Oakland Athletics: Forecasting the Team's Defense in 2012

While the rest of Major League Baseball has a bit more leeway to begin their seasons, the Oakland Athletics already have two games under their belts. After a short two-game series in Tokyo, Japan, the team gained a brief glimpse at what lies ahead for them for the remainder of the season.

Oakland will resume its spring training alongside the rest of the MLB. This gives them some time to continue evaluating its players and candidates to fill out their roster for the remainder of the season. During the next couple of days, the A’s will be able iron out their starting lineups and pitching rotation, and bone up on all the little things to improve their offense, defense and overall pitching.

As the Athletics’ United States season opener awaits, let’s forecast how the team’s defense will look for the 2012 campaign.

Catching

Kurt Suzuki is a very talented young catcher. He calls and manages games like no other, handling the carousel of young pitching staffs that have passed through Oakland during his four-plus seasons in the big leagues.

Defensively, Suzuki has all the right tools. He’s durable, he’s smart, he’s fundamentally aware, if not sound, and he has decent arm strength and foot speed behind the plate. He led the American League in appearances and putouts as a catcher in both 2008 and 2009, and he was projected to be one of the league’s top young catchers for quite some time.

Somehow, however, Suzuki’s performance has waned, even under the tutelage of former manager Bob Geren, an ex-catcher during his MLB career. In 2010, Suzuki’s fielding percentage fell to .991, the sixth-best mark in the league, mostly a result of his eight errors (second-worst in the AL) and seven passed balls (worst in the AL). Last year, he improved ever so slightly: .993 fielding percentage, seven errors, five passed balls.

What is more alarming to the A’s is Suzuki’s regression in throwing out potential base stealers. Last season, Suzuki allowed 98 successful stolen base attempts—most in the AL. The 27.9 caught-stealing rate was right around average—but a far cry from his 2008 campaign, when he flagged down 36.8 percent of would-be base stealers. What gives?

Hopefully new manager Bob Melvin, another former MLB catcher, will be able to offer some guidance to Suzuki to improve his defense. Again, Suzuki definitely has the physical make-up to reduce his number of throwing errors, especially when attempting to nail runners who are trying to steal second base.

It’s obvious in some instances that Suzuki is overthinking, overdoing and generally over-trying while he’s in the motion of throwing out runners. He needs to heed the old adage of keeping it simple, and everything else will take care of itself.

One thing’s for certain: Opposing runners will be ready and willing to move on the A’s pitching staff as a whole. And with Suzuki behind the plate, other teams’ base stealers will be licking their chops.

If Suzuki can improve his caught-stealing percentage close to one-third, it will only help an Athletics team that will be struggling to score runs of their own. If the A’s can limit the number of runs scored by the opposition by reducing the number of stolen bases allowed, it can only help increase their team’s chances of winning close ball games.

2012 Forecast: Rocky. While nobody works harder at honing his defense than Kurt Suzuki, it’s hard to figure out whether he’ll improve or not. He obviously has the potential, as evidenced by his 2008 and 2009 fielding stats, but at 28 years of age, maybe this is the best that Suzuki can offer on the defensive end.

The A’s are thankful that he is able to handle the young pitching staff year in and year out, and that is the team’s primary focus. If he happens to throw out more base runners, then that’s icing on the cake.

Infield

Over the past couple of seasons, there has been much praise thrown in the direction of the Athletics infielders. Daric Barton was allegedly one of the most gifted fielding first baseman and Cliff Pennington is touted as a wizard at shortstop. Meanwhile, second baseman Jemile Weeks is considered a flashy and talented defender, despite playing less than a full season in the majors.

All that extolment fell for naught last season, as Oakland’s defense committed a league-high 124 errors—a high percentage of which came from their “vaunted” infield. Barton committed eight errors in only 65 games, Pennington committed 22 errors—second-highest in the AL—and Weeks, despite only playing in 96 games, made 13 errors at second.

All told, A’s infielders committed 83 errors as a unit. What gives? The entire Tampa Bay Rays team had 73 errors.

