2008 MLB Preview: The AL Central

The great thing about sports is that no one's ever happy.

Someone is always using the wrong stats, picking on the wrong team, using the wrong reasons to pick on that team, or just angry that their team has to take a few steps backwards.

I get it. Trust me. I’m a product of the Toronto sports base.

So be that as it may, I’ve angered Yankees fans and Orioles fans with my assessments of their teams. Are they Yankees fans steamed that I put them behind the Blue Jays? How many Orioles fans are prepared to murder me right now just because I don’t believe in Jeremy Guthrie, nor even mentioned him? If you said "all of them," then go see Bob Barker for your prize.

The better question: Is it a good strategy to poke the Tiger? (You’ll understand in a bit.)

So, without further ado, we’re going to keep going in the rundown of this year’s MLB teams. Today is the AL Central. Oh, and just for kicks, it’s in reverse order because no one seems to do that on Bleacher Report (and to make sure you’re paying attention).

This should be fun.

Chicago White Sox (2007: 72-90, fourth in AL Central): The White Sox were able to bring in a lot of quality talent over the winter months. They traded for Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher, and Carlos Quentin, as well as signed Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink.

However, for a team that won a World Series in 2005, there will be a lot of questions.

First of all, how well will Nick Swisher make the transition to Chicago? The guy gives his all each play, and even was quoted as saying “I hope the walls are padded”—insert your own Ozzie Guillen joke here—following his trade from Oakland. His stats were up and down last year (homers and RBI down from the year before, OBP and batting average were up from the year before) so it’ll be interesting to see where his stats improve and fall off this season.

Still in the outfield, Carlos Quentin could be the starting left fielder—provided he stays healthy. The injury bug has followed Quentin around in his two years, keeping him off the field and from reaching his potential.

There are a lot of young outfielders vying for position on this squad, and Quentin could be relegated to the bench in their favor if he can’t stay off the injury list.

Meanwhile, over in right field, it seems that Sox fans could be delivered from the Jermaine Dye trade rumors for at least a year, as he enters into the first of a two-year extension.

In the infield, AJ Pierzynski and Toby Hall are back behind the plate with Jim Thome (DH, but I’ll let it count as the infield), Paul Konerko, and Joe Crede. Crede is an interesting situation, as he is coming off of back surgery. His role with the club could be in jeopardy depending on how slow he starts, and how hard Josh Fields pushes him.

The shortstop position has been solidified with the arrival of two-time Gold Glover Orlando Cabrer, who came for the expense of John Garland. Meanwhile, the battle for second base will be decided in spring training between Alexei Ramirez, Dany Richar, and Juan Uribe. It’s thought that Richar is in the lead, but Uribe has been known to come out of nowhere and grab himself a starting position.

Now we come to pitching. The Sox were able to solidify the back end of their bullpen by adding Dotel and Linebrink to their resident fridge of a closer, Bobby Jenks. So long as those three stay healthy, the Sox can depend on them for solid, consistent production late in games.

The question lies with the rest of their bullpen and their starters. Aside from the aforementioned big three, Ehren Wassermann (2.74) is the only other Sox reliever to have had an MLB ERA under 4.00 last season—even Dotel’s was 4.11.

The Sox starters aren't free of expectations, however as Mark Buehrle will have to win more than 10 games, Javier Vazquez will have to replicate his success last year (15-8, 3.74 ERA), Jose Contreras will have to be a lot better than last year (10-17, 5.57 ERA, and one (or both) of John Danks and Gavin Floyd will have to step up and give the Sox a great performance.

Unless their pitching is able to find that elite level and carry this team, I don’t see the White Sox going very far this year.

2008 Prediciton: 73-89, fifth in AL Central.

Kansas City Royals (2007: 69-93, fifth in AL Central): Are the Royals going to be out of the AL Central’s basement this year? If everything goes according to plan, it may just work out that way.

The Royals have their very own Ryan Braun in Alex Gordon, the third baseman who finished last season with a broken nose.

Okay, his power numbers weren’t anywhere close to Braun’s—but it’s worth noting that Gordon is coming into this season off of a fairly successful rookie season (.247 avg, 15 HR, 60 RBI) and, like Braun, could improve on those numbers with a year of service under his belt.

