Why the Detroit Lions Should Franchise Tag and Trade Free Agent Cliff Avril

In Detroit Lions forums all over the internet, the main talking point is what Detroit will do about the high profile free agents they have this season. With key defensive contributors in Stephen Tulloch and Cliff Avril both hitting the open market in a couple of weeks, and Detroit having one of the most prohibitive cap problems in the league, the front office will have to think hard about who to re-sign and who to cut.

The player who is getting the most press is Cliff Avril. The Lions right end has exploded these last two seasons as a pure pass-rusher who has found his niche as a outside speed rusher, and has been dominating ponderous right tackles with his speed and burst. However, his gaudy sack totals have made him a very overrated player. According to Pro Football Focus, in 2011 he earned 41 percent of his pressures against the woeful offensive lines of Minnesota and Chicago, and in the five games in which he faced top right tackles, he recorded just five pressures.

Avril has been able to get to quarterbacks with regularity in 2010 and 2011. His breakout season coincided with the arrival of Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch, and with them came the end of double teams focusing on Avril. As outlined in this article by Dean Holden, Ray Edwards came from a similar situation in Minnesota last season and struggled in Atlanta, while Brian Robison replaced him opposite Jared Allen and was just as effective.

Now, Avril's production indicates that he should be able to succeed if he stays in Detroit. However, it is no secret that he will not come cheap this offseason, and the Lions are likely to be able to get comparable production from current players like Willie Young and Lawrence Jackson, free agents like Andre Carter or Jeremy Mincey or rookies like Andre Branch or Tyrone Crawford. In short, on a defensive line with the quality of the Lions, paying a long-term contract to a one-dimensional outside pass-rusher would be a waste of money, given Detroit's salary cap woes. However, that does not mean that the Lions should not give Avril the franchise tag.

While giving a tag that would count $10.6 million against the Detroit Lions' cap is a risk, it is safe to say that Cliff Avril will be one of the most sought after free agents this year. His combination of production, athleticism, age and versatility will make him the second rated pass-rusher behind Mario Williams in the sack-obsessed NFL of today. The fact that he played linebacker for a season in college and has the size to move there as a pro will also pique the interest of pass-rush needy teams like the Arizona Cardinals and San Diego Chargers, who run a 3-4 defense.

This means that Avril will probably have a high trade value, as every team in the league could vie for his services. For some context, the most recent pass-rushers to be traded are a past-his-prime Jason Taylor and Jared Allen. Taylor was worth a second- and fourth-round pick, while Allen, who had just had a 15.5 sack season for the Kansas City Chiefs, was sent to the Vikings for a first-rounder and two third-round picks. It would be safe to assume that Avril's value sits somewhere in between these two players. It would seem unlikely that any team other than the New England Patriots would give the Lions a first-round pick for Avril, but two second-rounders, or a second- and third-round pick represent good value to the Lions, while also leaving our trade partner with their top selection. Meanwhile, the Lions would get some compensation for their development of Cliff Avril from a third-rounder to a double-digit sack pass-rusher.

In conclusion, it makes sense for the Lions to sign and trade Avril. His skill set and age means they will be nearly certain to move him, and since it's unlikely that they'll be able to sign him in the offseason, they might as well get some value from him. Getting two second day picks would give Martin Mayhew the firepower to either trade into the first round and get another blue chip player, or take some talented developmental players in positions of need and prepare to make a deep playoff run.