2012 Expectations: Can the Toronto Blue Jays Win the AL East?

Since 2007, the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees have all won the AL East at least once (Boston 2007, Tampa Bay 2008, New York 2009, Tampa Bay 2010 and New York 2011), while the runner up in each of those seasons was the wild-card winner. 

The Toronto Blue Jays hope to end this trend and appear ready to be a force in arguably the toughest division in baseball.

Last season, the Blue Jays finished the year 81-81, 16 games behind the New York Yankees. Their Achilles’ heel was their bullpen as they combined for 25 blown saves. Clearly, the game plan for GM Alex Anthopoulos this offseason was to bolster his bullpen. 

Toronto’s major acquisition during the offseason was former White Sox closer Sergio Santos. Last season, Santos went 4-5 with 30 saves in 36 opportunities. He also struck out 92 batters in 63 1/3 innings, and hitters only batted .181 against him — a major upgrade over Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch, who combined to go 6-5 with 28 saves and nine blown save opportunities.

The Jays also signed former Reds closer Francisco Cordero, who went 5-3 last season and was 37 out of 43 in his save opportunities. He’s a solid option to close out games if Santos pitches on consecutive days or struggles. 

In addition, the Blue Jays also reacquired Jason Frasor and signed left-handed specialist Darren Oliver. Along with holdover Casey Janssen, Toronto now boasts one of best bullpens in the American League. 

If the revamped bullpen is able to reduce last season’s 25 blown saves by 10, that would put the Jays in 90-plus win territory. 

Outside of Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow who should combine for 30-plus wins, the rotation looks a little thin on paper as Brett Cecil is slotted to be the No. 3 starter with Henderson Alvarez, Kyle Drabek and Dustin McGowan competing for the final two spots in the rotation.  

Last season Cecil struggled to a 4-11 record, but in 2010 he went 15-7. If he could recapture his 2010 form, it would go a long way towards helping the organization reach the next level. However, a .500 season should be a more reasonable expectation from him.

Henderson Alvarez was only 1-3 in 10 starts last season, although six of them were quality appearances (three earned runs or less in six or more innings). In four of those starts, the Jays provided him with only one run to work with, losing three of those games. If Alvarez can provide the Jays with a similar line 3.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP for a full season, he could provide the club with 12 wins.  

Kyle Drabek and Dustin McGowan remain wild cards for the Jays. Each player has filthy stuff, however, Drabek has struggled to find consistency and McGowan has had difficulty staying healthy the past few seasons. Toronto fans hope this will be the year where one or both of these studs can finally put it all together. 

If their wish is granted, Toronto could boast a formidable staff — perhaps similar to the Tampa Bay Rays 2008 rotation that featured James Shields, Andy Sonnanstine, Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson and Scott Kazmir. 

Toronto’s 2012 lineup will look close to this:

1 SS Yunel Escobar

2 2B Kelly Johnson

3. RF Jose Bautista

4 1B Adam Lind

5 3B Brett Lawrie

6 CF Colby Rasmus

7 C J.P Arencibia

8 DH Edwin Encarnacion

9 LF Eric Thames

Contrary to the pitching staff, the Blue Jays lineup appears very solid on paper. With the exception of Escobar, Lawrie and Thames, everyone has had season(s) with 20 or more home runs. The Jays will put up some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Offensively they are led by Jose Bautista—currently the most dangerous hitter in the AL East.  Although he did not match the 54 home runs and 124 RBI he had in 2010, he still managed a more dominant season last year by hitting .302, 43 HR, 103 RBI and 132 BB (32 more than in 2010) in 12 fewer games. The Jays will also benefit by having Brett Lawrie for a full season. Last year he posted a .293 average with nine homers, 25 RBI and seven stolen bases in just 43 games. 

Last season, the Jays were 77-35 when scoring three runs or more, but only 4-46 when scoring two or less. Any lineup is prone to struggle during the year, however, it is doubtful that the Jays will again be held to two runs or less in 50 games this season. If the team can reduce that number by 10 and can win half of those games, then that’s another five victories that can be added to their overall total. 

The AL East appears vulnerable for the first time in years. 

The Baltimore Orioles are still a few years and pieces away from competing. They have assembled a promising staff featuring young arms Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz and imports Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada. The club will have their share of growing pains with the young staff for at least a couple seasons.  However, budding superstars Adam Jones and Matt Wieters provide the organization and their fans plenty of optimism moving forward.

It remains to be seen if Boston will be able to recover from their meltdown last season. With the exception of Andrew Bailey replacing Jonathan Papelbon as the team’s closer and some minor tinkering, their roster remains largely intact. Boston will compete, but they appear to have lost the aura they once held in previous seasons. 

The New York Yankees solidified their staff with the acquisition of Michael Pineda and the signing of Hiroki Kuroda. Ace CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes round out what should be a respectable staff. However, the Yankees are also another year older. Last season, we saw injuries and age hamper Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. Could more of the same happen this year? 

The Tampa Bay Rays have the best pitching staff in the AL East. Lefty David Price leads the way and is followed by James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann and potential Rookie of the Year candidate Matt Moore. 

Offensively, the Rays look solid as well with Evan Longoria, BJ Upton and Ben Zobrist leading the way.  A full season of left fielder Desmond Jennings (and his potential 50 SBs) will also wreak havoc on the opposition, while the addition of former Ray Carlos Pena and Luke Scott will further solidify their lineup.  The path to an AL East division title may very well have to go through the Tampa Bay Rays. 

The Blue Jays have the potential to win the AL East this season, however they need several things to fall in place. First, their rotation must be able to consistently pitch deep in games so the bullpen isn’t overtaxed. Second, the bullpen must also be able to protect leads after the seventh inning. Third, in games when the pitching struggles, the offense needs to be able to bail them out. Lastly, some luck.  The team cannot afford any substantial injuries, and if a few players can also put together career years then the Jays may have all the ingredients to win the AL East. 

Prediction:  Tampa Bay Rays win the AL East

                    Toronto Blue Jays earn the second wild-card spot.  

Your Thoughts:  Who will win the AL East?