I'll give a high-level view here, which will give you a flavor of what I'm thinking.

There's a lot of info to cover here, so let's get started.

1. RB Arian Foster

Current ADP for the first overall pick: Arian Foster

Foster was as high as first overall and as low as fifth overall in the mock draft sources I found.

Predicted August ADP for Foster: second overall

By August, the hype machine for Aaron Rodgers will be in full swing, and I fully expect Foster to drop to second overall in ADP by then. But Foster's status as elite fantasy RB will keep him high on draft boards.

Where I would take Foster: fourth overall

I never thought I'd say this in fantasy football, but the elite quarterbacks offer a better value with the top pick. The difference between the No. 1 fantasy running back and the No. 7 fantasy running back (the average RB1) is just 4.2 fantasy points per game (FPPG).

However, the difference between the No. 1 fantasy quarterback and the No. 7 fantasy quarterback (the average QB1) is 11.5 FPPG—as much as having an extra RB1!

2. RB Ray Rice

Current ADP for the second overall pick: Ray Rice

Rice was as high as first overall and as low as sixth overall in the mock draft sources I found.

Predicted August ADP for Rice: third overall

With Rodgers and Foster gone, I think Rice will be next to go when August drafts roll around.

Where I would take Rice: sixth overall

After the top three quarterbacks (Rodgers, Brady, Brees), Foster and McCoy are gone, Rice is the next safest value pick. He's durable, catches passes and has no backup threatening to vulture anything; Rice is a slam-dunk first-round pick.

3. QB Aaron Rodgers

Current ADP for the third overall pick: Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers was as high as first overall and as low as seventh overall.

Predicted August ADP for Rodgers: first overall

Take it to the bank: Come August, most cheat sheets will say Rodgers is first overall.

Where I would take Rodgers: second overall

Sounds crazy to not rank him as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback for next year, but doing so would be simply predicting in a reactive manner rather than a proactive manner.

First, no fantasy quarterback has finished No. 1 in back-to-back years for at least the past three years.

Second, I would rank Rodgers No. 1 if the teams remained the same as last year. But we know that's not how the NFL works.

If the Packers improve their defense in the draft (as many expect) or take a running back, I suspect Rodgers will finish 2012 with gaudy numbers once again—just not as gaudy as in 2011.

Two of the reasons the Packers threw so much was because their defense was among the worst in the league, and their running game was ineffective.

4. RB LeSean McCoy

Current ADP for the fourth overall pick: LeSean McCoy

McCoy was as high as third overall and as low as fifth overall in the mock draft sources I found.

Predicted August ADP for McCoy: fourth overall

With Rodgers, Foster and Rice off the board, McCoy is likely to be the fourth player taken.

Where I would take McCoy: fifth overall

With the top three quarterbacks gone, as well as Foster, McCoy is fifth on my list.

5. RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Current ADP for the fifth overall pick: Maurice Jones-Drew

Jones-Drew was as high as fourth overall and as low as sixth overall in the mock draft sources I found.

Predicted August ADP for MJD: sixth overall

After not getting a lot of love in last year's cheat sheets, Jones-Drew is going to get a ton of love this year. That is what you call reactive, not proactive, fantasy analysis. And with Laurent Robinson to help take some of the defensive focus, there is a logical reason to make MJD the sixth pick overall.

Where I would take Jones-Drew: 10th overall

Call me a rebel, but Jones-Drew's fantastic fantasy season in 2011—16.3 FPPG—was only 3.0 FPPG better than the RB six places below him (Ryan Mathews).

If Jones-Drew's outstanding year had such a marginal advantage over the 11th-best fantasy back, then I'm not banking my fifth overall pick on him. Imagine how much I'll overpay if MJD does not have another great season.

6. QB Drew Brees

Current ADP for the sixth overall pick: Drew Brees

Brees was as high as second overall and as low as 12th overall in the mock draft sources I found.

Predicted August ADP for Brees: seventh overall

Due to head coach Sean Payton's yearlong suspension for Bountygate, expect Brees to fall to this seventh spot overall when August cheat sheets come out.

Where I would take Brees: third overall

Payton or no Payton, Brees will operate a familiar offense in 2012. There will surely be a slight drop-off in production—he set a passing yardage record in 2011—but there's no reason to expect a significant drop.

Brees has been one of the top two fantasy quarterbacks in two of the past three years, and his 29.3 FPPG in 2011 was 9.0 FPPG better than the eighth-best fantasy quarterback—equivalent to having an extra RB2 on your team.

7. WR Calvin Johnson

Current ADP for the seventh overall pick: Calvin Johnson

Johnson was as high as fifth overall and as low as eighth overall in the mock draft sources I found.

Predicted August ADP for Johnson: fifth overall

The hype for Calvin Johnson will be intense come August, while expectations for Brees will temper a bit.

Where I would take Johnson: 11th overall

Don't follow the usual fantasy football advice by spending your mid-first round pick on Johnson. The wide receiver position is very deep.

And Johnson's monstrous 2011 season—15.5 FPPG—was only 4.0 FPPG better than the seventh-best fantasy wideout (Steve Smith). Tip: Get better value from your pick than that.

Johnson will never fall to 11th overall in a draft, but that's where his value actually lies.