Needless to say, an emphasis on the fundamentals will be a clear focus as the A’s revisit training camp this weekend. All of the Oakland infielders, including Adam Rosales and Eric Sogard, have strong arms and should ideally have little trouble in making the throws. The problem is the accuracy of their throwing.

Pennington and Weeks, especially, fall into the category of making the tough plays look easy, while making the routine plays look...un-simple. Their glove work as a double-play combo is stellar, but toward the end of the season, they showed that fatigue might play a factor in their accuracy. Many of their errors were the result of errant throws.

As for the corner infield spots, Barton is a talented first baseman and should be able to cut down on his mistakes. He has a tendency to try to make difficult plays, like gunning runners who are attempting to advance an extra base, only to see his throws make rounds in the vast foul territory of the Oakland Coliseum. Though he is not the everyday starter, he can make an impact defensively in late-inning situations. Co-first baseman Brandon Allen is not very sharp with the glove, and Barton will need to be serviceable in close ball games.

Third base is a bit tricky for Oakland, as whomever is positioned there is not really a third baseman by trade. Sogard is definitely capable, but he might be more strongly suited as a middle infielder. Rosales, meanwhile, has a very strong arm, but he often has mental lapses in his accuracy to first base. Look for the A’s to struggle defensively in the infield—again.

2012 Forecast: Windy. There will be a lot of throws that will be out of reach for whomever is playing first base—and a lot of throws by the first basemen that will not reach their intended targets. Blame it on the inaccuracy of their arms or blame it on the wind, but Oakland’s infield defense will not improve dramatically in 2012.

Outfield

What happens when you move a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder to left field, bring in a free-agent Cuban defector in center field and employ a platoon of players in right field? The Oakland A’s are about to find out in 2012.

Coco Crisp, the man in the middle throughout his entire career, has been moved from his normal center field position to left field, in order to accommodate the comfort of free-agent import Yoenis Cespedes. This is no knock on Crisp and his defense. In fact, it’s a sign that the A’s trust Crisp in left field more than they do Cespedes. But will it work? And can Crisp be comfortable in his own right knowing that he’s not the everyday center fielder anymore?

Crisp should be able to figure out left field with ease. The only issues will be the gappers in left-center field, when Cespedes will likely call off Crisp, but Crisp may not hear those directions. Outfield collisions? Oops.

The two center fielders are talented enough to make it work. And Crisp is a veteran who should be professional enough to make it work. It’s up to him to ensure that the outfield is as smooth as possible, at least in the two-thirds that he and Cespedes occupy.

As for right field, there are no real expectations for whomever is patrolling that side of the baseball field. Jonny Gomes, Seth Smith and others will each see some time in right, and none of them would be considered legitimate threats defensively. Gomes has a career .980 fielding percentage as a right fielder; Smith’s is .977. Yucky.

The A’s will not have solid performances in the outfield, especially if Cespedes is in center and not Crisp. If Crisp were to remain in center field, he’d be able to conduct the outfield with a calmer abandon, making up for lapses on either side of him. But Cespedes is still learning the basics of the Major Leagues, and he’ll require some time to adjust to each stadium, each hitter’s tendencies and each of his own pitcher’s scouting reports.

It will be a rough go of it in the outfield for the Athletics.

2012 Forecast: Patchy clouds. With an entirely remodeled outfield, it’s hard to know exactly how they’ll figure out their defensive assignments. Crisp will have to let go of the reigns as the outfield captain, passing the baton to the rookie Cespedes. Will they be able to coexist?

While they are each gifted enough, there will be some missed balls, some bad angles and some errant throws. Partly sunny, partly cloudy. Partly good, partly bad.

Overall Defense

The Oakland A’s defense was the worst in the American League last season. And even under the guide of manager Bob Melvin, who is renown for his focus on the fundamentals and the little things of baseball, the Athletics were unable to improve their accuracy or their fielding.

With an outfield that is a bit makeshift with new assignments, an infield that is still quite young and a catcher that potentially could be a mediocre fielder throughout his career, the A’s will likely commit another ton of errors in 2012. They may not lead the league again, but it’s almost certain that they’ll collectively amass over 100 mistakes again.

It’s going to be a stormy season for the A’s defensively.

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