Chicago Cubs 2012 Preview: Analyzing the Starting 9 and the Pitching Staff

The Chicago Cubs enter 2012 with new leadership and hope for the future. But the expectations for this season is understandably low. While I have written that the team could surprise this season, the rebuilding process will take some time.

To change the culture of the organization from top to bottom is a lengthy process that requires everyone buying into the new Theo Epstein manifesto entitled "The Cubs Way". Above all, it requires an infusion of fresh talent.

The farm system won't be stocked overnight, and while the coming season could certainly benefit from guys like Matt Garza sticking around, the farm rebuild could get a boost from moving Garza for multiple prospects.

That said, this season still has to be played, so let's take a look at each position, and the pitching staff, to see what's in store for the team in 2012.

1st Base: Bryan LaHair

With Anthony Rizzo waiting in the wings, he is unlikely to make the opening day roster. First base will likely be manned by Bryan LaHair, who is young in experience yet 29 years old.

He is obviously no longer considered a prospect, and is likely just going to keep first base warm until Rizzo, who was brought up too soon by Jed Hoyer in San Diego, is ready.

But if LaHair starts raking, the Cubs will be hard pressed to replace him midseason, though that would be a nice problem to have.

Meanwhile, LaHair hit .331/.405/.664/1.070 at Iowa last season, with 38 home runs. With the Mariners’ organization, LaHair was once considered to be a top power-hitting prospect, but can he finally reach that potential with the Cubs?

Epstein seems to be a fan. If nothing else, it will allow for valuable development time for Rizzo.

2nd Base: Darwin Barney

Barney is one of those feel-good stories about a guy who hustles, plays the game the right way and is that little engine that could. But I don't see him as a long-term starter in the big leagues.

In the ideal situation, Barney would be a useful utility players, but the Cubs don't really have anyone to take the position away from him at this point.

So, barring a trade or unexpected development, there will be a Barney manning second base on Opening Day, and no, it won't be a big, purple dinosaur.

In 143 games in 2011, Barney hit .276/.313/.353/.666, showing little patience or power, drawing only 22 walks and hitting just two dingers. He faded over the last two months of the season.

Barney did play solid defense, and the advanced metrics liked him, as he produced a 5.8 UZR/150, third best in the NL.

Jeff Baker can also play second base, and he is a useful bat against left-handed pitchers. was designated for assignment, but he could still compete as a non-roster invitee.

The Cubs also picked up the left-handed hitting Adrian Cardenas off Oakland's roster in February.

The 24-year-old hasn't had an at-bat in the majors yet, but over six seasons in the minors, he has hit .303/.368/.413/.780. A former first-round pick of the Phillies, Cardenas played second and third base, shortstop and left field.

However, the PCL is known for inflated batting stats, and his wRC+ shows he was basically a league-average player.

Shortstop: Starlin Castro

I doubt that Castro will be distracted by the ongoing legal troubles facing him. So far, he has met for seven hours with authorities and hasn't been charged with a crime yet.

With that put aside for the moment, there are two sides to Castro for the Cubs to consider. Offensively, he has a quick bat and developing power that should allow him to hit around .300 with eventual 15-20 homer numbers every year.

But defensively, he needs to cut down on errors and his mechanics need to improve. He has a tendency of backing up on the ball and not charging it aggressively.

If he bulks up, I could see him eventually switching to third base, as he does have the arm to play there.

The only other issue for the Cubs to concern themselves with here is Castro's tendency to let his mind wander during games.

But losing focus, though captured embarrassingly on national television last season, could just be a youthful issue that will go away as he matures.

Remember, he turns 22 in March.

3rd Base: Ian Stewart

The Cubs are hoping that Stewart is a bounce-back candidate after a lost 2011 that has been at least partly blamed on a bad wrist that has since apparently healed.

I like the low-risk move of taking a chance on Stewart. He will at least be an upgrade defensively over Aramis Ramirez, and he does have power potential if fully healthy.