8. RB Matt Forte

Current ADP for the eighth overall pick: Matt Forte

Forte was as high as fifth overall and as low as a second-round pick in the mock draft sources I found.

Predicted August ADP for Forte: second-round pick

With Michael Bush potentially vulturing touchdowns (if not touches), Forte's value takes a big hit come August.

Where I would take Forte: second-round pick

Last year, Forte was inspired to play for a big payday and produced an outstanding 14.1 FPPG, despite Marion Barber vulturing six goal-line scores. Yet despite the big campaign, Forte only produced 2.2 FPPG more than the 15th-best fantasy back.

Bush comes in to Chicago off a more accomplished season than Barber did, so expect Bush to get more touches as a Bear than Barber did, further making Forte not worthy of a first-round pick.

9. QB Tom Brady

Current ADP for the ninth overall pick: Tom Brady

Brady was as high as seventh overall and as low as a second-round pick in the mock draft sources I found.

Predicted August ADP for Brady: ninth overall

An old veteran who lost last year's Super Bowl, there's some lost luster on Brady, dropping him to around the ninth overall pick in fantasy drafts.

Where I would take Brady: first overall

You read that right. Brady has been among the top three fantasy quarterbacks in each of the past three seasons, and he just got another passing weapon in receiver Brandon Lloyd.

Even if the team drafts a running back, this team's identity is still pass-first.

And his 27.7 FPPG in 2011 was 7.4 FPPG better than the ninth-best fantasy quarterback—like having an extra WR2.

10. RB Marshawn Lynch

Current ADP for the 10th overall pick: Marshawn Lynch

Lynch was as high as eighth overall and as low as a second-round pick in the mock draft sources I found.

Predicted August ADP for Lynch: second-round pick

I think quarterback Matthew Stafford and tight end Rob Gronkowski will move up into the first round by August, bumping Lynch down into the second round.

Where I would take Lynch: fourth-round pick

I don't have any objective reason for this, but I just think Lynch will be one of this season's busts. Call me a cynic, but I just don't see Lynch duplicating his success in 2012. In the fourth round, Lynch might be a good value, but even then, I'm not sure I would take him.

I've had a good track record in the past with projecting potential busts, and I personally would rather avoid Lynch altogether and let someone else take their chances on him.

11. RB Chris Johnson

Current ADP for the 11th overall pick: Chris Johnson

Johnson was as high as ninth overall and as low as a second-round pick in the mock draft sources I found.

Predicted August ADP for Johnson: second-round pick

As with Lynch, I expect Gronkowski and Stafford to crash the first round cheat sheets come August, pushing Johnson down to the second round.

Where I would take Johnson: fourth-round pick

Johnson as a top-10 pick right now is a shocker to me. After a highly disappointing 2011 in which he came up small even against some good matchups, I think Johnson has fallen off a cliff. He lacks burst and explosion, and he appears to dislike contact.

I don't buy the holdout/lockout theories as reasons for his poor play last year, as running backs need the least amount of time among offensive skill positions to get ready.

I'd rather let another owner assume the risk/reward of Johnson making a comeback. In the second round, that risk is still too great. In the fourth round, Johnson may have appropriate value.

12. WR Andre Johnson

Current ADP for the 12th overall pick: Andre Johnson

Johnson was as high as ninth overall and as low as a second-round pick in the mock draft sources I found.

Predicted August ADP for Johnson: second-round pick

The Gronkowski hype machine, along with Matthew Stafford riding the wave of the quarterback hype machine, will put Johnson in the second round come August.

Where I would take Johnson: third-round pick

In my mind, the days of Andre Johnson being a first-round pick are over. Frequently injured and playing with a similarly brittle quarterback, Johnson is too unreliable to spend a first-round pick on.

Controlling for games missed due to injury, Johnson averaged 10.0 FPPG—which was only good for 18th among fantasy wide receivers, about a mid-range WR2.

As I mentioned earlier, wide receiver is deep for fantasy this year, and there are plenty of better—and safer—options than Andre Johnson in the second round. He may be worth considering in the third round.

Recap

Below is a summary with easier-to-visualize lists.

Here's how the first round currently mocks, based on ADP:

1. RB Arian Foster
2. RB Ray Rice
3. QB Aaron Rodgers
4. RB LeSean McCoy
5. RB Maurice Jones-Drew
6. QB Drew Brees
7. WR Calvin Johnson
8. RB Matt Forte
9. QB Tom Brady
10. RB Marshawn Lynch
11. RB Chris Johnson
12. WR Andre Johnson

Here's how I predict the first round will mock in August:

1. QB Aaron Rodgers
2. RB Arian Foster
3. RB Ray Rice
4. RB LeSean McCoy
5. WR Calvin Johnson
6. RB Maurice Jones-Drew
7. QB Drew Brees
8. TE Rob Gronkowski
9. QB Tom Brady
10. QB Cam Newton
11. QB Matthew Stafford
12. WR Larry Fitzgerald

And here's how I would personally take players in the first round:

1. QB Tom Brady
2. QB Aaron Rodgers
3. QB Drew Brees
4. RB Arian Foster
5. RB LeSean McCoy
6. RB Ray Rice
7. TE Rob Gronkowski
8. TE Jimmy Graham
9. QB Cam Newton
10. RB Maurice Jones-Drew
11. WR Calvin Johnson
12. RB Ryan Mathews