12 Little-Discussed Schools That Could Make Great BCS AQ Conference Members

The same tired schools are constantly mentioned for BCS status.

Why is that? 

I believe it is because BCS conferences—with the exception of the Big East—are mostly pulling schools from other BCS conferences at this point. 

The Big East is looking for teams that are doing well during the current BCS evaluation period that lasts until 2013. The conference worries about a potential rule tweak after 2013 that could see them removed from the list of AQ conferences and forced to "earn" their AQ spot through BCS measurables—like non-AQ conferences have to do today.

Even the "surprise" on the Big East's list (SMU) made sense based off the BCS evaluation criteria, first...and on the geographic need to appease Boise State.

But what happens when the Big East has twelve football members and they only lose one or two down the road? What happens to that "meet the evaluation criteria" mentality after 2013?

Perhaps nothing. Perhaps the BCS evaluation criteria stay about the same with short evaluation intervals.

But I suspect at that point we may see a dramatic change in the schools which troubled AQ conferences (the Big East and perhaps the Big 12, too) look to add to replace future losses. Or the schools some other conferences look to add. 

You may see a shift towards, "How do these schools project at the AQ level?" thinking. 

We have already seen the Big 12 hint at this type of thinking with its brief consideration of Tulane and Houston. We have seen this a few times in the past, with schools like Utah, Cincinnati and South Carolina making large leaps from the have-not world into their current conferences based on favored attributes and potential over perhaps more developed candidates (BYU, Memphis and Clemson, respectively), and I believe we are likely to see it again in the next five years.

It is an exciting topic for me as longtime realignment editorialist.

It took Baylor almost 20 years to sniff average in football in the Big 12. No one wants another Baylor. No one wants a school who can't make something happen with an AQ TV check.

Which schools could take the $8-16 million raise that comes with being in a BCS conference and, in short order, build a strong AQ-caliber program?

What if the BCS elite vote to eliminate the automatic qualifier designation? Suddenly, considerations like how a school does in BCS standings or their academics may be out the window for a conference like the Football Big East. Attendance and attendance potential may be the new key measurables.

I have endeavored to put together a list of schools that could deliver enough financial value to be worth a BCS AQ conference addition and would project as competitive AQ members in a short time frame (say, three to four years).

So who are the AQ candidates—the solid gold prospects of tomorrow—that few fans are discussing today?

1. Tulane Green Wave

Current conference: Conference USA
 

Prestige
US News ranking: 50 (among National Universities)
State flagship: N/A
Annual research dollars (in millions): $153
Endowment (in millions): $807
 

Enrollment
Enrollment sufficient? Yes
Enrollment: ~12,600 students
 

TV Argument
Native designated market area: (53) New Orleans
Additional media relevance claims: N/A
 

Football
Stadium capacity: 76,468
2010 average attendance: 23,220
NFL competition for ticket sales: Yes
 

Basketball
Arena capacity: 3600
2011 average attendance: 1843
NBA competition for ticket sales: Yes
 

Optimal AQ Home
Optimal conference: The Big 12
Projected FB attendance there: ~35,000-40,000
Projected BB attendance there: 3600+

I want to retain my readers through this report, so let's talk competitiveness first. Tulane was competitive when they were a member of the SEC with LSU.  Since then, in lesser conferences with smaller budgets and in the shadow of the NFL's Saints, times have been hard.

Still, Tulane did go 11-0 in 1998 under Tommy Bowden. If you can go undefeated at the BCS non-AQ level, you probably do have the assets in your area to make competing in a BCS AQ conference possible.

Right up the road from Tulane, you have LSU, who is recruiting enough BCS-caliber talent in depth to be a consistent national contender, and Southern Miss, who has finished with a losing record only five times in the last 36 seasons—as well as SWAC power Southern.

The reasons those schools do so well?

Southern Mississippi and Louisiana are hotbeds for football talent.

Tulane is a great academic school. They have access to an NFL stadium. If you give them the ability to draw much better crowds and a lot of disposable income to throw into improving the football program, the talent is there to compete.

There are a lot of reasons Tulane was briefly mentioned by the Big 12 as a potential candidate this year. The first is academics. Tulane is a more highly rated academic university than most members of AQ conferences. Adding Tulane would not cost the Big 12 any loss of stature in the ranks of the AQ conferences.

An enrollment of over 12,000 students is more than sufficient for a private university in a large metro area to draw reasonable crowds in a BCS conference. New Orleans is football crazy.

In the Big 12, Tulane would likely have a home game a year versus UT or OU that would draw northwards of 50,000 due to the fact that both are big draws, New Orleans is a great vacation spot and that SEC fans could not help but buy tickets to cheer against those southwest invaders. One would think that the rest of the Big 12 would draw a little better than CUSA schools, but just a little.

The New Orleans media market is a solid size, with about 600,000 TV households.

The stadium is an NFL stadium and can handle any turnout a Big 12 school generates. The basketball arena is way too small, but making an additional $12-16 million a year from a Big 12 TV share could quickly fix that.

