Cleveland Indians: Projecting the 2012 Opening Day Roster, November Edition

Who will make the Tribe's Opening Day roster?
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Projecting the Cleveland Indians' 2012 Opening Day roster has become easier with the Derek Lowe trade, the picking up of Fausto Carmona's option and the declining of Grady Sizemore's, but there's still plenty of guesswork to be done. 

The Tribe still could use an upgrade at first base and in the outfield for sure and could potentially not be done tweaking their starting rotation. Plus, given the volatile nature of bullpens, it isn't a stretch to think the Indians could look at upgrading there as well.

With the picture a little less hazy than it was in October, let's take another stab at what lineup the Indians will be running out on April 5, 2012 on Opening Day.

I'm treating this set of predictions as more of a best-case scenario, but all the moves are still within the realm of possibility (so not signing Albert Pujols). Some of these probably won't happen, but you never know.

Starting Rotation

Derek Lowe is the new addition to the Indians' rotation.
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1. Ubaldo Jimenez

2. Justin Masterson

3. Josh Tomlin

4. Fausto Carmona

5. Derek Lowe

Turns out the mystery man I predicted in my October preview will be Derek Lowe. Not who I was hoping for, but I do think it was a great pickup for the Tribe.

Personally, I'm not a fan of keeping Fausto Carmona, but it seems to be the only practical option at this point.

I really think the Tribe will focus on upgrading the offense over the rotation, and they seem sold on Carmona. I still think we're missing a true No. 3 starter, but that's just my opinion. Maybe keeping Carmona is part of a grander plan. 

If the Indians are well in contention by July, they could easily look for starting pitching at the trade deadline. For now, however, I expect this to be the rotation on Opening Day.

Bullpen

What if David Huff is best suited to be in the bullpen?
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Closer: Chris Perez

Set-Up Men: Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp

Middle Relief: Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone

Long-Relief: David Huff

The only thing I changed here is putting Huff in and taking Frank Herrmann out.

I like Herrmann, but he seems best suited to be the guy the Tribe shuffles between AAA and the big league club as needed. 

As for Huff, I think he'd be best suited to only pitching two or three innings at a time.

He isn't striking out enough batters to be really effective (only 6.39 SO/9 in 2011), but his walks are pretty well controlled (3.02 BB/9).

If Huff didn't have to pace himself, it is very possible his strikeouts could rise, making him a more effective pitcher. If making this switch got his 2.12 SO:BB in the majors up to the level he was at in the minors (2.94 SO:BB), he'd be worth even more to the Tribe.

With Jeanmar Gomez and Zach McAllister still available to fill in for any starts in the rotation, the Indians have enough depth to experiment with Huff here.

If he can be an above-average major league reliever, then that beats him being an average to below-average major league starter. It's a chance I think the Indians could take.

Lineup vs. Right-Handed Pitching

Adding Carlos Pena would add considerable pop to the Indians' lineup.
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1. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS (.273/.340/.405 slash line, .746 OPS, .329 wOBA in 1614 PA) - S

2. Shin-Soo Choo, RF (.301/.400/.511 slash line, .911 OPS, .391 wOBA in 1614 PA) - L

3. Travis Hafner, DH (.290/.392/.540 slash line, .932 OPS, .393 wOBA in 2908 PA) - L

4. Carlos Pena, 1B (.251/.370/.511 slash line, .881 OPS, .376 wOBA in 3377 PA) - L

5. Carlos Santana, C (.225/.343/.448 slash line, .792 OPS, .343 wOBA in 574 PA) - S

6. B.J. Upton, CF (.254/.330/.412 slash line, .742 OPS, .327 wOBA in 2410 PA) - R

7. Jason Kipnis, 2B (.276/.327/.551 slash line, .878 OPS, .374 wOBA in 107 PA) - L

8. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B (.253/.282/.358 slash line, .640 OPS, .279 wOBA in 171 PA) - L

9. Michael Brantley, LF (.278/.324/.389 slash line, .713 OPS, .314 wOBA in 683 PA) - L

The Tribe hardly needs any help mashing right-handed pitching considering how lefty-heavy their lineup was in 2011, but the addition of Carlos Pena would help the output from the first base position considerably.

He would come with a price, but the Indians are considered one of the places he may sign. I think it would help the Indians considerably if they added him.

I think that Kipnis and Chisenhall could force their way up this lineup as the season progresses. They both are still young and could easily grow into their own in 2012.

