Philadelphia Phillies: Stat Predictions for Each Player on the 25-Man Roster

On paper, the Philadelphia Phillies are the best team in the National League, and you can make a strong case for the argument that they are the best team in all of baseball.

However, I'll use the same caveat that shortstop Jimmy Rollins made way back in the spring of 2007, when he made his famous, "We're the team to beat," prediction: That's just on paper.

The Phillies have been the best team on paper for the last couple of seasons, but have yet to cash that paper in for a World Series trophy. Injuries, inconsistency, and a lack of timely hitting have plagued the Phillies when it matters most, and now, as the core of a talented roster ages, whether or not the Phillies can capture their third World Series title in franchise history is shrouded in doubt.

There should be little doubt that the Phillies have the talent to not only win the World Series in the near future, but fulfill those lofty expectations of being the best team in the game. If the Phillies are healthy, they have the offense to back their elite pitching, and that could mean trouble for the rest of the National League.

So before I dust off my crystal ball and predict each player's slash line, I'd like to make a note. While I will consider the health of a player moving forward, I will not be predicting that they are injured at any point during the season, and their statistical totals will represent that. This means that the statistics of some players will have to be adjusted.

Jimmy Rollins

The Predicted Line: .275 / .335 / .410, 15 HR, 30 2B, 60 RBI, 25 SB

It's easy to believe that Jimmy Rollins has been on a consistent decline over the last three seasons or so, but the Phillies' shortstop has also battled health issues and frankly, has been a bit unlucky. Over each of the last three years, the highest BABIP Rollins posted was .275, in 2011.

It would be impossible to predict luck, but if luck is on his side in 2012, it wouldn't be strange to see Rollins post a solid line while playing above average defense, which is exactly what the Phillies are hoping for after signing him to a three-year deal.

Shane Victorino

The Predicted Line: .280 / .350 / .440, 16 HR, 25 2B, 65 RBI, 25 SB

It certainly isn't unreasonable to believe that Shane Victorino is heading for a big year in 2012. After all, following the season, the "Flyin' Hawaiian" will be one of the premier outfielders in a relatively thin free agent class at the upper level. There is money to be made for Victorino with another great year, and there is little reason to believe he can't do it.

With arbitration cases and possible contract extensions for Cole Hamels and Hunter Pence looming, Victorino may be playing his last season in red pinstripes. He'll cost a pretty penny on the free agent market.

Chase Utley

The Predicted Line: .285 / .375 / .490, 22 HR, 25 2B, 90 RBI, 10 SB

There are some people who believe that Chase Utley's best days are behind him. I am not one of them. Impacted by a number of health related issues over the last couple of seasons, for the first time in a few years, it looks as though Utley is ready to arrive at Spring Training healthy and raring to go.

I know, we said that last season as well.

That's the obvious caveat for Utley: He has to be healthy. If he is, and personally, I believe that he really is healthy this time around, there is no reason to believe that he can't still be one of the game's elite second baseman.

For the first time since, maybe, his rookie season, Utley has something to prove. That's a lot of drive for a man with his competitive edge.

Ryan Howard

The Predicted Line: .255 / .350 / .495, 38 HR, 30 2B, 130 RBI, 0 SB

As I mentioned on the opening slide, any statistical projections here are based over the course of a full season. I'm well aware of the fact that it is very likely that Ryan Howard's season will not begin until May, but that is just an estimation. It could be sooner than that, it could be later. For the sake of consistency, we'll use the guideline of a full season's worth of at-bats.

With that having been said, what can we expect out of Ryan Howard in 2012? There is a contingent of people who believe that Howard's recovery from a ruptured Achilles tendon will have allowed for his oft-injured ankle to make a full recovery.

While I'm not certain how well his Achilles tendon will have healed, I do believe that it will be healthier this time around than it has in recent years. That should bring some of his power back to life. 50 home runs may not be in the cards any longer, but over the course of a full season, is there reason to believe Howard can't reach the 40 home run plateau?

Hunter Pence

The Predicted Line: .285 / .360 / .530, 30 HR, 35 2B, 115 RBI, 10 SB

Characterizing his 2012 season as a "breakout year" would be inaccurate, but I believe that Hunter Pence is about to "evolve" as a player.