Defensively, Stewart produced a UZR/150 of 10.7, though that was in only 284 innings. UZR wasn't so kind to Stewart in 2010, however.

If his injuries are behind him and he can return to the form he displayed in 2010, he can be a 1.5 WAR player again. Another thing to keep in mind is that Stewart has a BABIP of just .224 in his very limited time in 2011, so hit in some bad luck.

In 2010, he hit .256/.338/.443 with 18 homers. While those numbers won't knock your socks off, it would make him better than replacement-level for a reasonable investment.  

If Stewart stumbles, could Josh Vitters see his first action in the majors? Vitters still has that sweet hitting stroke that made him a top prospect when initially drafted in the first round of the 2007 draft.

But he doesn't walk and he needs to use his lower half more to generate some power.

Defensively, he may need to move to first base, but that won't play for the Cubs since 1) they have Rizzo waiting in the wings, and 2) he doesn't yet have the power profile to play first.

Catcher: Geo Soto

Geovanny Soto has been somewhat of an enigma. He seems to post decent numbers every other season, but his defense and calling of a game has always been in question.

One thing about Soto is that, unlike other Cubs prospects, he has a good sense of the strike zone. Maybe that's why he's a catcher, eh? His OBP is more important to examine that his batting average.

But as Soto starts to get more expensive, Epstein and his guys will be looking at Soto with a critical eye. The challenge is that good hitting, good fielding catchers are extremely hard to find.

The other challenge is that the Cubs really don't have anyone ready to come up from their own system that seems to be better than Soto.

Welington Castillo is the one who is major league ready, it seems, and he will be the backup this season. The jury is out on whether he is a viable replacement for Soto. But at least the Koyie Hill experiment is over.

Castillo seemingly has been the top Cubs catching prospect forever. He will be 25 in April, so it's time to see what he can do. He has power and a great throwing arm, though he is still somewhat raw with the glove. His  strike zone judgment could also be an issue, but I'd like to see more of him in 2012. 

Left Field: Alfonso Soriano

Oh, how I wish someone would take Soriano off the Cubs' hands without the team having to eat his entire salary, but so far it doesn't look promising. That means we're stuck with him for at least one more season as the starting left fielder.

Defensively, he's bad—everyone knows that. And offensively he's also bad. But here is where some Cubs fans tend to disagree.

Some point to the home runs and RBI and say that in this current lineup devoid of power, he is at least serviceable for those reasons alone.

But I say nyet, and that's not because I'm German (I'm not). It's because he was awful offensively in 2011.

First off, forget about RBI. That statistic is largely dependent on who gets on base in front of a hitter, so it's not useful in analyzing the value of an individual player.

Secondly, an on-base percentage of .289 is terrible. How terrible? Only nine everyday player had a lower OBP. Now, of those nine, Soriano had the most homers (26) so I'll give him that.

But since the objective of a plate appearance in MLB is to not make an out, Soriano fails at the rate of about 71 percent. Even in a game where even the best players fail most of the time, that's not good.

Center Field: Marlon Byrd

Byrd is a serviceable player (there's that term again), and he won't break the bank with his salary, so I would think the Cubs could move him if they wanted to.

He's apparently lost weight this winter and is said to be in great shape. And while his power numbers were down in 2011, he plays a decent center field and is a real good clubhouse guy.

But he turns 35 in August and obviously isn't part of the youth movement at Wrigley Field. Also, there is a prospect waiting in the wings.

So while Byrd may be the word, Brett Jackson is also a word (actually, a name) for Cubs fans to watch for in 2012.

Along with Rizzo, Jackson is the Cubs top prospect and projects to be an above average major league regular. But when  is he going to get his chance?

Perhaps, if he has a solid spring, the Cubs will trade Byrd and plant Jackson in center. Or, he may come up after the All-Star break.

I do expect to see him at some point in the season, assuming he stays healthy and productive in the minors.  