The same goes for Brantley.

I don't want to see him as the starting center fielder, but he hits right-handers fairly well and plays good defense in left field. Only using him in those situations is how I think the Indians should maximize Brantley's value.

Lineup vs. Left-Handed Pitching

Adding B.J. Upton would give the Indians a great right-handed bat.
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1. Jason Donald, 2B (.328/.405/.481 slash line, .886 OPS, .389 wOBA in 148 PA) - R

2. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS (.301/.350/.436 slash line, .786 OPS, .343 wOBA in 663 PA) - S

3. B.J. Upton, CF (.264/.372/.428 slash line, .800 OPS, .352 wOBA in 1020 PA) - R

4. Carlos Santana, 1B (.282/.402/.480 slash line, .882 OPS, .383 wOBA in 276 PA) - S

5. Shelley Duncan, LF (.256/.328/.441 slash line, .769 OPS, .332 wOBA in 303 PA) - R

6. Travis Hafner, DH (.260/.362/.445 slash line, .807 OPS, .353 wOBA in 1312 PA) - L

7. Shin-Soo Choo, RF (.267/.345/.383 slash line, .728 OPS, .326 wOBA in 665 PA) - L

8. Jack Hannahan, 3B (.249/.323/.358 slash line, .681 OPS, .305 wOBA in 383 PA) - R

9. Lou Marson, C (.285/.367/.395 slash line, .763 OPS, .341 wOBA in 199 PA) - R

In making this lineup, I don't want to imply that Donald should always start over Kipnis at second, Duncan always start over Brantley in left, Hannahan always start over Chisenhall at third and have Marson-LaPorta-Santana always start over Santana-Pena-Hafner at catcher, first and DH respectively.

If this happened a good amount of the time, however, these platoon splits heavily favor the Indians.

This is where B.J. Upton's presence would really be felt. Adding Upton would give the Indians a much-needed right-handed bat that would really balance out their lineup.

Also, considering his plus-defense in center field makes him the biggest need of the Tribe going into 2012.

It wouldn't be a bad thing to get Marson and Hannahan's defense in the lineup as frequently as possible, and their presence as right-handed hitters on a team filled with left-handed hitters makes this the ideal situation. 

Hafner is starting to fade against lefties (.233/.259/.379 slash line, .638 OPS .278 wOBA in 108 PA in 2011), but considering his career numbers, there's a chance he'll rebound.

And finally, I continue to find no place for Matt LaPorta. If the Indians are supposed to be competing in 2012, they can't afford to continue to see LaPorta waste at-bats.

Start him in AAA next year and see if he can find his groove. If he can't do it in AAA, he can't do it in the majors.

Payroll

This construction of the 25-man roster is around the $70 million limit the Tribe has for 2012.
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You might be wondering how these moves would add up. Here's a quick summary:

Twelve minimum-salary players (about $413,000 each): SP Josh Tomlin, RPs David Huff, Nick Hagadone, Vinnie Pestano and Tony Sipp, Cs Carlos Santana and Lou Marson, 2Bs Jason Kipnis and Jason Donald, 3B Lonnie Chisenhall, OFs Michael Brantley and Shelley Duncan.

Seven arbitration players (estimated earnings): SP Justin Masterson ($3.6 million), RPs Chris Perez ($4.2 million), Rafael Perez ($1.9 million) and Joe Smith ($1.6 million), SS Asdrubal Cabrera ($4.8 million), 3B Jack Hannahan ($1.3 million) and OF Shin-Soo Choo ($4.3 million).

Four guaranteed contracts: SPs Ubaldo Jimenez ($4.2 million), Derek Lowe ($5 million) and Fausto Carmona ($7 million), DH Travis Hafner ($13 million).

Two free agents/trades: 1B Carlos Pena ($8.5 million), CF B.J. Upton ($7 million).

In total, this adds up to just over $71 million. Considering that the payroll is expected to be allowed to go as high as $70 million, that extra $1 million shouldn't be that much.

When looking at how well this construction of the lineup fits together, I hope the Indians can find the extra money somewhere. In the long run, it isn't all that much.

Like I said in the intro, I'm treating this November prediction more as a best-case scenario. I'm not convinced Pena will sign with us or Upton is actually available in a trade.

But this is what I hope the Indians pull off this offseason and what the Opening Day lineup will look like.