Jason Kidd Deal: Point Guard Headed to Dallas?

On January 28, I wrote an article about the possible destinations of Nets' point guard Jason Kidd.

It was no secret that the Mavericks were interested in obtaining Kidd.

Here's what I wrote about the prospects of the Mavs being able to pull of a deal:

"The Mavericks definitely meet the criteria of a team willing to give Kidd a lucrative extension. They have a young big with an expiring contract in DeSagana Diop. He's not exactly the type of franchise center that the Nets would hope to find but he can be re-signed for a reasonable amount of money. Even though he's in his seventh year he just turned 26.

As far as point guards go, the Mavericks wouldn't trade Devin Harris no matter how enamored they might be with Kidd. Harris is rarely mentioned in the same category as Deron Williams or Chris Paul but he is an emerging talent on the brink of stardom.

The Mavs would have to get creative to make the salaries work, since their highest-paid players are either untouchable (Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard) or extremely overpaid (Erik Dampier).

That leaves Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse as the principles in any trade. The problem is that both would have to be included in the trade and that might be too steep a price for Dallas to pay. Terry, Stackhouse and either Diop or Devean George for Kidd trade works but is unlikely because it would leave Dallas' bench especially thin.

New Jersey might promise to release Stackhouse and he would be free to re-sign with Dallas but that might be too big a risk for Dallas. Terry also has a horrible contract that pays him $11.5 million for the 2011-12 season.

Even though the Mavericks are the team that's talked about most as a destination they have the least attractive package to offer."

So most of my prediction was correct, but I was way off base in my insistence that the Mavs would be unwilling to part with Devin Harris. Surely, Dallas would have preferred to part with Jason Terry over Harris but my guess is that the Nets issued a "take-it-or-leave-it" proposal that included Harris. The Mavs were probably afraid that another team, namely the Cavs, might steal Kidd away.

Here are the specifics of the trade: Dallas sends Harris, Stackhouse, Diop, George, Maurice Ager, a first-round pick in 2008 and 2010 and $3 million to the Nets for Kidd and Malik Allen.

A scenario in which Stackhouse is released and returns to Dallas, as I mentioned above, is already being discussed. However, Stackhouse would have to sit out 30 days before he could re-sign with the Mavs. That opens up the possibility for teams like the Lakers, Spurs, Celtics, Suns, Cavs, Pistons and Nuggets to pounce on him before he can return to Big D.

So what are the ramifications for both teams, short and long-term?

For the Mavericks, they get one of the greatest point guards in the history of the NBA. Unlike most point guards, Kidd relies on his brain more than on athleticism. His numbers this season are on par with his career averages.

His rebound and assist numbers have slightly increased, but his scoring average and shooting percentage have dropped a little. He's averaging three points less than his career average (14.3 to 11.3) and his shooting percentage is at 37 percent compared to his career average of 40 percent.

Kidd should benefit tremendously from this trade, both athletically and financially. He won't be asked to score much;his primary job is to stay healthy, ease the burden off of Dirk Nowitzki, set up his teammates, provide toughness and play defense.

As I wrote in my January article, "Schwartz (Kidd's agent) would also like to see Kidd end up on a team that will give him the extension he's eligible for at season's end."

Mark Cuban knew going in that he would have to give Kidd at least a one-year extension. Despite what anyone says, this was the real motivation for Kidd's trade request. Just like it was the real reason that Shaq wanted off the Lakers and the real reason that Shawn Marion wanted out of Phoenix. The Nets had no inclination to sign Kidd when they knew the team was headed nowhere and he wasn't getting any younger.

Since teams can sign their own free-agents to contracts that are over the salary cap, any player who feels like he might not be re-signed and doesn't want to risk taking a substantial pay-cut on the open market, wants to be traded to a team that will re-sign him. 

The downside for the Mavericks is that they've lost their best young player in Devin Harris. They've also committed themselves to paying a whopping $72 million next year to Kidd, Nowitzki, Howard, Dampier and Terry alone. I'm thinking that Cuban would much rather pay $21 million to Kidd next year to play for the Mavs than the $19 million he'll no longer have to pay Michael Finley to play for the Spurs.

