2011 College Football Week 13 Picks and Predictions: LSU over Arkansas

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2011 College Football Week 13 Picks and Predictions: LSU over Arkansas
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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

The BCS standings mimicked the weather in Ohio this past weekend. If you wanted it to change, just wait five minutes. Playing with heavy hearts, Oklahoma State got caught up in Iowa State's upset cyclone, the USC Trojans beat Oregon on the Ducks' home field and RGIII led the Baylor Bears to a shootout win over fifth-ranked Oklahoma.

When the chips fell, the SEC West held the BCS trump card. LSU remained first in the standings, Alabama slid up to two with Arkansas third. With the SEC Championship on the horizon, all three teams prepare for heavyweight bouts in Week 13 with the winner to play Georgia in Atlanta.

Game of the Week: No. 3 Arkansas at No. 1 LSU

Following their 9-6 overtime win in Tuscaloosa, Les Miles and the Tigers have played a pair of tin cans the last two weeks. LSU outscored Western Kentucky and Ole Miss by a combined score of 94-12. The Bayou Bengals' defense in second in scoring (10.0 points allowed per game), fourth against the rush (89.6 yards allowed per game), fifth against the pass (158.3 yards allowed per game) and second in total defense (247.9 yards allowed per game).

Following their Week 4 loss at Alabama, Arkansas has won seven straight. This streak includes victories over Texas A&M, Auburn and South Carolina. The Hogs' average margin of victory during this stretch is 17.3 points.

He probably won't catch Ryan Mallett's stats from a season ago, but junior quarterback Tyler Wilson has posted solid numbers through the first 11 games. He's completed 63.1 percent of his passes for over 3,200 yards with 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions. The team is 10th in the country in passing at 316.9 yards per game.

Using our college football simulation engine we "played" LSU and Arkansas 101 times and it's the Tigers winning 65.3 percent of the time by an average score of 31-25.

No. 2 Alabama at No. 24 Auburn

Alabama and Auburn scheduled two FCS foes from the Southern Conference in Week 12. Turned out Georgia Southern and Samford were interested in more than collecting a paycheck for their universities. The Eagles only trailed by 10 at the half, while the Bulldogs pulled within one of Auburn in the third quarter before the two FBS schools pulled away.

The Tide and Tigers probably exerted more energy than expected heading into this week's Iron Bowl.

Since October 1, Auburn has gone W-L-W-L-W-L-W over their last seven games. If the pattern continues, the defending BCS champs will finish the regular season 7-5.

Michael Dyer is the team's catalyst on offense and has rushed for nearly 1,200 yards (5.2 yards per carry) with 10 touchdowns on the season. However, the Tigers rank 106th in passing offense at 161.7 passing yards per game.

Trent Richardson remains the bulldozer for the Tide on offense with 1,380 yards on the ground and 20 touchdowns. The team is 16th in the country in rushing at 220.5 yards per game.

Alabama's scoring defense is still tops in the country at 8.4 points allowed per game.

We simulated the Tide and Tigers 101 times and it's Alabama winning 76.2 percent of the time by an average score of 31-18.

Note: If Arkansas wins on Friday and Alabama wins on Saturday, that would create a three-way tie that would be settled by the BCS standings.

College Football Week 13
Matchup Win% Avg Score  
Boston College Eagles 37.6 21 Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes 62.4 26  
Maryland Terrapins 45.5 23 Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack 54.5 24  
Duke Blue Devils 47.5 26 Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels 52.5 29  
Vanderbilt Commodores 54.5 27 Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons 45.5 24  
Virginia Tech Hokies 69.3 29 Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers 30.7 23  
Georgia Bulldogs 80.7 29 Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 19.3 20  
Cincinnati Bearcats 37.6 23 Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange 62.4 26  
Pittsburgh Panthers 39.6 24 Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers 60.4 28  
Louisville Cardinals 48.5 24 Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls 51.5 25  
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 56.4 21 Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies 43.6 20  
Penn State Nittany Lions 19.3 19 Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers 80.7 32  
Ohio State Buckeyes 32.2 19 Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines 67.8 26  
Iowa Hawkeyes 43.6 23 Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers 56.4 24  
Michigan State Spartans 74.3 32 Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats 25.7 23  
Illinois Fighting Illini 84.7 29 Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers 15.3 16  
Purdue Boilermakers 93.1 36 Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers 6.9 19  
Eastern Michigan Eagles 7.9 17 Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies 92.1 35  
Akron Zips 14.9 17 Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos 85.1 31  
Miami (OH) RedHawks 35.6 22 Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats 64.4 27  
Kent State Golden Flashes 48.5 20 Boxscore
@ Temple Owls 51.5 22  
Bowling Green Falcons 64.4 25 Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls 35.6 21  
Toledo Rockets 79.2 33 Boxscore
@ Ball State Cardinals 20.8 23  
Oregon State Beavers 19.8 21 Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks 80.2 34  
UCLA Bruins 22.8 27 Boxscore
@ USC Trojans 77.2 35  
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 26.7 25 Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal 73.3 34  
Colorado Buffaloes 28.7 20 Boxscore
@ Utah Utes 71.3 28  
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 30.7 22 Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats 69.3 31  
Washington State Cougars 41.6 25 Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies 58.4 27  
California Golden Bears 49.5 23 Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils 50.5 24  
Mississippi Rebels 20.8 18 Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs 79.2 27  
Arkansas Razorbacks 34.7 25 Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers 65.3 31  
Clemson Tigers 54.5 25 Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks 45.5 24  
Florida State Seminoles 63.4 24 Boxscore
@ Florida Gators 36.6 21  
Tennessee Volunteers 66.3 23 Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats 33.7 19  
Alabama Crimson Tide 76.2 31 Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers 23.8 18  
New Mexico State Aggies 21.8 21 Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 78.2 35  
San Jose State Spartans 33.7 24 Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs 66.3 29  
Tulane Green Wave 43.6 24 Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors 56.4 25  
Nevada Wolf Pack 69.3 31 Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies 30.7 25  
Iowa State Cyclones 16.8 22 Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners 83.2 35  
Texas Tech Red Raiders 35.6 30 Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears 64.4 36  
Texas Longhorns 41.6 24 Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies 58.4 28  
Missouri Tigers 93.1 35 Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks 6.9 18  
Memphis Tigers 7.9 18 Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles 92.1 38  
UTEP Miners 32.7 22 Boxscore
@ UCF Knights 67.3 28  
Rice Owls 41.1 27 Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs 58.9 30  
Houston Cougars 55.4 42 Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane 44.6 40  
East Carolina Pirates 60.4 26 Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd 39.6 23  
Wyoming Cowboys 5.9 18 Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos 94.1 44  
Air Force Falcons 73.8 28 Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams 26.2 18  
San Diego State Aztecs 89.1 32 Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels 10.9 15  
Troy Trojans 41.1 25 Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 58.9 27  
FIU Golden Panthers 53.0 23 Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 47.0 22  
UAB Blazers 84.2 32 Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls 15.8 19  
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