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Alabama Football: What Are the Odds Auburn Stuns Everyone in the Iron Bowl?

TUSCALOOSA, AL - NOVEMBER 05:  Trent Richardson #3 of the Alabama Crimson Tide runs with the ball during the first half of the game against the LSU Tigers at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 5, 2011 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Johnathan CaceCorrespondent INovember 17, 2011

It is widely assumed that Alabama will win the rest of the games on its schedule. The Auburn Tigers are not okay with that assumption.

They are 6-4 with all of their losses coming to teams currently ranked in the top 15 and are ranked 24th in the BCS themselves.

With the Iron Bowl being played at Auburn, what are the odds that the Tigers will give the Tide a second loss on the season?

Pretty slim.

The primary problem for this team has been defense. In all four of the Tigers' losses, they gave up either 38 or 45 points. The only other times they gave up more than 30 they nearly lost to Utah State and Mississippi State.

All of the games where Auburn gave up less than 30 points were games against teams who rank 86th or worse in yards per game; two of those teams don’t have winning records—a combined 2-17.

Alabama’s offense ranks right up there with the best teams the Tigers have played all season. The Tide are scoring an average of 34 points per game—25th nationally—and running back Trent Richardson is sixth in the country in rushing yards.

The other major problem for Auburn has been turnovers. In the four losses, the Tigers have lost the turnover battle by a combined 9-4, accounting for more than half their turnovers.

In order to pull the upset against a team as good as Alabama, Auburn cannot afford to turn over the ball.

Clint Moseley has been pretty efficient since taking over for Barrett Trotter, but he has thrown an interception in both losses that he started. The Tide have 11 interceptions on the season in addition to having far and away the best statistical defense in the country.

Crazy things can happen in rivalry games and the past two Iron Bowls have certainly been wacky with the eventual loser leading in the first half of both games by double digits.

Still, this year’s Alabama team appears incredibly focused and unless Auburn can come out with something we have never seen before, the Tide will come out victorious.

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