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While the Patriots are a scoring machine, the Ravens have beaten every good team they've played. Their only losses this season have come against the Seahawks, the Jaguars, the Chargers and the Titans. Of those teams, the closest to being good is the Titans, and they're really just mediocre. I'm in the minority here, but I'm picking the Ravens to win.
The Patriots dropped 45 points on a very good Denver defense and so they'll have no trouble scoring points on the Ravens, but you also have to consider that the Ravens have been potent offensively on occasion. They put up 35 points on the Steelers, 34 on the Jets and 31 on the Bengals.
The long and short of it is that the Ravens have been inconsistent offensively all season. If they're on, they'll have no trouble keeping up with Brady, if they're off, then they won't score enough.
I expect that they'll be on, and with the Patriots terrible defense, all the Ravens will have to do is get enough pressure on Brady to slow him down and they ought to be fine. Between Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs, they ought to have an answer for Gronkowski in coverage too.
Predicted score: Ravens 37, Patriots 35
If Ed Reed is out: Patriots 38, Ravens 28