Fantasy Baseball 2012: Busts from Each Division

Every year, without skipping a beat, a fantasy baseball manager will find disappointment in his early first or second round pick. When drafting, consistency is the key but it is easy to be swayed by the flashy numbers.

A bust is not a player you expect to succumb to regression due to age as he enters the uncomfortable "past his prime" stage of his career. Any decent fantasy baseball owner expects this when drafting. A bust, as I will predict, are players on the rise that have become so popular, that their expectations far exceed their potential outcome.

Here are players from each division who are sure to upset the willing manager that drafts them.

AL East: Jacoby Ellsbury

As a life long, stone cold Boston Red Sox Fan, it pains me to say Jacoby's unbelievable 2011 campaign will transform into a bust in 2012. That should be enough to prove to you how strongly I feel about this.

In 2011, Ellsbury produced .321AVG-32HR-105R-119RBI-39SB—as a lead off hitter!

Throughout Ellsbury's climb as a prospect, scouts have touted him as a five tool player with tremendous upside—but with only "decent" power. I believe this to be true. I cannot imagine Jacoby replicating his power numbers when he has never hit more than 10 home runs in a season. Although he will still be a very good fantasy player, I consider him a bust due to his ADP of around 8. Let's not forget he is also injury prone throughout his young career. In a very deep position, drafting Ellsbury in the first round will only lead to you hanging your head in modest disappointment.

AL Central: Asdrubal Cabrera

Asdrubal Cabrera started the 2011 season on a complete tear. The second half of the season on the other hand—.244AVG-11HR-41R-32RBI-5SB.

In Asdrubal's first 1,415 at-bats he hit only 18 homers—a much larger sampling of his true power rather than the 25 homers he hit in his past 604 at-bats.

Although short stop is a very thin position when it comes to power numbers, Asdrubal will still not be nearly worth the draft pick he will receive. Expect to see a stat-line much more similar to his career averages of .281AVG-8HR-57R-56RBI-9SB.

AL West: Yoenis Cespedes

I explained in a previous article about avoiding Yoenis Cespedes early in the draft, and more specific reasons why he will be a bust. All in all, Cespedes as the talent and certainly looks the part of a five tool player. However, we have seen time and time again what the move to the MLB does to these hyped foreign players.

On a more important note—Yoenis plays for quite possibly one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. With Willingham, Matsui, and DeJesus leaving Oakland, there isn't much support for Cespedes within this lineup. Add the lack luster offensive support with the move to the much more talented competition in the MLB, and it all but certainly equals bust.

NL East: Stephen Strasburg

He is back and so is the hype.

The biggest reason I think Strasburg will be a bust is because of the immense amount of hype he receives. Given the very significant chance that Strasburg will see an inning cap, he will instantly become less valuable than the many pitchers that will be drafted after him.

The numbers should be intriguing—but what do we really have to base that assumption on other than a small sampling? As early as I have seen Strasburg go in mock drafts, he has very high potential to be a bust.

NL Central: Lance Berkman

I realize I previously stated I am not taking age into consideration to qualify as a bust, but I feel Lance berkman's case and an exception.

With Pujols leaving, Lance will most likely be the man to carry the burden of replacing his power numbers. Not an easy task to fulfill.

Lance Berkman does have an injury risk with knee issues, and a move to first base should help, but at the age of 36 injuries can become even more prevalent. Numbers don't exactly progress at such a high age either.

Berkman will still be a valuable member to a fantasy roster, but players are more often than not drafted by their previous season's statistics. This leaves Berkman being drafted a lot earlier than deserving in the majority of leagues. Age, weaker lineup, and undeserving draft pick just yell bust.

NL West: Tim Stauffer

Stauffer is a bust for one simple reason—his splits. At home, he was 6-5 with a 2.57 ERA in a very pitcher friendly park. On the road however, he was 3-7 with a high 4.96 ERA. Before the All-Star break, he had a very pleasing and surprising ERA of 2.97 giving fantasy owners hope—then spiraling in disaster posting a horrific 5.05 ERA.

Since a lot of fantasy managers will remember missing out on Stauffer early last year, they may forget how his season came to such a messy end and draft him too high for the talent he actually brings to the table.

Unless you smartly use Stauffer on your rotation during his home games—taking up a valuable roster slot—he will be a bust.