In just half a season with the Phillies, Pence opened more than a few eyes. His power numbers rapidly increased after being inserted into a contending lineup, and though he has never hit more than 25 home runs in a single season, I'm predicting a 30 home run year for Pence in his first full season as a member of the Phillies.

With Ryan Howard expected to open the season on the disabled list, it will be Pence tasked with picking up some of the slack in the middle of the order, and I believe that he'll be up to the job.

John Mayberry Jr.

The Predicted Line: .265 / .340 / .470, 18 HR, 25 2B, 65 RBI, 10 SB

John Mayberry Jr. is a difficult player to make a prediction for because I'm unsure of just how much playing time he'll receive in 2012. More likely than not, the majority of his at-bats will come against left handed pitchers, but Charlie Manuel was not shy about using him in certain situations against right handed pitching in 2011.

So with that being said, I'll sum up my prediction for Mayberry by saying this: I believe that he is on the verge of becoming an everyday player. That means that he'll have to have an impressive season in 2012, and in that case, the Phillies may be more willing to let Shane Victorino walk in free agency, with Domonic Brown waiting in the wings.

Placido Polanco

The Predicted Line: .285 / .330 / .370, 5 HR, 20 2B, 50 RBI, 5 SB

There isn't much doubt in regards to the belief that Placido Polanco's best days are in the past, but whether or not he can still contribute is an entirely different conversation. That conversation is more like a game of "what ifs," the first of which is whether or not he can stay healthy.

Despite having surgery to repair a double sports hernia over the off-season, Polanco recently told Todd Zolecki of MLB.com that he would be ready to go by Spring Training.

Being ready to go by Spring Training is one thing, but will he be able to last for an entire season? There is reason to believe that he can. The Phillies are employing a drastically deeper bench in 2012 and should be able to keep Polanco rested.

If he can stay on the field and play the same type of elite defense he did in 2011, the Phillies can live with Polanco's offense, even if he is more of a bottom-of-the-order type hitter nowadays.

Carlos Ruiz

The Predicted Line: .275 / .370 / .420, 8 HR, 27 2B, 55 RBI, 0 SB

Over each of the last couple of seasons, Carlos Ruiz has developed into a very solid offensive player. He isn't going to hit above .300 or hit mammoth home runs, but has really made a name for himself lately by becoming somewhat of an on-base machine in the lower half of the order.

Though it has been said a hundred times, it is worth saying again: With Ruiz's defensive value, any offensive production is icing on the cake. The Phillies would be very happy with Ruiz if he continued to work the count well, draw walks, and find ways to get on base in front of the pitcher.

Jim Thome

The Predicted Line: .250 / .360 / .470, 15 HR, 15 2B, 40 RBI, 0 SB

Jim Thome may not be an everyday first baseman (or designate hitter, for that matter) at this point in his career, but Charlie Manuel is going to find him plenty of at-bats, and there is no reason to believe that Thome can't still be a very productive hitter. 

The slugger's primary role will be the Phillies' top pinch hitter. Because he has fared well against both left handed and right handed pitching, I seriously doubt that Manuel will shy away from using Thome against certain lefties. He'll also work him into a couple of starts at first base as Ryan Howard recovers from injury.

The real question here is whether or not Thome, who is used to logging 400 at-bats a season, can stay sharp in a limited role. The answer is simple: We'll have to wait and see.

Laynce Nix

The Predicted Line: .260 / .310 / .450, 15 HR, 15 2B, 50 RBI, 0 SB

That's not a pretty slash line for Laynce Nix, but it is also a bit misleading. It's not secret that he simply can't hit left handed pitching, and Charlie Manuel and the Phillies would be foolish to believe that a career-long trend is going to change in 2012, because it's not.

The Phillies brought Nix aboard for one reason: Hit right handed pitching. Lefties may have given Nix fits throughout his career to date, but it has been quite the opposite story against right handed pitching. He has the potential to surprise some people with a powerful swing and a short porch in right field.

