I'm wondering if my next statement is good news, or bad news.
I've got a long and storied history in the world of NFL handicapping...
Translation—Either the man making the bogus claim is trying to say he's really good, or really old. Most likely, both. Maybe that's why I always fell asleep in history class at school. I always got so bored with history.
Funny how times change. But I digress...
Yes sir, I've enjoyed the NFL and the sport of handicapping the NFL for quite some time now. The most interesting thing I've learned in all those years of tryin' to pick winners?
Leave your affiliation with your favorite teams at home when you're handicapping games.
Case in point—unfortunately, I've made a few enemies among my Charger brethren by wagering against the San Diego Chargers in certain spots. In my own defense, I offer this lil' tidbit of drivel: Who would know best about when the team's going to get their A$$ kicked?
You got it.
Now, for history's sake, when it comes to the 2008 San Diego Chargers, I've not made one play with OR against the team this season. Just for reference, I'm not suggesting in any way, shape, or form, that this upcoming Steelers-Chargers game is a betable football game. Quite the opposite.
I'll have no play on this game, a game that currently sits at Steelers -6, O/U 38.0, with the Steelers -260/+220 on the moneyline, courtesy of Oddsmaker.com.
Also, as far as my history of selections through Bleacher Report is concerned, I have only suggested one pick (because I've only been here one week), shown in this link (the selection being Baltimore -2 vs. Miami.)
So why, you ask, would any of this drivel be of any importance? Simple. Thoroughly handicapping a game is the best way to get an idea of how the game will look, once that 1:45pm PST kickoff takes place.
For my money, the best way to analyze this upcoming Steelers-Chargers game, or any football game, for that matter, is to get into the minds of the two teams.
How do they think?
What do they like to do?
What have they looked like?
What have they done all season, especially against each other?
With that in mind, let's break down Steelers-Chargers.........
When the Steelers Have the Ball
Right away, we find out the one reason this game is at -6, and may even go to -6.5, by game time: The Steelers' offensive philosophy, and how it compares to what they'll try to get done against the Chargers' defense.
Right up front, neither one of these two teams has a ton of surprises for the other. We ain't talkin' Boise State here.
These teams already know what the other is going to try. Pittsburgh, especially, isn't one of those teams that relies on a lot of tom-foolery and Wildcat-like stuff when they have the ball.
They'll bring their lunch pail on Sunday. You know what they're going to do, and they know what they're going to do, too. They're going to try to control the game. Off-tackle plays, swing passes, and the Ward / Miller combo. Hell, this shouldn't surprise anyone.
What Mike Tomlin and company want to do in this game is control the ball, work the clock, maintain a positive time-of-possession advantage. They know the Chargers are 31st in the NFL defending against the pass (with only the University of Notre Dame being worse), but that doesn't matter to the Steelers.
Oh, yeah, they'll throw the ball when they want to, sometimes when they have to, but they're going to make their mark on this football game on the ground. With Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore and Gary Russell, they've got the horses to do just that—control the clock.
All Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers want to do on Sunday is win. They're not going to care how (although they'd prefer that their defense totally dismantles the Chargers), they just want to win. The best way for Pittsburgh to do just that is to attack San Diego on the ground.
The San Diego defense has taken many shots over the bow when it comes to their pass defense, but their run defense would be where I would be most concerned. Statistically, they're currently ranked 11th against the run, allowing an average of just over 100 yards per game. That's not too terribly bad.



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