The Mavericks have also lost their best young big man in Diop and (possibly) their best reserve in Jerry Stackhouse. The losses of George and Ager won't effect them much.

The Mavs' are also very thin on their bench now. They add Allen to Jason Terry, Trenton Hassell, Juwan Howard and Brandon Bass. Juwan Howard and Dampier will now have to contend with Shaquille O'Neal, Andrew Bynum, Marcus Camby and Tim Duncan in the West.

While the Lakers and Suns went out and made moves to solidify their front-courts, the Mavs sought to to strengthen their back-court at the expense of front-line depth. Allen is a nice shooter for a big guy but he won't help defensively.

This move was made to establish a sense of urgency with this existing group of players. While Nowitzki isn't going anywhere, the next guy to go will probably be Josh Howard if the team continues to struggle in the playoffs. 

As for the long-term, the Mavs have $45 million committed to just Nowitzki, Dampier and Terry for the 2010-11 season and a $12 million option for Josh Howard. Even if they renounce Howard they won't have cap space to go after LeBron James, Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade unless they can unload either Terry or Dampier.

Does this move make the Mavs better? Maybe.Especially if they can bring Stackhouse back.

If not, this looks like a lateral move for the present and a horrible move for the future. I like Harris a lot and I truly believe he is one of the NBA's up-and-coming superstars. If the Mavs can't get past the second round of the playoffs then this move was a mistake, especially if they end up giving Kidd an extension for more than a year.

There were four things I listed that the Nets would be looking for in a trade for Kidd—cap space, a big man, a point guard and draft picks. Let's see how they did...

1) Cap Space

The Nets got three guys, George, Diop, and Stackhouse, who are in the last year of their contracts. They got another guy in Ager who has one more year left on his deal at $1 million. Harris and Ager are a combined $9 million in salary for next year as opposed to the $21 million owed to Kidd.

They still don't have a significant amount of cap space for this off-season but will have plenty for the summer of 2009. They could have had significant cap space just by letting Kidd go but wouldn't have got anything for him in return.

2) Big Man

Diop isn't a superstar big man, but for a team that has had such bad luck at the center position he provides them with a serviceable, cheap and young alternative. Diop is in his seventh season in the league yet he's still only 26 years-old. The Nets can either let him go at the end of the season or sign him to a below mid-level type deal for three or four years.

3) Point Guard

Harris turns 25 in two weeks. He has great size for a point guard at 6'3" and is signed for a very manageable contract, five more years and $42 million. He's extremely quick and is considered an above-average defender. The only skill Harris lacks is his ability to shoot from the outside. The good thing about Harris is that he knows ihis weakness, so he doesn't take a lot of bad shots. He's shooting 48 percent from the field and averaging 14 points and 5 assists per game.

4) Draft Picks

In addition to $3 million in cash, the Nets received first-round picks in 2008 and 2010. The 2008 pick will end up in the 25-29 range but the 2010 pick might be more valuable. With the cap space they'll get, the Nets could package a draft pick or two to absorb a player from another team in trade.

The rumors of a Vince Carter-for-Jermaine O'Neal deal still won't die. If the Nets make that deal they might make the playoffs this year. O'Neal's contract would expire in the summer of 2010 and give the Nets tons of cap room to pursue minority owner Jay-Z's good friend LeBron James, before the team's planned move to Brooklyn.

New Jersey would also be much more attractive to James with Harris and Jefferson. O'Neal might stick around for $10 million a year if he's honest in saying that he just wants to win. He'll be 33 and lucky to get that much money elsewhere.

The Nets have some decent role players on their team in Sean Williams, Bostjan Nachbar and Josh Boone. Nenad Krstic will be fully recovered from his knee surgery by the start of next season. The Harris acquisition might mark the beginning of the end in New Jersey for Marcus Williams.

So who got the better of the trade? If you judge the trade on who got the better player then the Mavs are the winners. If you judge it on who got more of what they needed than the Nets clearly got the better end.