LSU vs Arkansas: Predictions Against the Spread

Johnathan CaceCorrespondent INovember 22, 2011

OXFORD, MS - NOVEMBER 19: Les Miles, head coach of the LSU Tigers, sings the LSU school song with Drew Alleman #30 and Chase Clement #88 after defeating the Ole Miss Rebels on November 19, 2011 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi. LSU beat Mississippi 52-3. (Photo by Joe Murphy/Getty Images)
Joe Murphy/Getty Images

This game may feature the highest and third highest ranked teams in the country, but according to oddsmakers, this game won’t be close. LSU is favored by 12.5 points at home and they set it so high for a good reason.

LSU has won every game but one this season by 13 or more points and nine of 11 by 26 or more points. And back in September, Arkansas traveled to Alabama and lost by 24, so it stands to reason that the Tigers, who beat the Tide, should be able to win this weekend by a similar margin.

But LSU may struggle more with the Hogs than Alabama did. First of all, this is a big rivalry game for both teams and crazy things can happen—like when Arkansas came into Baton Rouge and beat the eventual national champions in triple overtime in 2007.

Secondly, even though the Tigers have amazingly talented cornerbacks, they may struggle with the elite passing attack of Arkansas. When they played at West Virginia, they gave up a whopping 463 yards through the air alone.

That was the only team they faced that ranks in the top third nationally in passing yards per game and the only other team they played in the top half of the country was Tennessee, but Tyler Bray was injured for that game. Arkansas ranks 10th in passing yards per game and has the most explosive offense in the SEC in terms of yards and points per game.

But Arkansas also has to stop LSU’s offense and that could be a problem. The Hogs have played four games away from home this year and they lost one and gave up an average of 30 points in the other three.

The weakness for this team has been run where they rank 70th in the country and eighth in the SEC and that is the bread and butter of LSU.

Overall, this is a difficult game to predict and I have underestimated LSU all season long, but ultimately playing on the road is too much to handle for Arkansas and they lose by a similar score to when they played Alabama.

LSU should cover.