Nix should see plenty of at-bats this season as part of a platoon with left fielder John Mayberry Jr., and on days where he will not be starting, he will probably be used as a pinch hitter versus right handed relievers.

Ty Wigginton

The Predicted Line: .250 / .315 / .420, 15 HR, 15 2B, 50 RBI, 3 SB

Ty Wigginton is another guy that the Phillies should be able to find plenty of playing time for in 2012. Though they've all but ruled out Wigginton playing in the outfield or at second base, question marks surrounding each corner infield position should open the door for Wigginton.

If Ryan Howard is to open the season on the disabled list, Wigginton is a guy that will log some innings at first base against left handed pitching. He'll also play what could be a couple of games a week at third base to give the oft-injured Placido Polanco a breather.

A powerful right handed hitter, Wigginton should also find plenty of at-bats as a pinch hitter against lefties, so finding playing time isn't really much of an issue here. It will, however, be interesting to see just how much of an effect Coors Field had on his numbers with the Colorado Rockies.

Wilson Valdez

The Predicted Line: .250 / .310 / .350, 1 HR, 8 2B, 20 RBI, 3 SB

If all goes according to plan in 2012, Wilson Valdez won't see many at-bats, and that's not a bad thing for the Phillies. After adding three bench pieces this winter, all of whom are better offensive options than Valdez, the utility man has a much more defined role heading into the new year: Defense.

With Michael Martinez likely to begin the year in AAA, Valdez is the only legitimate option to play the middle infield positions. When they're completely healthy, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley don't take many days off (though, there is reason to believe that will be changing in 2012), so Valdez's at-bats will be limited.

With that being said, he is the best defender the bench has to offer, and will be first on the depth chart in that regard.

Brian Schneider

The Projected Line: .240 / .310 / .330, 2 HR, 6 2B, 15 RBI, 0 SB

Believe it or not, Brian Schneider is a relatively difficult player to project heading into the 2012 season. After an atrocious 2011 season, many believe that, heading into the off-season, the back-up catcher had probably played his last game with the Phillies, but after agreeing to a new, one-year deal, that obviously wasn't the case.

So what can we expect out of Schneider in 2012? Will he be as bad at the dish as he was in 2011?

There are reasons to believe that he'll be slightly better in 2012. Though his numbers were very bad last season, Schneider also posted a BABIP of just .225, suggesting that he was extremely unlucky on balls that he put in play. However, a rising strikeout rate and declining walk rate suggest that he won't get much better at the dish.

In the end, he's in the same boat as Wilson Valdez: The USS Defense First.

Roy Halladay

The Predicted Line: 21-6, 2.40 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 235 IP, 6.25 K/BB

Recently, I wrote a slideshow making bold predictions for each Phillies' player in 2012, and in that slideshow I predicted that Roy Halladay would win the National League Cy Young Award next season. I'm sticking to my guns by predicting a very strong 2012 campaign from the 2010 recipient of the award.

While most starting pitchers his age are heading into the back end of their careers, Halladay has gotten continually better over each of the last few seasons, changing his pitch selection, posting higher strikeout numbers, and dominating the National League.

Simply put, there is no reason to project him to pitch any worse in 2011. The man is the best pitcher in baseball, on a mission to win the World Series.

Cliff Lee

The Predicted Line: 20-8, 2.60 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 230 IP, 5.75 K/BB

If there was any doubt about it prior to his 2011 campaign, Cliff Lee firmly cemented himself among the league's elite pitchers last season, and had the Phillies given him a bit more run support in certain starts, would have been a 20-game winner.

Much like his teammate Roy Halladay, Lee is the type of pitcher who is seemingly getting better with age. For a little insight on what I mean there, I suggest reading this piece written by David Hale of The News Journal, in which he explains how Lee, buy utilizing a number of tactics also used by Halladay, has been able to redefine himself as a pitcher, despite heading into his mid 30s.

What does that mean heading into the 2012 season? Well, the answer is simple: There is no reason to believe that Lee shouldn't be equally as dominant as he was in 2011, and with a healthy offense behind him, pick up 20 wins in the process.