Also, it is important to note that the Saints have had recurring talks of leaving for a bigger market and the Hornets' ownership is in a state of flux. While this is a nice sized market for a college team, it is small for pro sports. The move of either pro team would immediately create a much bigger opportunity for Tulane, as the University of New Orleans is no longer a Division I school.

Finally getting back to the most important question—can they compete?

As I mentioned above, Mississippi and Louisiana are recruiting hotbeds. (From a football perspective, UT and OU might favor the admission simply to have a better shot to recruit this area.) Mississippi is a source of a lot of big, athletic defensive tackle prospects. Louisiana produces a ton of speedy receivers and cornerbacks.

An AQ-level Tulane would be well-situated to land more talent at those key areas.

A recruiter the caliber of Tommy Bowden might be willing to take the job.

SEC fans would ridicule the addition of Tulane to the Big 12, but it doesn't make it any less viable. Tulane was a former member of the SEC and competed well in that conference in the days before the NFL. The attributes are there to allow Tulane to compete at a bowl level in the Big 12.

2. University of Alabama at Birmingham Blazers

Current conference: Conference USA
 

Prestige
US News ranking: 143 (among National Universities)
State flagship: No
Annual research dollars (in millions): $404
Endowment (in millions): $332
 

Enrollment
Enrollment sufficient? Yes
Enrollment: 18,777 students
 

TV Argument
Native designated market area: (40) Birmingham
Additional media relevance claims: N/A
 

Football
Stadium capacity: 71,594
2010 average attendance: 18,360
NFL competition for ticket sales: No
 

Basketball
Arena capacity: 8508
2011 average attendance: 5167
NBA competition for ticket sales: No
 

Optimal AQ Home
Optimal conference: The Big East
Projected FB attendance there: ~23,000 to start.
Projected BB attendance there: ~6000 to start.

Academically, UAB falls just lower than the body of AQ schools, but they do a ton of research, which balances that equation. They would be a respectable AQ addition academically.

With over 18,000 students enrolled, UAB has the required student backbone to support AQ-level FBS football at a public school. Its location in a fairly large city with no NFL or NBA competition really paints the picture of limitless potential.

So why haven't they scratched that potential? In my opinion, mostly a lack of funding and institutional control brought on by shady SEC politics. Auburn and Alabama boosters do not want UAB cutting into their talent pool, so they interfere.

Look at the history of UAB hiring, including Alabama blocking the Jimbo Fisher hire attempt.

If UAB was admitted into the new, more expansive AQ Big East, they could suddenly have an additional $6-8 million dollars a year to spend—regardless of what Alabama or Auburn may chose to do politically. 

Does UAB want to hire Bobby or Terry Bowden at $2.5 million a year to recruit against the SEC powers? Simply have the Big East require the university to spend $2.5 million of their TV share on a head coach as terms of their admission.

Done. 

(Remember, Terry's father Bobby was born in Birmingham. Terry was screwed over by Auburn boosters and Bobby felt jilted by Alabama back in the day. The latter story was that Bobby felt he would be offered the Crimson Tide job and that Alabama felt they were being nice just to let him interview.)

Does UAB want to plow $3 million a year into desperately needed facility upgrades?

Done. That may not build a new stadium, but you can build the kind of facilities that help your recruiting or improve stadium seating to help your game-day draws.

So how well could UAB do at the BCS level? 

Frankly, I think they could be very good. In spite of a lack of funding preventing them from retaining their coaches, they consistently do very well on the court in basketball already.  I think this comes out of the fact that there is a lot of surplus talent in the deep south even after the SEC takes theirs.

In football, if UAB had the money to land a name recruiting coach, like one of the Bowdens, an AQ UAB could likely steal depth from nearby SEC schools like Ole Miss and Mississippi State, starters from strong Sun Belt school Troy, as well as chip away at the bottoms of the rosters of Auburn and Alabama.

A good coach like Bowden could take that kind of talent into a weaker Big East and be an annual threat to win the title.

What would that equate to in attendance? I cannot say. That is the major drawback to me about UAB. If admitted, they would start at or near the bottom in attendance in any BCS conference. 

On the positive side, there is no NFL cap on how well UAB could draw in Birmingham.  They averaged over 23,000 in 2006, so I consider that a safe number for an AQ upgraded UAB in a Big East conference with no elite draws. 

I think, in simple terms, if they win, their attendance will continue to grow. I think a compressed version of TCU's attendance growth pattern would be likely if a good coach who excels at recruiting the Deep South was in place.

There is nothing but solvable facility issues preventing UAB from being a top basketball program in the Big East. The Blazers' basketball culture would fit well there. It would not be out of the question at all to see a UAB basketball program in the Big East emerge as regularly the best in the state.

