Philadelphia Phillies 2012: Can This Roster Contend for a World Series?

Boy have the expectations changed around here.

Who would have thought 10 years ago that a season where the Phillies won a franchise-record 102 games could leave fans with a bittersweet taste in their mouths?

The reality is that ever since the Phils reached "team to beat" status in 2007, expectations have been steadily climbing. That's not to say the Phillies haven't been meeting them, though. After being World Champions in 2008, we could deal with a loss in the 2009 World Series.

The 2010 NLCS loss hurt a bit more, but it was understandable.

Last year, though, was not OK. Losing in the first round of the playoffs after having the best regular-season record? Cliff Lee blowing a four-run lead and the offense wasting Doc Halladay's gem were incredibly agonizing to watch.

No amount of Philly Phanatic belly-shaking could cheer me up after those performances.

Needless to say, anything less than a title this year will fail to fully satisfy many of us. So, is this roster good enough for the Phillies to get back to the top? 

Before making my verdict, let's take a quick glance at each facet of the 2012 Phillies. We'll discuss the Phils' projected lineup, bench, rotation and bullpen.

The Lineup

Everyone should be pretty familiar with the Phillies lineup at this point.

Raul Ibanez and his massive tobacco cheek will no longer be patrolling left field, and Ryan Howard may miss some time in the beginning of the season while he works his way back from the Achilles injury that ended his year and the Phillies season.

Other than that, Jimmy Rollins is back for another few seasons and we get a full year of Hunter Pence.

An important issue with this older lineup is how many games they can actually get on the field.

Chase Utley—who I'm still convinced is one of the top two second basemen in the game when healthy—needs to play more than the 103 games he did last year. How the Wigginton/Thome/Mayberry combo holds down first base while Ryan Howard is out will certainly play a role in the start that this team gets.

Placido Polanco, in my opinion, will be worth very little from an offensive standpoint in 2012. He has virtually zero power and average speed, so he's a .280ish singles hitter. Not what this offense needs.

I fully expect the Phillies defense to be very solid once again, even if the infielders' range is slowly declining as they age. Brown/Mayberry filling the Ibanez black hole in left will certainly help, too.

Overall, I think the offense is actually in for a pretty good year. They won't be the dynamic, homer-happy group we've seen in the past, but don't expect them to be the group that struggled to even get on base against Chris Carpenter either.

With Shane Victorino looking to prove himself worthy of a big contract, a healthy Chase Utley, a full year of Hunter Pence and no more Raul Ibanez, I think they will be able to produce.

The Bench

Ruben Amaro, with some minor tweaks, has set up the bench pretty nicely for 2012.

Jim Thome provides an actual power threat off of the bench (Ross Gload had exactly zero home runs last season) and Laynce Nix is a more-than-capable fourth outfielder and pinch-hitting option.

Brian Schneider isn't the type of player that you get excited about, but he's a veteran presence. You could do worse at backup catcher.

Ty Wigginton is a pickup I'm very happy with. He was an All-Star recently (2010) and provides good pop at a couple of different infield positions. His acquisition will definitely help the Phils weather the storm for however long Ryan Howard is out.

There are still some things to be sorted out here, though. What exactly is Domonic Brown's role on this team? Do the Phillies break camp with Juan Pierre?

And who is going to fill the utility infield role now that Wilson Valdez is gone? I pray that it's not Michael Martinez.

When everything shakes out, the Phillies bench this year should be a huge improvement over 2011. There are guys that should be able to fill in for some short-term injuries, and guys who give Charlie Manuel legitimate pinch-hitting options.

P.S. I really, really, really hope that Domonic Brown finds a place with this team and breaks out in 2012. The Phillies need to get younger, and fast.

The Rotation

There really isn't much to say here.

The Phillies rotation should, once again, be historically good. Halladay, Lee and Hamels (who could be even more motivated in a contract year) should pitch brilliantly, assuming Charlie Manuel doesn't leave them out there until their arms explode.

The back of the rotation could provide a little turbulence. Vance Worley will look to prove his rookie season was legit, but don't be surprised if he runs into some sophomore struggles.  

Also, Joe Blanton, Kyle Kendrick, Joel Pineiro and others will be fighting to be the Phils' No. 5 starter. Blanton and his big contract will be given every shot to win the job, but Kyle Kendrick is very able and could have more starts than Heavy B by the end of the season.

Pineiro—who's had a couple of 15 win seasons in the past— was picked up as another option this offseason, and could possibly work his way into the rotation with a strong spring or some injuries.

We're in for another year of great pitching, as this staff certainly has the ability to pitch these Phillies to a title.

The Bullpen

The 2012 bullpen has a lot of new pieces.

Amaro made headlines early on in the offseason by signing closer Jonathan Papelbon to a humongous contract. While I don't like the contract at all (see my article from last week), Papelbon is one of the elite closers in the majors and should be rock solid this season.  

Dontrelle Willis was brought in to be a lefty option and occasional clean-up hitter with his .244 career average and nine homers. After reading those numbers, I really can't believe Michael Martinez might make this team again.

Please, Ruben, sign a utility infielder that weighs more than 145 pounds and/or can hit a ball off a tee.

The recently-signed Chad Qualls is a great pickup and has been solid throughout his career. Jose Contreras might be 63 years old, but he should do a decent job again this year. Michael Stutes will look to improve on a promising rookie season and Antonio Bastardo will be out to prove that last year was no fluke.

The Phillies also have a stable of young guys (Joe Savery, Justin De Fratus, Phillippe Aumont) who could break in to the bullpen at some point.

This bullpen looks promising on paper, and it's going to be really interesting to see how it comes together over the course of the season.

Verdict

All facets of the team considered, yes, the 2012 Phillies should definitely contend for a World Series title.

It's becoming painfully obvious that the window is closing for the aging Phillies, but there is no reason to expect anything less than a championship this season.

They enter 2012 with a familiar lineup, a much-improved bench, a strong rotation and a bullpen with promise. Those are the ingredients for a team that should be favored to win the National League this year.

Of course, this is all speculative. As we've seen in the playoffs the past couple seasons, on any given night the bats could go cold, the pitchers could miss their spots and the season could end early.  

I prefer to hope for the best.