Cole Hamels

The Predicted Line: 20-8, 3.15 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 220 IP, 4.20 K/BB

After learning how to fully utilize his cutter after the All-Star break in 2010, Cole Hamels has gotten better with each and every pitch he has thrown. Simply put, if I am predicting that the Phillies' offense is set to rebound in a big way in 2012, there is no reason not to predict that Hamels, often the victim of low run support, finally gets the support he needs to win 20 games.

After all, no pitcher on the Phillies' roster can put himself in a better position for his future than Hamels, who is set to become a free agent following the season should he and the Phillies be unable to work out a contract extension.

The strength of the Phillies is pitching. That's not a secret. After watching Hamels, Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee in 2011, there are few reasons to believe that all three are not capable of winning 20 games in 2012.

Vance Worley

The Predicted Line: 14-9, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 200 IP, 3.50 K/BB

Vance Worley is one of the most difficult players to make a projection for on the Phillies' roster. There are two schools of thought as to what his next season will look like. The first is the reliever turned starting pitcher that is primed for regression, and the second is the blossoming starting pitcher ready to build on his success from 2011.

I belong to that second school of thought.

Although there are plenty of reasons to suggest that Worley will regress to the mean in 2012, what that "mean" truly is has yet to be established. After all, he has a lot of things working for him. The first is the simple fact that he's working behind three All-Star pitchers, all of whom can contend for the Cy Young, in the rotation.

The second, and most important, is the fact that Worley had one of the league's best fastballs (as far as value is concerned) in 2011: A two-seam fastball that, when used correctly, is flat out baffling to hitters.

Add to that fastball the fact that Worley is heading into camp as a stronger starting pitcher in 2011 with a year of experience under his belt, and I can't help but to expect big things out of Worley in 2012.

Joe Blanton

The Predicted Line: 14-8, 3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 175 IP, 3.90 K/BB

This slideshow isn't about bold predictions, but Joe Blanton has the potential to be the most pleasant surprise of the 2012 season for the Phillies for a number of reasons.

The first is the simple fact that he is healthy. After spending most of the 2011 season on the disabled list with arm troubles, David Hale of The News Journal recently caught up with Blanton, who reported no issues with his health heading into his winter regiment. With Spring Training just around the corner, that is an excellent sign.

That article is the perfect example of why it is easy to be optimistic about Blanton in 2012. Though he missed most of last season, when Blanton returned in the month of September, he was in noticeably better shape, and when he was on the mound, he was noticeably more effective.

One of the biggest reasons for that new-look Blanton was a much different repertoire than in years past. 2011 saw Blanton become a sinker-ball pitcher, moving away from the straight fastball and watching his ground ball rate soar. He moved away from the curveball and used more sliders, while working a cutter into his repertoire.

Will that be enough for Blanton to reclaim some of his value heading into free agency? Who knows. But there is certainly hope.

Mike Schwimer

The Predicted Line: 50 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.50 K/BB

Because the Phillies haven't necessarily finished building their roster for the 2012 season, this slide is basically for the 25th man on the roster, and truth be told, the player that fills this spot may not be determined until the end of Spring Training (of course, Ryan Howard opening the season on the disabled list would make the decision a bit easier.)

Normally, I would include Domonic Brown on this type of slideshow, but the Phillies have been rather emphatic about letting him play in AAA. Instead, they would like to carry a fifth outfielder, but haven't been shy about their willingness to carry an extra pitcher either.

So with that being said, I'm including Mike Schwimer for no reason other than the simple fact that the Phillies gave him a shot at the show last season. This spot could easily be filled by guys like Justin De Fratus, Brian Sanches, Joe Savery, etc.

Kyle Kendrick

The Predicted Line: 110 IP, 4.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 1.90 BB/9

Even with the (likely) departure of Roy Oswalt, Kyle Kendrick will find himself without a spot in the starting rotation heading into the 2012 season, filling the role of the bullpen's long reliever. In a nutshell, that means that we can expect a similar season in 2012 to Kendrick's 2011 season, but with room for regression. 

