10 Ways the Philadelphia Phillies Can Avoid Another First-Round Exit

One stinking run.

The Phillies, as we are all well aware, couldn't score a single run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the deciding game of last year's NLDS.  They couldn't score a run to save their season, to back an absolutely clutch and inspired performance from their ace, or to protect the collective sanity of their fans.

And so it was that the team with the most wins in Phillies' history, the team with the four aces that were supposed to tear up and rewrite the history books, couldn't even make it past the first round of the playoffs.

But life goes on, the months go by, and baseball is reborn every Spring.  2012 gives the Phillies a chance for a fresh start; a new opportunity to win the World Series title they fell so disappointingly short of in 2011.  

With last year's loss to the Cardinals still probably fresh in all of the Phillies' memories, here are 10 ways they can avoid another first-round exit this year. 

Stay Healthy

Obviously, every team wants to stay healthy during the season.  It's highly unlikely that any manager has ever thought, "Hey, you know what would be great?  If all of my infielders got turf toe, my pitchers all tore their MCL's and every outfielder on the roster contracted dysentery that kept them out for months."  

So while the Phillies were probably planning on staying healthy anyway, it's still crucial to their postseason success.  Chase Utley needs to be given enough time off so that his knees can actually generate enough power to hit home runs.  Ryan Howard needs to be given enough time to fully recover so that he can come back at full strength and every other player needs to cross their fingers that they don't develop sports hernias or require Tommy John surgery.

This Phillies are an old team, and with the valuable experience that many seasons in the Major Leagues brings, also comes tons of bumps and bruises.  Charlie Manuel needs to be careful not to overwork his team, as we've already seen almost every important player on the Phillies' roster miss some time over the last couple of seasons.

The Phillies are becoming increasingly fragile, and must be handled with care if they are going to have enough left in the tank for the postseason.

Use the Bullpen, Preserve the Starters

In a similar vein to "staying healthy" is "preserving the starters."  While I realize that a large part of the Phils' success is the result of the innings pitched by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, I also know that the Phillies won't be able to win a World Series if any of their arms fall off.

Teams have bullpens for a reason, and the Phillies should have a pretty good one in 2012.  Charlie Manuel needs to resist the urge to leave his starters in for eight or nine innings every single game, and maybe take Roy Halladay out of games once in a while when his pitch count gets up to 120.  

Both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee pitched over 230 innings last season, and while it's nice to see them leading the league in innings pitched and complete games, both are entering their mid-30's.  The Phillies need these guys to have something left in their arms for the playoffs and the rest of their contracts.  

I'm not saying not to let the starters pitch complete games if their pitch counts are low, or if it's necessary for a win; I'm just saying that if the game is in hand, if their pitch counts are way up there, or if Papelbon is ready, to take them out.  

Their arms are too valuable to be toying around or running up stats with.

Come into the Playoffs Hot

Though the playoff rules are changing this season, Wild Card teams have historically been quite successful in the playoffs (look no further than the 2011 Cardinals).

A big part of their success is likely that they are usually fighting for a spot in the playoffs right up until the end of the season.  While a lot of division winners are already resting up for the playoffs, these teams are playing their best and most crucial baseball of the year.

Last year, prior to winning their final four games of the regular season, the Phillies actually lost eight games in a row, and nine of ten overall; three of those losses came to the Cardinals, who likely took the confidence from those wins into their playoff matchup with the Phils. 

While resting players is a nice luxury to have at the end of the regular season, that rest shouldn't come at the expense of a team losing their edge.  For the Phillies to have success in the playoffs, they'd be best served by entering the postseason hot.

Stay Focused All Year Long, No Offensive Droughts

A disturbing trend with the Phillies the last few seasons is their annual offensive swoon.  It seems like the hitters just lose focus, all slump at the same time, and start pressing to put runs on the board during the summer.  

I don't know what it is—maybe winning so much breeds a certain sense of complacency that comes out during that point of the season—but those offensive droughts sometimes put players in funks that they never seem to fully come out of.  For the Phillies to get past the first round of the playoffs in 2012, they need to avoid any sort of prolonged, team-wide offensive slump.

They need to be able to score at least a couple runs to support their pitchers.  

Inject Some Power into the Lineup

One byproduct of the offensive slumps the Phillies have fallen into the last couple of years is an erosion of the power we have grown accustomed to seeing from this lineup.

It's weird to think about, but with Ryan Howard missing a decent amount of time, Chase Utley's knees very questionable, and Jimmy Rollins five years removed from his MVP season in 2007, the Phillies might not have a single player that hits 30 home runs in 2012.

