Golden State Warriors: How Good Can Their Recent NBA Draft Picks Be?

In the final part of my three-article series about the Golden State Warriors' drafting history since 1990, I'm going to take a look at the five selections that the franchise has made in the last four years.

So far, I've analyzed all the picks that the Dubs have made and come up with the 10 best picks and the 10 worst picks, all based on a formula that you can find fully explained on either of those two articles.

If you haven't checked either of them out, I would highly recommend doing so before clicking through this one so that the next seven slides make more sense. 

Once you've done that, read on to see how the seven most recent picks fit in.  

Brandan Wright (No. 8 in 2007)

Because of an offseason shoulder surgery, Brandan Wright missed the entire 2009-2010 season and thus has to finish this year before he's completed the four-year period we care about when evaluating draft picks. 

Wright was drafted by the Golden State Warriors in 2007 when they used their No. 8 overall pick on the 6'9" forward from North Carolina.

He spent the first two-and-a-half years with the team before he was traded along with Dan Gadzuric to the New Jersey Nets for Troy Murphy and a draft pick midway through the 2010-2011 season. 

He signed on with the defending champions, the Dallas Mavericks, this past offseason and looks likely to finish out the four-year period with the team. 

Wright had earned 3.8 win shares through the first three years of his career and he needed to earn 12.4 in order to avoid becoming a bust. Through the first 19 games he's played in this season, Wright has earned 1.1, putting him on pace for a 2.4-win share season. 

If the forward remains on that same pace, he'd finish the four-year period with 6.2 win shares and a Difference of -6.2, tying him with Ike Diogu as the fifth-worst pick that the Warriors have made since 1990. 

Anthony Randolph (No. 14 in 2008)

Anthony Randolph spent the first two seasons of his career with the Golden State Warriors before he was traded to the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves, in that order. 

Randolph has only started three games in the last two years and is quickly becoming even more of a bust than he was previously thought of after the Dubs spent a lottery pick on him in 2008. 

The power forward from LSU earned 3.6 win shares during his first three seasons in the league but he's on pace for only 1.3 more during his fourth and final season that matters here. 

That potential of 4.9 would fall well short of the 9.1 win shares necessary to validate his status as a former No. 14 pick. In fact, a Difference of -4.2 would push him into the 10th spot on the worst picks list. 

Richard Hendrix (No. 49 in 2008)

After he was drafted out of Alabama in the second round of the 2008 NBA draft, Richard Hendrix spent a good bit of time on the inactive roster for the Golden State Warriors before he played in the D-League and was subsequently released from the team. 

Hendrix bounced around D-League rosters and played quite well at that level, but now he's balling in Europe. It seems unlikely that the former member of the Crimson Tide is going to ever make a name for himself in the NBA. 

I'm going to assume that Hendrix finishes with 0.0 win shares, giving him a Difference of -1.8. That's obviously not a good thing, but it's not a bad enough result to make it onto the worst picks lineup. 

Stephen Curry (No. 7 in 2009)

After his sensational collegiate career with the Davidson Wildcats, no one knew exactly what to expect from Stephen Curry in the NBA. Despite the fact that he was a truly incredible shooter, there were some suspicions that his lack of size would lead him into the realm of busts. 

But Curry got off to a tremendous start in The Association, averaging 17.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game and earning 4.6 win shares as a rookie.

The sharp-shooting point guard got even better in his second season, averaging 18.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists per contest while accumulating 6.6 more win shares. 

If Curry can stay healthy despite his glassy ankles, he's on pace for 4.6 more win shares in his third season. An All-Star caliber, it wouldn't be at all unlikely for Curry to continue improving and earn, let's say five win shares this year. 

That would give him a three-year total of 16 win shares. A conservative estimate in Curry's fourth season would give him another five win shares and a four-year total of 21. 

Seventh picks are expected to earn 13.2 win shares in the first four years of their careers, so this rather conservative estimate has Curry exceeding expectations by 7.8. That Difference would make him the fifth-best pick for the Golden State Warriors since 1990. 

Although if Curry continues to improve and earns around nine win shares in his fourth season, he'd have a Difference of 11.8 and could very well top backcourt mate Monta Ellis and become the third-best pick since 1990.  

Ekpe Udoh (No. 6 in 2010)

Ekpe Udoh has not lived up to expectations, and it may be too late for him to ever live up to them in his first four years. 

The power forward was drafted out of Baylor with the sixth overall pick of the 2010 NBA draft and played 58 games, starting 18 of them, during his rookie season. This season though, Udoh has completely lost his starting job, playing in all 26 games so far without starting a single one. 

Udoh's per-36 numbers are not very impressive and I haven't seen very many indications of an upcoming breakout for the big forward. 

If Udoh maintains his current pace throughout the rest of the season, he'll finish the first two years of his career with a total of 1.2 win shares. 

A sixth-overall pick has to earn 14.1 win shares in the first four years of his career just to break even. If you think that Udoh is going to earn 12.9 more win shares in the next two seasons, you're crazy. 

An optimistic estimate would give Udoh a four-year total of 5.2 win shares and a Difference of -7.7. That would still make him the fourth-worst pick since 1990. And remember, this is the optimistic estimate. 

Klay Thompson (No. 11 in 2011)

Klay Thompson has been good but not great as a rookie thus far. His PER of 13.6 is by no means impressive for an NBA veteran, but it's perfectly adequate for a rookie. 

Thompson has not been much of a factor on the defensive end of the ball, but he's living up to his reputation as a great shooter and he's one of the NBA's best in catch-and-shoot situations. 

So far, Thompson has played in 26 games with just one start. He's averaging 7.6 points, 1.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game and has earned 0.6 win shares so far. That puts the rookie from Washington State on pace for 1.5 win shares as a rookie. 

Thompson should continue to improve, but he's unlikely to get much playing time in the near future with Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry firmly entrenched as starters in the backcourt of the Golden State Warriors. 

An estimate of two win shares per season for the next three years would give Thompson a four-year total of 7.5 and a Difference of -3.0. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Thompson exceeded these very conservative projections, but even with these low expectations, the rookie shooting guard wouldn't end up on the busts list for the Dubs. 

Charles Jenkins (No. 44 in 2011)

Charles Jenkins has appeared in 16 games so far but is averaging just 9.3 minutes, 2.4 points, 0.6 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game thus far during his rookie season with the Golden State Warriors. 

As a rookie, Jenkins has already earned 0.2 win shares and is on pace for 0.5 as a rookie. If we assume this pace is accurate and Jenkins will have a fairly natural career trajectory for a No. 44 pick, he will likely finish right around the expected 2.5 four-year win shares.

It's impossible to predict Jenkins' future playing time, but he seems to be on path to be a career backup who hangs around in the league for a while. 

Jenkins won't be a steal, but he won't really be a bust, either.