Side-note: The Royals have a relief pitcher named Ryan Braun. Go figure.

On the infield, Gordon joins Tony Pena Jr. and Billy Butler to form a strong young infield, as unless Ross Gload wins the starting first baseman’s job, Mark Grudzielanek could be the only starting infielder over 30 come opening day. Ryan Shealy, the former Colorado Rockie, could challenge for the first base opening with Butler and Gload but it will take an outstanding camp to prove he belongs.

With the addition of Jose Guillen, the Royals found an experienced power bat to compliment the speed of fourth outfielder Joey Gathright, and the bats of Mark Teahen and David DeJesus.

Like every other team however, it’s the pitching that will determine the Kansas City Royals fate. Joakim Soria will hopefully thrive in the closer’s role after splitting time with Octavio Dotel in ’07.

Meanwhile, Kansas City pitchers supplied the AL with the following in 2007:

-The third worst opponent’s batting average. (.277)

-The seventh best ERA. (4.48)

-Second worst strikeout totals. (993)

-The second-lowest amount of quality starts. (64)

-Eighth in walks (520)         

-10th in saves (36)

If Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Zach Greinke can give the team some quality innings, the Royals could cause some grief in the AL Central.

If not? Well, at least they're out of the basement.

2008 Prediction: 75-87, fourth in AL Central

Minnesota Twins (2007: 79-83, third in AL Central): Despite the loss of Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, the Twins can be a dangerous team this season.

After all, when five of your eight predicted fielders all had batting averages over .275 last season, that’s nothing to sneeze at.

Just for the record, here are the stats:

Catcher: Joe Mauer- .293 average

First Base: Justin Morneau- .271 average (he also hit .321 the year before, so don’t count him out)

Second Base: Brendan Harris- .286 average
*The Twins haven’t handed the job to Harris, as Nick Punto could win the job in spring training. If that happens Punto brings in last year’s .210 average—however in 2006 he did hit .290.

Shortstop: Adam Everett: .232 average

Third Base: Mike Lamb: .289 average

Right Field: Michael Cuddyer: .276 average

Centre Field: Carlos Gomez: .232 average (career .286 hitter in AAA and .281 in AA)

Left Field: Delmon Young: .288 average.

DH: Jason Kubel: .273 or Craig Monroe .218.

Harris also provides the Twins with a power bat at second, while Everett offers them a shortstop who once fielded a .990 fielding percentage (not long ago in 2006).

The biggest question for the Twins, however, is whether Francisco Liriano can come back healthy after missing all of last season. Liriano seems to be recovering on schedule, and he’ll join Boof Bonser and Scott Baker in a Twins rotation that will be under heavy scrutiny now that they can’t hide beneath the shadow of Johan.

There to help however, will be Livan Hernandez—a picture of durability. Hernandez has only only had one season with fewer than 200 innings pitched since 1998 and he brings some much-needed experience to a young Twins rotation.

Aside from experience and durability, Hernandez brings 43 career complete games and 134 career wins as well as four years of postseason pitching experience with a World Series ring and MVP award.

With the bullpen, it’s just a matter of finding out if:

-Was last year a result of Joe Nathan getting old, or just having an off year?

-Can Jesse Crain come back from injury and be effective?

-Will Pat Neshek’s 7-2 record last season as a reliever and Matt Guerrier’s steadily declining ERA (5.68, 3.39, 3.36, and 2.35 the past four seasons) prove to be the real deal or just flashes in the bullpen pan?

-Will Juan Rincon return to form?

And

-Do Kevin Mulvey or Phil Humber fit onto this Twins squad this year? This is more of a rotation question, but you have to admit, it'll be interesting to see what role these two play this season.

Welcome to the post-Johan era.

2008 Result: 80-82, third in AL Central

Detroit Tigers (2007: 88-74, second in AL Central): I’ll guarantee this pick will result in at least five “What the F*** are you thinking you a**hole. The Tigers did the most to get better this off season!”

Granted, the Tigers did do a lot of work to get better—they went out and got Jacque Jones, Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Edgar Renteria, and Chris Shelton, while the only players they distanced themselves from were fringe players and former stars who are now approaching "greybeard" status.

But maybe, just maybe, someone doesn’t want to hop on the Tigers bandwagon and declare them as AL Central champs (although I’m not saying they won’t be competitive).

