Arsenal and the Top 4 Contenders: Measuring Their Progress Since November

At a time when folks take a little detour from the busy thoroughfare of life, football is still at the forefront of our thoughts.

And for those who call themselves Gooners, there's only one team to measure, Arsenal.

We would like to know where our team stands comparable to our rivals in the race for the top prize in English football.

After enduring a mixed start to the season, one in which we received a severe humbling at the hands of our arch-rivals and some poor performances at home against subpar competition, where do we stand now?

The ship has steadied.

It did a while ago, after a series of performances by the team that did just enough to silence the meta-narrative of the press, a narrative that included recurring vocabularies such as "back four,"  "trophy-less," "stubborn Frenchman," "relegation," "the weakest of the London club" and so on.

At the tail end of November, I had taken a survey of the difficult patch that lay just around the corner—the unforgiving Christmas schedule. I wanted to survey our chances for a top-four finish come May. I also wanted to see what our schedule looks like in comparison to our competitors for the top four spots.

In that survey, I assume that the two Manchester clubs will finish as the top two clubs, leaving two more spots to be fought for by Chelsea, Spurs, Newcastle, Liverpool and us.

I was convinced then that if Arsenal can weather this difficult schedule and come out with sufficient points to maintain sixth or seventh position on the table, they could be in a strong position to challenge for the last two spots left behind by the Manchester clubs.

I thought that to push thereafter from sixth or seventh position for fourth or third place, it would be essential that Arsenal win matches at home against the two Manchester clubs, Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle. In addition, they'd have to win most of their away matches and not lose more than four additional matches to the four they had already lost at the beginning of the season.

The home matches against the top teams are yet to come. Since my article, Arsenal have lost only one additional match. From my projection, an allowance still can be made for three more losses, provided that Arsenal do not draw too many.

A few commenters on that article thought I was shard too hopeful.

Of the five teams competing for the two remaining spots to be left behind by the Manchester clubs—Chelsea, Spurs, Newcastle, Liverpool, Arsenal—they thought Arsenal were the weakest. They thought Chelsea would take one of those spots and that either Liverpool, Spurs or Newcastle would take the remaining one.

After five matches since my article, Arsenal occupy two rungs better than my projection. Newcastle and Liverpool have fallen behind a team that was said to be the weakest of the three.

Of course, there's still a long way to go, three more matches to be played in my own survey. However, it's noteworthy that Arsenal, the team that everyone had practically written off at the beginning of the season, sits on a more secure spot relative to the coveted top four spots than the teams that were supposedly better and stronger.

Of the teams vying for the Champions League spots, only Chelsea and Spurs are still ahead of Arsenal, to claim one of those spots, Arsenal must dethrone one of them.

At the moment, this looks like a daunting task. Whether it can be accomplished is still to be seen. What is important is that Arsenal continue to improve and win every match possible.

I have taken a census of the matches each of the four teams has played since I wrote that article in November. It measures the form of each team since then. From this we might be able to gauge our standing and project what is likely to happen in the next month-and-a-half.

Arsenal

My projection in November was that Arsenal would take maximum points from her first three matches and that she would lose to Manchester City, after which she would play a draw at Aston Villa and take a maximum of 10 points after five matches.

Allowing for a possible poor run of form, I made another projection that had them taking only six out of the maximum 15.

As it turned out, my original projection proved accurate, even if the draw didn't happen away at Villa, but happened instead at home to Fulham. We did lose to City and this brought the points taken from the five matches to 10 like I had projected. The run of form followed this sequence: D W W L W.

Tottenham Hotspur

Based on the team's form at the time, I thought Spurs would take all 15 of the available points. My worst projection for them was a loss of six points. After the five matches, Spurs finished with only one point better than my worst projection.

In comparison to Arsenal and based on the form of the two teams at the time of my projection, Spurs have had a poorer run of form than Arsenal, even if the two teams have won, drawn and lost an equal number of games.

Each has played a top opponent within the period surveyed. Arsenal played Manchester City while Spurs played Chelsea. Arsenal lost; Spurs played a draw with Chelsea. Spurs' run of form has been thus: W W L W D.

Chelsea

At the time I did the survey and projection, Chelsea were going through a rough patch. Here's what I said about them then:

"

Despite the blip in their form in late October, Chelsea will consolidate their number three position on the table come early January. This is despite having to play two difficult opponents en route—Manchester City at home and Newcastle away.

Although I project a draw in the first case, Chelsea may just be the team that could end Manchester City’s current unbeaten run. If they do, they’ll be three points better than my best projection for them after Round 20 of the Premiership.

Chelsea, though, could lose away to Newcastle.

Nevertheless, I see them taking at least 18 points from the possible 24. My worst projection is 16 points. In early January, Chelsea should have 43 points in total—possibly 41. At this point they’ll either be third or fourth on the premiership table.

The particular position will depend on how Tottenham Hotspur finishes at this point.

"

It turns out I wasn't far off. Chelsea are currently fourth on the table, but they could be third after the next couple of games, and had they won at Wigan (which they should have), they'd be third on the table right now. Their form has been W W W D D. 

Of the three teams, Chelsea have had a better run of form, not bad for a team that was supposedly in crisis.

Liverpool

At the time I wrote, I thought Liverpool would take eight of the available 15 points after five matches. They've actually taken eight. At the time, Liverpool were sixth on the table, Arsenal seventh. Newcastle were third, Chelsea fourth and Spurs fifth. 

Arsenal have, since then, overtaken Liverpool and are better with two points. There's still a long way to go, but even so, what Arsenal have achieved since their days of darkness at the beginning of the season must be acknowledge and applauded. Liverpool's form since my writing has been D L W W D

Newcastle United

Of Newcastle it must be said, "how the mighty have fallen." Newcastle were unbeaten at the time of my writing and sat high and pretty on the table at third.

They now sit where Arsenal sat at the time. I had thought they'd take 10 points at this juncture, just like Arsenal—and that was my conservative projection for them. Informed by their form at the time, I thought they could take 13 of the available 15 points.

In reality, they've taken just two of the 15 points after a woeful run of form that has seen them lose three of the five matches and draw two.

Table Projection at the End of the Year

Taking into account the form of the three rival teams at the time, I thought Arsenal would finish the year seventh or sixth on the table.

I thought, however, that Arsenal's chance at finishing in the top four would come later in the spring when they play the two Manchester clubs, Newcastle, Chelsea and Spurs at home. I believed, and still do, that victories in these matches will ensure a strong finish on the table.

As it is, Arsenal may finish the year with a stronger standing than I had projected. Fifth will still be the likely position. Today's matches and the weekend's will determine what happens. But based on each of the five team's schedule (see here), I see little changing in terms of standings on the table.

Will Arsenal be able to finish in the top four come May? The answer depends on how they do against the top teams.