Hunter Pence may be their best hope for a 30 home run season, and he is a prime example of what Ruben Amaro Jr. and Charlie Manuel must look to do in 2012: inject some power into the Phillies' lineup.  Brought over in a mid-season trade last year, Pence provided a shot in the arm for the Phils' offense.  

But with Ryan Howard likely out for a chunk of this upcoming season, the Phillies will need to find a way to replace his power. Finding that power is essential to the ultimate success of this years team, whether it comes from putting Jim Thome at first base often, giving a guy like Domonic Brown a shot, or Rube making another mid-season trade.

Maintain Fielding Prowess

The Phillies gave up an average of only 3.27 runs last season, and with the absence of Raul Ibanez that number could be even less in 2012.  

Certainly, great pitching is a factor in not giving up many runs, but so is solid fielding.  The Phillies have committed relatively few errors the past couple of seasons, and must maintain a similar level of defensive prowess in order to be successful again in 2012.

With the usual great fielders (Rollins, Victorino, Polanco, etc.) all back, and with the potential for one of the faster outfields in baseball (Brown, Mayberry, Pence, Pierre, Podsednik, Victorino), the Phillies should literally be in good hands when it comes to playing the field. 

In particular, any speed upgrade over Raul Ibanez in left field should help the Phillies get to a lot more balls that would have dropped for hits last season.

Pile on the Runs When They Get There

The Phillies scored 11 runs in their Game 1 win against the Cardinals last year.

They scored 10 runs in the rest of the series combined.

The Phillies were actually up 4-0 in Game 2, and put up two quick runs in the first inning of Game 4, though they were threatening to put up a couple more.  The point is, the Phillies had chances to put the Cardinals away in a couple of games, but just sort of let up on the offensive end.  

Scoring a couple of runs in the beginning of a game is nice, but most teams that are good enough to make the playoffs can withstand a team's opening salvo and come back to make it a game again.  Even in the regular season, the Phillies have to be able to pile on runs in 2012 to put teams away. 

It's not enough just to take the lead against good teams—you have to bury them.

Have Great Pinch-Hitting

Pinch-hitting is huge in the playoffs.  Any kind of contribution off the bench late in games when runners are on base, the score is close and offenses may be stifling can swing a game and a series.

In fact, Ben Francisco essentially won Game 3 of last year's NLDS with his pinch-hit three-run homer.

For a team whose big offensive pieces couldn't get it going in the playoffs, the Phillies really could have gotten a huge lift from having some consistent power on their bench; unfortunately, Ben Francisco's heroics aside, they didn't really have many options.  Ross Gload didn't hit a home run all season, Wilson Valdez hit .249 with one home run, and Michael Martinez and Brian Schneider each hit under .200.

You can bet Ruben Amaro and Charlie Manuel made it a point to upgrade the bench this offseason, as they added Laynce Nix, Jim Thome and Ty Wigginton.  Other possible bench players include Domonic Brown, Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednik.

The ability to generate offense and provide a spark off the bench will be integral to the Phillies' success in 2012.

Don't Rush Ryan Howard Back

Despite the temptation to get their top power threat back to action, the Phillies must not bring back Ryan Howard until he is absolutely, 100 percent ready to play again.

It's no secret that this offense is at its most dangerous when Howard is launching homers, spanking doubles to the opposite field and generally just doing things that don't involve writhing on the ground and grabbing his Achilles tendon.

However, the Phillies need an effective Ryan Howard—a cautious Ryan Howard who is limiting himself or is not as strong as he needs to be is no good.  They can't take the risk of their franchise first baseman re-injuring himself and missing the season's stretch run.  Besides, I'd rather have 100 percent of John Mayberry at first base—and probably even 100 percent of Ty Wigginton—than 60 or 70 percent of Howard.

If this team can stay near the top of the pack and get a full-strength Ryan Howard back mid-season, it will basically be like going out and acquiring a big offensive piece at the trade deadline, and it could really put them over the top going into the playoffs.

Stay Hungry, Play with Attitude

This last suggestion is a bit harder to put in words, as attitude is something less tangible than the ability to hit home runs off the bench or properly field ground balls.

Basically, the Phillies need to stay hungry, play with attitude and use their loss to the Cardinals last season as fuel.

I don't know if winning the World Series in 2008 made some of the key players less hungry, if the pressure of being one of the top teams year in and year out is getting to guys, or if other teams all just get up to play the Phillies.  Regardless, this team needs to find that grit and fire they had in '08.  They can't just be content with their past successes or with having a good regular season.

The Phillies need to embrace the target on their backs in 2012, not wilt under its weight.  They need to want to win championships for guys like Halladay, Lee and Thome.  And they need to have a mean streak—they need to say, "Yeah everyone wants to beat us, but you know what? We're not going to let them."