Report: Cubs, Tigers Working on Trade for Matt Garza

According to CSN Chicago's David Kaplan on Twitter and his blog, the Cubs and Tigers are "down the road" in discussions of a trade that would send Matt Garza to the Tigers for a package of top prospects.

Presumably, the gem of the offer would be Tigers top prospect Jacob Turner, who would easily become the Cubs' top starting prospect. Turner, who made his MLB debut with the Tigers this season, is considered to have ace potential, something the Cubs desperately lack. Maybe youngster Dillon Maples has it in him, but he's still a few years away, and high school arms are always a wild card.

The 20-year-old Turner made his MLB debut this season, making three starts: July 30th against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, September 1st against the Kansas City Royals and September 22nd against the Baltimore Orioles. The call-ups came quickly for Turner, who was the ninth overall pick of the 2009 draft.

Between AA and AAA in 2011, Turner went a combined 4-5 with a 3.44 ERA in 131 innings and logged in 20 starts (17 at AA, three at AAA). His success in the minors (he also pitched well at two levels in 2010, splitting time between A and High-A ball) warranted his call-up.

Turner's first career MLB start was admittedly solid. Matching up against the Angels' Dan Haren, Turner pitched well, but took the loss. Just two months after his 20th birthday, Turner went 5 1/3 innings against the Angels, giving up three hits, two runs (both earned) three walks and struck out six. He threw 57 of his 96 pitches for strikes. The Tigers would lose that game, 5-1. While solid, Turner's services were no longer needed by the Tigers at the MLB level, and he was returned to the minor leagues.

In September, Turner made two more starts, but with far less success than his debut. On September 1st, Turner took the ball against the Royals. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up seven hits and six runs (all earned) while walking none  and striking out two. Turner threw 52 of his 81 pitches for strikes.While getting a no decision, the Tigers lost 11-8.

September 22nd treated Turner no better as he lasted only three innings against the Orioles, giving up seven hits and five runs (four earned), without registering a walk or a strikeout. Turner threw 36 of his 64 pitches for strikes.

It's easy to speculate that Turner's September struggles were the simple result of fatigue on the youngster. Only a second-year pro, Turner saw his innings jump from 115 1/3 in 2010 to a total of 143 2/3 innings in 2011. Not much should be made of his September scuffling, as he's still only 20 and a top prospect rising up the charts.

As far as I can tell, Turner simply has to be included in any deal for the Cubs to send Garza to Detroit. The term "overwhelmed" was first reported by CBS Sports's Jon Heyman on Twitter, and has since become the accepting and prevailing logic in regards to Garza's availability.

Garza posted career lows in ERA (3.32) and HR/9 (0.6), complementing his other stats, all of which were solid. The only numbers that weren't great for Garza in 2011 was his win-loss record, though the bullpen's struggles when Garza was in line for a win and the Cubs' inability to hit behind him was well documented in 2011. A 10-10 record is not bad on a team that finished 20 games below .500.

While Turner is definitely a top prospect, he still wouldn't be all the Cubs would need to move Garza. The Tigers seem unwilling to move fellow top prospect third baseman Nick Castellanos, though this shouldn't be a roadblock to the deal. The Cubs have Ian Stewart in place to start at third for the next couple of years. Josh Vitters' stock may have taken a tumble the last couple of seasons, but he's still seen as a solid prospect even though he's taking longer than had been hoped to develop (a risk that comes with all high school draftees). Factor in Junior Lake's projected move to third, and the Cubs should be alright at the hot corner.

The Cubs could, however, realistically ask for one of Detroit's intriguing left-handed starters, as Andy Oliver, Casey Crosby and Drew Smyly all rank in the Tigers' Top 10 prospects, according to MLB.com. Oliver has seen the show, and probably wouldn't be packaged with Turner. Smyly is a softer tossing left-hander, which the Cubs already look to have two of with the recently-signed Paul Maholm, and Travis Wood, who was acquired in the trade for Sean Marshall.

This leaves Casey Crosby. Crosby, 23, has battled arm injuries in the past, missing out on the 2008 season due to to Tommy John surgery, and had all but three appearances in 2010 because of an elbow injury. However, the 2007 fifth rounder is still considered to have front-of-the-rotation stuff, simply needing the time to refine his craft. Already having lost two seasons to arm injuries, Crosby seems like the perfect candidate for a change of scenery. He was simply okay in AA Erie in 2011, going 9-7 with a 4.10 ERA over 25 starts, logging 131 2/3 innings.

Crosby is also a Chicagoland native, hailing from Elburn, IL and pitched for Kaneland High School, where he won the Illinois Gatorade Player Of The Year in 2007. While it's hard to judge whether he'd be a Cubs or White Sox fan having pitched so far from the city limits of Chicago, it's not hard to say that the potential to play as close to home as he could get would be an added motivator for the young lefty. With a mid-90's fastball, a nasty curve and a developing changeup, Crosby could find himself in the Cubs' rotation by 2014.

Even if the Tigers were to offer Turner with Crosby, it still likely wouldn't be quite enough to sway Hoyer and Epstein to move Garza. However, the Tigers could offer a couple of farther-off prospects, preferably an outfielder or two with potential not unlike Ronald Torreyes, the wild card of the Marshall trade.

While it may seem like the Tigers are giving up far too much for Garza, his value to them would be sky-high. I'm sure Jim Leyland and Dave Dombrowski would love to see Doug Fister continue to post his miraculous numbers ever since the Tigers acquired him from Seattle (8-1, 1.79 ERA). However, the reality is that he probably won't.

The Tigers are looking at the real possibility of A.L. MVP and Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander having the only ERA under 4.00 on their team. Garza would easily slot into their No. 2 rotation spot, and offer a more solid rotation bridge between Verlander and the likes of Fister, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer.

If the Cubs can get great value for Garza, it'd be worth it. While Hendry gave up a lot to acquire Garza, his 2011 campaign only increased his value, and could net the Cubs a few major pieces of the team that eventually lets all us Cub fans die happy.