Rooting for the favorite is one of the most idiotic betting methods one can use, that's why it's easy to spot a pushover at the bookie table.
There was a time when the No. 1 team in the NFL had a fair shot at the prize, back when the Cap was non-existent and back when 15-1 or 14-2 really meant something, not now.
Perhaps it is because the talent is diluted, which is why in a 32 team league some schedules are weaker than others and when a team goes 10-6, perhaps more than half of their wins were handicaps.
Moving on, to prove my point I'll analyze the last 10 seasons of NFL play, who was seeded where, and who won, we start with the No. 1 overall team since 1998 and how far it got:
'98- Vikings ( 15-1 ), upset in NFC Championship
'99- Jaguars ( 14-2 ), lost in AFC Championship
'00- Titans ( 13-3 ), upset in Divisional Round
'01- Rams ( 14-2 ), upset in Super Bowl
'02- Eagles ( 12-4 ), lost in NFC Championship
'03- Pats ( 14-2 ), Won Super Bowl
'04- Steelers ( 15-1 ), lost in AFC Championship
'05- Colts ( 14-2 ), upset in Divisional Round
'06- Chargers ( 14-2 ), upset in Divisional Round
'07- Pats ( 16-0 ), upset in Super Bowl
So there you go, going by last 10 seasons, the No. 1 team by rule in the NFL has a 10 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl and 30 percent chance of making the Super Bowl, the same 30 percent chance it gets upset in the Divisional Round.
So you look at that and still say 10 percent chance is pretty good in gambling odds.
Let's analyze the nine Super Bowl Champs that were not No. 1 overall in the NFL:
'98 Broncos, No. 1 seed in AFC, No. 2 overall seed
'99 Rams, No. 3 overall seed
'00 Ravens, No. 4 seed in AFC (Wildcard) due to division rules, No. 3 seed in NFL by record
'01 Patriots, No. 2 seed in AFC, No. 6 overall by record
'02 Bucs, No. 2 seed in NFC, No. 2 overall
'04 Pats, No. 2 seed in AFC, No. 2 overall
'05 Steelers, No. 6 seed in AFC (Wildcard) due to division rules, No. 8 overall
'06 Colts, No. 3 seed in AFC, No. 4 overall
'07 Giants, No. 5 seed in NFC (Wildcard) due to division rules, No. 9 overall
So, what does this all mean?
It means 30 percent of the time, the No. 2 overall seed in the NFL won.
While another 30 percent of the time it was a Wild Card, 20 percent of the time a No. 3 overall seed.
The BYE week seems to help at least the No. 2 seed in a Conference, but the last three years have seen a team that did not have a Bye Week winning it all.
Course you could make the argument it's been five Seasons since the No. 1 overall team in the NFL won the Super Bowl so it's due right? Maybe, maybe.
To put my money where my mouth is, I'm betting on three teams:
My No. 1 pick, and the team I'm putting the most cash on will be the Panthers. The NFC is the stronger division this year, there's plenty of players that remember Super Bowl XXXVIII, and they have few holes coming down the stretch.
My No. 2 pick is the Colts, the No. 5 seed in the AFC, but technically the No. 2 overall seed in the Conference by record, and 9 straight wins, that's hot.
My final pick, are the Cardinals. There are several reasons for this, amazing odds as most will have them picked pretty low if not THE lowest odds to win the Super Bowl, and the last three seasons have shown picking the longshot may do you good, I am gambling as the lowest division seed usually dies quick, the Bucs of last season or the Seahawks of 06.
However gambling is all about going for the longshot, and the Cards are as good as any, Warner hasn't been in the playoffs since 01, I'm interested to see what he can do.
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