Pitching, as with the rest of the AL Central is a concern for the Tigers—especially in the rotation.

But let's start with the rotation.

The combined record of Detroit’s relievers last season was 18-14, and although that record could stand to be better, it’s nothing to scoff at. Looking deeper though, there could be some issues during the regular season.

For one, only one Detroit reliever (Yorman Bazardo) has a career ERA well below 4.00 (3.55). The other aspect of Detroit's bullpen is how inexperienced they are, as a majority of the relievers have only pitched in 50 or more games for the first time in 2007.

Will the Tigers' relievers respond well to a second consecutive year of a heavy workload? Well, they aren't left with much choice because if they respond poorly, their jobs may be at a shortage.

Now we'll move to the rotation.

Kenny Rogers is back for another year, but without Scott Boras. In 2006, Rogers went 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA—while in 2007, his season was shortened by injury to eleven games. In those eleven games, Rogers went 3-4 with a 4.43 ERA. He lost to teams like Kansas City (twice), the Chicago White Sox, and Seattle.

What’s more, Rogers hasn’t won a game since July 4, against the Cleveland Indians—in other words, he’s winless in eight starts.

Jeremy Bonderman’s biggest concerns are keeping down his ERA—which jumped by a full point between 2006 and 2007—and staying on the winning path. From April until June, Bonderman owned an eight-start winning streak, and finished the three-month span 8-1. Following that streak, Bonderman proceeded to go 2-2 in July, 1-4 in August, and 0-2 in September. For him, it was the tale of two halves, and he needs to be able to stay away from a prolonged losing streak if the Tigers have dream of contending.

In the same light, the Tigers need Nate Robertson to start winning divisional games for them. Everyone knows that whether it’s May or August, divisional games end up being huge in the standings—and having a pitcher who goes 3-5 in your division and 1-5 against last year’s playoff teams won’t help you get there.

Now let’s get to Dontrelle, shall we? Everyone says that this move puts the Tigers “over the top” and makes them a playoff team, and he’s expected to be a great pitcher. Now he very well could be that "missing piece", but on the other hand, his stats last season could dictate otherwise: 10-15 with a 5.17 ERA. Of course he was playing on a young Marlins squad, but shouldn’t he be great in spite of that?

There’s a saying: “Great pitchers will be great regardless”—that means that whatever happens, a great pitcher will go out there and give your team, not matter how sloppy they are, a chance to win the game.

Take a look at these two years from Roger Clemens:

1987: Boston’s Record: 78-84 Clemens Stats: 20-9 2.97 ERA
1992: Boston’s Record: 73-89 Clemens Stats: 18-11 2.41 ERA

Florida’s record last year was 71-91 and Byung-Hyun Kim was 9-5. Call me crazy, but perhaps Willis should be a little closer to the .500 mark?

Side-note: Before you go all: “But B-H Kim is a reliever"—he had a record of 2-1 as a reliever-not all of it with Florida. You can even take that 2-1 away from his Florida stats, and it still doesn’t help Dontrelle much. Also, the point is not to say that B-H Kim isn't a better pitcher because...well, he isn't. The issue I take with this is that if Kim can have a record over .500, I think that Willis should have been able to get a little closer to the .500 mark.

Also, if you look at the stats of pitchers who have spent time in both leagues, you'll find that pitchers such as Ted Lilly (a career best Win/Loss ratio and a .48 drop in ERA between 2006 and 2007), and Randy Johnson will see slight improvements in their statistics from the National League when compared to those of the American League.

For instance, let’s just look at Randy Johnson here:

AL: 333 starts 164-97 record 3.29 ERA 2545 Ks = 7.6k/start and won 49% of his starts
NL: 223 starts 120-57 record 3.10 ERA 2071 Ks = 9.3 k/start and won 54% of his starts

Granted, Dontrelle is his own man, but it’ll be interesting to see how he fares in the AL.

On the note of seeing how players fare, what becomes of Edgar Renteria? Renteria is the kind of player that thrives away from the spotlight, but when he’s shoved into prime time (like his year in Boston, for example), his stats start to shrink. With the added pressure on Detroit this year, it will be interesting to see how Renteria handles it.