After posting a career-low BABIP of .261 in 2011, an ERA of 3.22 won't be in the cards for the 2012 season. The first option in the event of an injury, there should be little doubt that Kendrick logs the most innings out of the bullpen in 2012, and I'm sure the Phillies would be happy if Kendrick posted that line above. All in all, that's a solid season for a long reliever.

Dontrelle Willis

The Predicted Line: 40 IP, 2.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 3.50 K/BB

Dontrelle Willis has the potential to be one of baseball's best left handed specialists in 2012. Of course, a lot of that potential falls in the hands of Phillies' manager Charlie Manuel, who hasn't exactly made the best decisions with his bullpen in recent seasons.

With that being said, however, I am making my prediction based on the notion that Willis will be used solely against left handed hitters, and over the course of his career, it is clear that the lefty has been much more comfortable working against them.

With a deceptive delivery and a very good slider, that shouldn't be much of a surprise. Though 2012 will be his first season as a reliever, Willis has excellent career numbers versus left handed hitters, including 263 strikeouts to 73 walks, a .196 batting average against, and a 2.50 FIP.

Mike Stutes

The Predicted Line: 60 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB

Mike Stutes is a guy that, in 2011, showed reason to believe that he could either vastly improve or vastly decline in 2012.

The Phillies gave him the call after watching the relievers of their Opening Day bullpen start to drop like flies to the injury bug. In his first few appearances, Stutes was quite impressive, showing some potential as a possible option for the later innings.

However, as he became exposed to the opposition, he began to fall into some bad habits. Stutes watched his walk rate climb and struggled with the long ball.

At the end of the day, it has been suggested that Stutes could fill the role that Chad Durbin abandoned a few seasons ago. That means he'll be the guy to log innings in the middle innings, making a few appearances later in the game against tough right handed hitters.

However, unless he shows some command in Spring Training, I'm not even sure there is a guarantee that he breaks camp with the MLB club.

Jose Contreras

The Predicted Line: 45 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.50 K/BB

After missing nearly the entire 2011 season and knowing that he's not getting any younger, the Phillies will probably use Jose Contreras with some caution in 2012. Just how much caution is used with the big Cuban reliever, well, that is yet to be determined.

Regardless of just how much he is able to pitch in 2012, Contreras has been nothing but impressive after making the transition to full-time reliever. The Phillies trusted him with the ninth inning over Ryan Madson last season before he hit the disabled list, and at the end of the day, a healthy Contreras is a huge piece to the Phillies' bullpen picture.

Needless to say, however, the Phillies aren't entirely convinced that he's 100% healthy. As they continue to explore the free agent market for set-up type relievers, one has to wonder just how much time Contreras has left in this game.

Antonio Bastardo

The Predicted Line: 60 IP, 2.75 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.60 K/BB

When the 2011 season began, Antonio Bastardo was nothing more than the bullpen's second lefty behind incumbent left handed specialist JC Romero. When the season ended, Bastardo was one of the year's most pleasant surprises, as he had become a legitimate late innings reliever and one of the best left handed relievers in all of baseball.

With an explosive fastball and a vastly improved slider, lefties found Bastardo nearly un-hittable, and right handed batters had their share of struggles as well. Even with his September struggles on the books,  Bastardo posted a WHIP of just 0.98 and his opponents posted a batting average of just .141.

The Phillies have high hopes for Bastardo moving forward, and there is little reason to believe that he cannot continue to develop into the set-up man the Phillies envision him being in 2012.

Jonathan Papelbon

The Predicted Line: 65 IP, 2.20 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 7.00 K/BB, 40 SV

After excelling as the closer of the Boston Red Sox for six seasons in the toughest division in all of baseball, there are few people who believe that Jonathan Papelbon isn't in for an outstanding season moving into the National League, and I'm not one of them.

The reasons to be optimistic are numerous. First and foremost, Papelbon is moving into a league that has seen very little of him. He'll be working with what was widely considered the best pitching staff in all of baseball in 2011, and one of the game's best defensive catchers in Carlos Ruiz.

Yes, the Phillies may have overpaid to bring Papelbon to Philadelphia, but at the end of the day, the Phillies got the man they wanted, and it isn't hard to see why.