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Must Draft: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez
You Should Not Fear Drafting
Prince Fielder (DET): Prince finds himself on a team with less speed, fewer offensive weaponsand is now located in an unfriendly park for left-handed hitters. With all that said, it's still Prince Fielder. You may see his numbers drop ever so slightly, but should still expect 110 R, 35 HR, 110 RBI and an AVG of .295. No worries here.
Eric Hosmer (KC): Hosmer may not have the gaudy power numbers like Prince Fielder, but he has tremendous upside. With his ADP of 52 in mind, he could be an absolute steal in the fourth to fifth round. Hosmer should produce solid numbers with 80 R, 25 HR, 95 RBI and an AVG hovering around .300.
Michael Morse (WSH): Another player with huge upside and a very undervalued ADP at 82. Drafting Morse in the sixth or seventh round could be the best pick of the draft. With eligibility at OF and 1B—and producing numbers in 2012 to the tune of 90R, 35 HR, 90 RBI, .285 AVG—Morse is as good as they come in the middle of a draft.
You Should Avoid Drafting
Lance Berkman (STL): Last year Lance Berkman froze time. I do not see him producing like he did in 2011 with Pujols no longer protecting him. Age will catch up with Lance this season in what is a very strong and youthful field at 1B. I expect modest numbers close to 75 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI and .280 at the plate. Those numbers do not compensate for the possibility he falls off the radar this year.
Kevin Youkilis (BOS): As a Bostonian, this pains me. The facts of the matter, though, are too convincing—declining numbers, injury concerns and the prescence of age in his game. Kevin will still be a solid player, but the injuries force me to say stay away from him. The numbers won't be all that great either—70 R, 20 HR, 70 RBI and .275 batting.
Freddie Freeman (ATL): Sorry Atlanta fans, I am not sold on this guy. I havent seen the numbers backing up his projections and the power isn't all that great. He is compared to Eric Hosmer—but why? A stat line projection of 70 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI and .280 AVG doesn't put him on my team at 1B.