Although the presence of Miguel Cabrera brings a presence in the batting order that's as imposing as Cabrera is large (I'm expecting him to have a season with 25-30 homers and 105-110 RBI), there's one man who may cast a slight shadow over him—Curtis Granderson.

Granderson will (barring injury) continue to be one of the bright young superstars in the AL. The kid does it all: hits for average, power, doubles, triples, steals bases, and plays defense exceptionally well. In addition to that, he seems like the kind of guy that if he had a major flaw, he’d stay late at practice just so he could improve.

On a team filled with guys like Magglio Ordonez, Placido Polanco (two of the top five in the majors for average, and Polanco hasn’t committed an error in over a year), Jacque Jones, Carlos Guillen, and Ivan Rodriguez, Granderson may be quickly evolving into one of the best all-around players that league and on-the-field leaders we might ever see. He posted a twenty doubles, triples, homers, and steals last year, becoming the third player to ever accomplish that feat.

Add in to that equation that he has a personality that's more pleasant than the Pope and you certainly have a winner.

Will the Tigers offense struggle this season? Well after reading the names above, they certainly won't.

long with Granderson and Cabrera, you've already got the average champs (Polanco and Ordonez, as listed above), Gary Sheffield (who has always hit more than 25 HR each year he's had more than 450 at-bats—except for 1990), Marcus Thames (who could threaten the 30HR barrier with a full, healthy season), and Jacque Jones—who has proven that he can put up some solid power numbers in the AL Central.

Again, the Tigers offense will not be the weak spot. They're a team that can score eight runs any given day. The big question is if their pitchers can give up fewer than eight on those days.

The last question I have for the Tigers is this: When is Joel Zumaya going to stop hurting himself in odd ways? He’s like the Brian Griese of the MLB. Oh, and when he retires—does he become Guitar Hero Champion of the World? You decide.

2008 Prediction: 90-72, second in AL East (they’ll be in a tight chase with the Jays for the Wild Card—just like the olden days!)

Cleveland Indians (96-66, first in AL Central): Wait, the Indians still exist?

That's right. The Indians didn't go anywhere in the off-season, and they're in control of their own destinies with regards as to whether or not they want to stay atop the AL Central.

With a starting staff consisting of C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Paul Byrd, and Jake Westbrook, the Indians went a combined 59-32 when any of those four were credited with the games outcome. What’s further, against divisional opponents and playoff teams, those four starters went 30-19, with Jake Westbrook (2-8) having the only sub-.500 record against those teams—meaning that the Indians had three pitchers go 28-11 in their division and against playoff-bound teams.

Aside from who rounds out the final spot of the rotation (it could be Aaron Laffey), and praying that Fausto Carmona doesn’t suffer the same fate that Liriano did his sophomore year, the Indians starting staff appears ready to dominate the competition.

Moving to the bullpen, four relievers (Rafael Bentacourt, Rafael Perez, Aaron Fultz, and Jensen Lewis) had ERAs under 4.00 (both Rafael’s were under 2.00), and the bullpen had a record of 18-9, without including closer Joe Borowski.

The reason why Borowski isn’t included? Borowski blew eight save opportunities—second only to Chad Cordero in Washington. Also, of closers with at least 16 saves, Borowski had the highest ERA at 5.07 (also worth noting: Borowski never pitched more than an inning in any game this season). By comparison, Detroit’s Todd Jones only blew six saves, and had an ERA of 4.26, giving the Tigers a slight edge in the closer department.

We then go to Cleveland’s offense and defense: with Josh Barfield likely to start the season in Buffalo, Asdrubal Cabrera will take over second base, forming a strong middle infield with Jhonny Peralta. Add into that Casey Blake, Victor Martinez (the best offensive catcher of 2007), Ryan Garko, and Travis Hafner (DH), and the entire Indians infield is a threat to go deep twenty times each during the season (except for Cabrera).

Then we move to the outfield. Grady Sizemore could very well develop a race between himself and Curtis Granderson for who could be the first to a 30/30 season this year. Throw into that the triplet of David Dellucci, Franklin Gutierrez, and Jason Michaels and the Indians have a very formidable team that can beat you with some of their best players on the bench.

It must be nice to live in Cleveland lately.

2008 Prediction: 94-68, first in AL Central.