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Carlos Condit vs. Josh Koscheck: Head-to-Toe Breakdown

Scot HurdContributor IIINovember 24, 2011

Carlos Condit vs. Josh Koscheck: Head-to-Toe Breakdown

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    Condit vs. Koscheck will be in an interesting bout.  Each fighter will test the other in weak areas of their game.  The fighter whose revisions have been the most effective is the one who will likely control the fight.

    This is a perfect warm-up fight for Carlos Condit.  He has been focusing on his wrestling for two straight camps.  If he wins, he fights GSP, who is going to beat Nick Diaz.

    It is a great fight for Koscheck as well.  Carlos is a good fighter to have in front you if you are looking to focus on your standup.

    For fans, it will be interesting to see what these modifications look like—and whose have been the most effective.

    From head to toe, here it is.

Experience

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    Some fighters who have recently experienced a big loss due to a specific weakness in their game become more fiercely motivated.  

    There is nothing like a loss to sharpen one’s focus.  A fighter still feeling the sting of a loss—particularly like the loss that Josh Koscheck endured—has the benefit of having had a serious hole in his striking brought to his notice.  

    Though Carlos Condit has experienced more fights and more victories, I think the quality of Josh’s recent fights have been higher.  While Condit may have noticed some chinks in his armor, he is riding a four-fight win streak.  His weaknesses have not cost him anything lately.

    Advantage: Koscheck

Striking

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    Both men have knockout power in their hands.  Koscheck has five (T)KOs and one submission due to strike to his credit. 

    Condit, a high-volume puncher, has 13 knockouts.  FightMetric.com gives him a three-inch reach advantage.  

    Condit has more variety to his striking.  He has finished knees and flying knees as well as punches.  Koscheck likes to rely more on the pop of his punches.

    Condit is more agile and he moves better.

    The hole in his standup is that he fights with his front hand low, in close range.  Has he changed this?  Matt Hughes knew about it and took full advantage of the jab-uppercut combination.  You can bet Condit will check to see if he has made any adjustments. 

    Advantage: Carlos Condit

Wrestling

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    Koscheck more than makes up for his disadvantage in the standup with his serious advantage in wrestling.

    Josh Koscheck is a NCAA DIV I Champion wrestler.  He wrestled 42-0 in 2001, has tremendous takedowns and trains with Cain Velazquez.  

    If outgunned in the standup, look for Koscheck to take the fight ground.  On the ground, he can negate The Natural Born Killer's advantage in mobility and mince Condit into the canvas.  He can roughhouse him to exhaustion before opening up with some ground and pound.

    Advantage: Josh Koscheck

Submissions

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    Carlos Condit possesses a wide repertoire of submissions and 13 submission victories: he submitted Brandon Melendez with a triangle choke; he submitted Brock Larson with an armbar; he submitted Tekuya Wada with a kimura; he submitted Carlo Prater with a guillotine. 

    Though I think that going to ground with Koscheck would be a mistake for Condit, should the fight wind up there he is far from weaponless.

    Advantage: Carlos Condit

Conditioning

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    Both men have seen championship rounds.  Condit went to the fourth round of the WEC; Koscheck went to the fifth in a fight with St. Pierre.

    There is little training like wrestling training and Koscheck has been at it, at the highest level, for years.  He has the kind of bone-deep fitness that comes from being an athlete for a large and continuous portion of his life.

    Kos will want to push the fight continuously.

    Condit never shows up out of shape, but look for him to try to slow the pace of the fight and stick to the outside.  

    Advantage: Josh Koscheck

And the Winner Is...

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    Josh Koscheck.  He will defend the jab and win a hard-fought decision victory by taking Condit down and defending the submission.

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