Right Field: David DeJesus

The affable DeJesus was the first major free-agent signing by the new regime and plays good defense in right field. UZR loves him—he was the highest-ranked right fielder in baseball in 2011. 

Offensively, the left-handed hitting DeJesus doesn't have a lot of power—he slugged .376 last season—but he has good plate discipline. The new "Cubs Way"—OBP, good character, solid defense.

A career .284 hitter, he dipped to just .240 last year with Oakland, coinciding with a drop in BABIP. His BABIP in 2011 was a decent .274, but over the prior three seasons he averaged .333, so he has either run out of luck or didn't like hitting in Oakland.

There is a ton of foul territory in Oakland and his .268 BABIP in his home ballpark could be improved by his move to Wrigley.

At two years and $10 million, signing DeJesus was a reasonable investment, and while he won't light it up, he should be a solid contributor for the Cubs this season.

The Starting Rotation

Ah, the critical starting five. It's where the rubber meets the road. And the fact that they pitch off a rubber would seem to indicate that much.

While the Cubs traded away head case Carlos Zambrano, he did have some value at times in the Cubs rotation, so while his attitude won't be missed, they needed to ensure themselves of depth for the rotation in 2012, and they appear to have done that, provided they hang onto Matt Garza.

Speaking of Garza, he leads this staff. He had a very solid 2011, even if that wasn't reflected in his win total, which is a bad way to measure a pitcher's value anyway.

While it's a good idea for the Cubs to continue to explore Garza's trade value to see if he could quicken the rebuild of the farm system by adding two or three high quality prospects to the organization, the Cubs also could very well sign him long term.

For the sabermetrically inclined, Garza posted career bests in WAR, FIP- and xFIP- in 2011.

As for the rest of the rotation, it's not as pretty, to be sure. Ryan Dempster returns, though he will need to improve some really poor numbers to earn his contract in 2012.

Joining Garza and Dempster are Travis Wood, Chris Volstad and Paul Maholm. Randy Wells is next in line should anyone of the back end falter.

Jeff Samardzija is supposed to be in the mix for a possible starting job as well, though I think he'll stick in the bullpen once again.

Wood came from Cincinnati in the Sean Marshall trade. At 25, the lefty has yet to live up to his potential, as over his career he is 11-10 with a 4.18 ERA.

Meanwhile, the 6'8" Volstad looks like he should be wearing a Bulls uniform. For his career, he is 32-39 with a 4.59 ERA.  

Maholm is another lefty who was 6-14 with the Pirates but posted a respectable 3.66 ERA.

The Bullpen

The bullpen was a major part of the team's downfall in 2011.

John Grabow is gone, thankfully. They also lost Sean Marshall in a trade to the Reds, so the bullpen will need to have some guys step up or it could be another long season.

Carlos Marmol was shakier than an alcoholic in between drinks last season. He led baseball in blown saves. His control was bad and he lost a couple miles per hour off his fastball.

Marmol is either unhittable, or he's walking everyone in sight. But Cubs' management claim they're committed to him as the closer next season.

Meanwhile, Kerry Wood returns as the eighth inning setup man. If he can stay relatively healthy (one can never say totally healthy when talking about Woody), he will rack him the holds.

I believe that Samardzija will return to the pen next season after his best performance last season.  James Russell will be the primary lefty out of the bullpen. He has been much better as a reliever than he was a starter, that's for sure.

Trevor Miller is a lefty specialist who signed a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He will only make the team if one of the other, younger lefties (such as Scott Maine or John Gaub) vying for a spot don’t break camp with the team.

Chris Carpenter is a power arm who can light it up but has control issues. Manny Corpas may continue to build arm strength in the minors and return later in the season.

Marcos Mateo is out of options so the Cubs will have to figure out what to do with him. Wells could make the team as a bullpen arm if he doesn't stick in the rotation.

Finally, Andy Sonnanstine  signed a non-guaranteed split contract earlier this winter with the Cubs. If he ends up on the active roster, it will be as a reliever, possibly competing with Wells for the long relief role.