NFL Playoff Picks: Heated Rivalries Renewed and Other Nonsense

Baltimore at Tennessee (-3)

Great win for Baltimore last week, I hope they had fun, because this week is not going to be fun.  I said it last week and it bears repeating:  The Ravens win the games they are supposed to win and lose the ones they are supposed to lose.  Baltimore is 0-5 this year against teams with a better record and 10-0 against teams with a worse record.  They are more predictable than the ending to Slumdog Millionaire.

Tennessee must feel like the most forgotten 13-3 team in the history of the NFL.  People only want to talk about their three losses.  Well, underestimated and underappreciated teams are dangerous, especially well coached, balanced ones.  With 13 wins.  At home.  I think they roll here, this is my blowout of the week.  Titans.

Arizona at Carolina (-10)

Arizona can’t win for winning.  They surprise everyone with a win over Atlanta and still no one takes them seriously.  And should we?  With Boldin out, no defense and a horrendous record on the East Coast, do they have any chance against a rested and balanced Carolina team?  No.  Ten points seems too low, but maybe they match up well. 

The only competitive game they played on the East coast was the 27-23 game at Carolina.  I would argue that the Panthers have improved since that game, whereas the Cards are the same if not worse.

Carolina was 8-0 at home this year.  They have one of the most balanced offensive attacks and a great defense.  On paper, they’re the best team in football.  But as I’m always reminded, they don’t play football on paper, but as I try to explain, paper is just an expression meaning that statistically Carolina looks great, but some people don’t like the metaphor. 

Anyway, Carolina has everything going in their favor this game and I know it seems too easy, like making fun of Blagojevich’s hair, but just take the money.  Panthers.

Philadelphia at Giants (-4)

Uh-oh Philly phans, you spent all year trying not to buy into this team, its quarterback and its coach.  You held out as long as you could, but now they’re in the second round of the playoffs and playing your hated rival, and you’re thinking just maybe we’re gelling at the right time.  I’ve been there as a Jets fan.  This is where they really crush your spirit. 

After this game is when you say “Never again!  Never again will I care or become emotionally attached to this stupid team.  Get rid of McNabb and Reid, I can’t take it anymore!”  Just trying to lessen the blow that’s coming Sunday, sorry.

Funny thing, the Giants have been the undisputed best team in football all year.  Then they lose a couple of meaningless games towards the end of the season when their star wide receiver goes insane dragging their defensive leader down with him, and the underrated key to their offense is out. 

Well, they’re past Plax now, Pierce is focused again and Jacobs is mad and motivated.  Plus, people are actually picking the Eagles here.  So the best team in football has its offensive and defensive leaders back, people are second-guessing them and they get to avenge a home loss to a hated rival?  Giants.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-6)

Like or hate Philip Rivers, (and he’s hard to like and easy to hate), you have to give him credit for his guts and gumption.  Just a great performance by a team that was 4-8.  As much as we don’t like their players or their celebrating, you have to root for a team coming back from the dead like this. 

So many “what ifs” could’ve stopped them.  What if Denver could beat the Raiders at home, what if Herm doesn’t blow an 11-point lead with less than two minutes left, what if Indy wins the coin toss last week, just amazing. 

Now the Chargers are going to Pittsburgh, where they almost won earlier in the year and suddenly a win does not seem that much of a stretch.

Pittsburgh is most people’s favorite in the AFC.  That’s reason number one why not to like them.  Plus, they played and won several close games this year and that has a way of evening out, just look at the Chargers in reverse who lost several heartbreakers early this year. 

Add to that, Roethlisberger coming off a concussion.  They call it a minor concussion (easy for them to say), but he never plays well coming off injuries. 

Lastly, in close playoff games, special teams become a huge factor and the difference between these two teams couldn’t be wider.  I will actually be shocked if the Steelers win this one. 

So what I’m saying is, take the moneyline, and I always take the points, but just this time, take the odds.  Chargers.