Capital One Bowl
Georgia vs. Michigan State
New Year's Day 1PM ABC
New Year's Day 1PM ABC
Orlando, Fla.
Line: Georgia –7.5
Line: Georgia –7.5
Overview
A pair of Doak Walker finalists, Knowshon Moreno and Javon Ringer, headline this SEC vs. Big 10 clash in Orlando.
Georgia is coming off a close loss to in-state rival Georgia Tech, while Michigan State got thumped by Penn State in their final outing.
The Bulldogs and Spartans will both be aiming for 10-win seasons in a bowl the Big 10 has won the last four years.
Here are the keys to the game:
Here are the keys to the game:
1. One-Trick Pony
Michigan State’s offense has been called a one-trick pony by some, but that one trick is a pretty good one with Ringer.
Some will look at the rushing yards amassed by Georgia Tech against Georgia and assume Ringer will have a big day, but the Tech style of running is much different from the conventional style of the Spartans.
Still, tackling will be key for a banged-up Bulldog defense that failed miserably in this category their last time out.
Ringer is the key to the entire Michigan State offense. As he goes, so goes Sparty.
2. Michigan State's Pass Defense
Georgia arguably has their best trio of QB and starting WRs in their history.
Both AJ Green and Mohamed Massaquoi could go over 1,000 yards receiving in this game, and last time out, QB Matt Stafford had the best game of his career passing for 407 yards against Georgia Tech.
Michigan State ranks just 61st against the pass in a league known for running the ball. The Spartans can't play mostly nickel and leave out an extra defender against Knowshon Moreno, so expect to see a lot of man coverage from Mark Dantonio's club.
3. How Much Does Georgia Want This Game?
I am being serious here.
I look at the talent level and see a clear advantage for Georgia. The three best teams Michigan State played all year they lost to and Ohio State and Penn State were blowouts.
If Georgia shows up, to play I think a rout could be on. If they are not prepared, then Michigan State will make it close.
Motivation
I already covered this one above.
Georgia may be sulking a little after a disappointing season where they thought they would be playing for a BCS Championship.
Michigan State is ecstatic to be in this game.
I think Mark Richt remembers the last time his team was not ready to play (vs. West Virginia in the 2006 Sugar Bowl) and that is still fresh enough in his mind not to let that happen this year.
Prediction
Pretty simple in this one.
If Georgia shows up and doesn’t turn the ball over 4+ times, they win this one easily.
Georgia 34, Michigan State 14
Georgia Covers -7.5
Confidence Ranking (of 34): 34
My confidence ranking of a Georgia win.
Georgia 34, Michigan State 14
Georgia Covers -7.5
Confidence Ranking (of 34): 34
My confidence ranking of a Georgia win.
Bowls: 3-3 ATS, 3-3 SU
Season: 34-33-3 ATS, 44-26 SU
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7 comments Last one added 6 months ago — Leave a Comment
Joe G 6 months ago
Javon Ringer has not fared very well against teams with good rushing defenses, which Georgia doesn't have. He'll have a bigger day than he did against OSU, PSU or Cal.
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Lisa Horne 6 months ago
I'm on the fence with this one. Georgia is disappointed they didnt have the season they thought they would have. They may come out flat.
On the other side, the Big Ten has stunk so far in post-season play, so why not have MSU follow the trend?
I think MSU covers. Too many points, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Dawgs cover.
Let's put it this way...I wouldn't touch this bet with a ten foot pole. The lock of the year is taking Texas over Ohio State, no matter what the spread is.
Happy New Year!
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ACC SEC Blog 6 months ago
After a tense first half, Georgia came through in the 2nd half with the win and a cover of the spread. Lock is safe for 1 more year.
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Dan Sowa 6 months ago
How many confidence points would you have given this pick at half time?
Held Knowshon to 62 anyway. Without the piss-poor spot at the end of the game that should have been a first down using any objective observer's eyes, Georgia probably wouldn't have covered.
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ACC SEC Blog 6 months ago
Can't give confidence points at halftime. Only at the beginning of the game.
And Ringer had just 47 yards rushing.
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Dan Sowa 6 months ago
Right. You covered this in your article.
"Pretty simple in this one.
Javon Ringer has not fared very well against good teams ."
MSU has a one-dimensional offense. There's a reason Ringer doesn't get many yards against good defenses like Ohio State, Penn State, and Georgia. He's the only threat. Moreno doesn't have the same excuse because Matthew Stafford is throwing the ball, not Brian Hoyer. Moreno ran against MAC-level recruits from the John L. Smith era, and Ringer was running against one of the most talented defenses in the nation.
All I'm saying is that maybe Michigan State should have been given more respect than, say, Wisconsin.
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Owen Scott 6 months ago
Hey, no one is disrespecting Michigan State. They've established themselves as an up-and-coming contender in the Big 10. Before anyone disses the Big 10, they've done OK this bowl season and are the 3rd highest rated conference by RPI. The Spartans played hard and made Georgia rise to the occasion. They stopped Knowshon pretty effectively on the ground although he showed his toughness and versatility in gaining 125 all-purpose yards while making some good blocks. Ringer is an outstanding RB as is Moreno, so there's no point in making apples and oranges comparisons. Georgia has been a strange team this year, never really uncorking their A-game against a quality opponent (and Michigan State is one). When Stafford connected with Moreno for the clinching TD, it felt right and got a lot of people thinking about a 2009 edition of the Dogs with both franchise guys coming back, a year older and that much better. Who knows, maybe they both felt it, too.
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