3. East Carolina Pirates

Current conference: Conference USA
 

Prestige
US News ranking: 194 (among National Universities)
State flagship: No
Annual research dollars (in millions): ?
Endowment (in millions): $103
 

Enrollment
Enrollment sufficient? Yes
Enrollment: 27,816 students
 

TV Argument
Native designated market area: (105) Greenville
Additional media relevance claims: (28) Raleigh-Durham
 

Football
Stadium capacity: 50,000*
2010 average attendance: 49,665
NFL competition for ticket sales: No
 

Basketball
Arena capacity: 8000
2011 average attendance: 4566
NBA competition for ticket sales: No
 

Optimal AQ Home
Optimal conference: The Southeastern Conference, The Big East
Projected FB attendance there: 57,000 to start
Projected BB attendance there: ~6000 to start

East Carolina is a school that looks better and better as a candidate as you study them.

North Carolina is a state with an SEC-like love of football, but that love has never been fed. There are only two "football schools" in North Carolina—Appalachian State, an attendance leader at the FCS level, and East Carolina, an attendance leader at the non-AQ level.

East Carolina can be that school at the BCS AQ level. 

They have been given permission to expand their stadium to 58,000, and that is merely the latest in an ongoing series of stadium expansions. 

They have a large fan base and their students are consumed with football. Those students graduate and many move into the neighboring Raleigh-Durham area and across the state, where they continue to follow and support ECU football, watching the games live (and on TV) and buying the merchandise.

While North Carolina's and North Carolina State's stadiums have grown over the last 30 years, they do not match the speed of growth of East Carolina's football support. It is entirely possible that ECU in an AQ conference might match or surpass the football support either ACC school enjoys.

Lets talk about the longshot for ECU first.

The SEC has dramatically improved its academic profile with the addition of Texas A&M and impending addition of Missouri. It is questionable whether the SEC would consider adding a school that would be by far the lowest ranked in their conference, but the SEC is talking about new markets in their expansion and North Carolina is a populous neighboring state that is football crazy and produces a lot of football talent.

The SEC and ACC have a longstanding relationship. There is a thought among SEC fans that the SEC and ACC have already talked out the future of SEC expansion. 

The logic pushed by a few SEC fans claiming to be in the know is that Florida State is going to eventually jump to the SEC, despite the presence of the University of Florida. 

Florida is a huge state. The SEC could add a second team and it could still make financial sense in a TV setting. 

The Seminoles are a national name brand in football with great TV value. They have a hot young coach who seems very rooted in the job. FSU seems poised to once more be a dominant team for the next decade. 

So one can see how, despite the SEC's talk of "new territory," FSU might make sense for the SEC.

The idea is that the SEC has not already admitted to poaching FSU to allow the ACC every prestige advantage in raiding other conferences in the here and now.

(Now, it should also be noted that allegedly there is a three SEC school alliance—Florida, Georgia and South Carolina—sworn to jointly work together to block the admission of Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson in order to protect the their better football recruiting and fundraising positions afforded by SEC membership. The SEC fans' claim suggests the SEC has gotten beyond that and that Florida was the only dissenting vote in admitting FSU.)

If all of this is true, the likely second target of the SEC would be North Carolina State to add North Carolina for a contiguous footprint, rather than the frequently mentioned Virginia Tech.  

But there are potential problems with the admission of either school. 

Virginia Tech had to play state politics to get into the ACC. Will they really be allowed to leave their much more politically powerful and prestigous neighbor Virginia in the dust for a bigger paycheck? I am not convinced that will be easy or quick.

North Carolina State may also have no interest in leaving academic elites North Carolina and Duke behind. Those universities have very deeply intertwined relationships.

Which is the scenario where ECU could enter the SEC picture. Adding ECU would protect the ACC.  ECU in the SEC would give the SEC statewide viewership. Where ECU football stands today is not far from where South Carolina football stood when they were admitted. They would likely quickly expand their stadium and fandom with SEC dollars coming in. 

They could permanently take the title as the dominant football program in the state.

The real question of ECU's candidacy is academics. Does the SEC want to add a school that would be an academic knuckledragger at the AQ level?

Much less of a longshot for ECU would be admission to the Big East.

About 90 percent of AQ schools are ranked 140 or higher in the US News "National Universities" category (meaning they do some research and grant a number of doctorates.)  ECU, while a fine university, clearly falls short there. This means any AQ conference that admits them will be seen as "slumming it" academically.

ECU has offered to join the Big East as a football-only member—a move that would do a lot to deflect AQ criticism at the Big East for adding a comparatively weak academic school.

It is a smart offer by ECU. A football-only membership to the Big East would likely bring in another $4-plus million in TV revenue each year to help fuel stadium upgrades. Playing on a larger stage would also help ECU grow their game-day fanbase. 

That said, this article is about potential.

It could be a much smarter play by the Big East to take the "academic hit" and add ECU on terms—ECU would need to spend fairly big money on their football and basketball coaches. Paying their best coaches has always been a problem at ECU.

ECU is located in a state that is one of the nation's basketball hotbeds. They draw 5000 a game with an awful team in an average basketball conference.

A full membership in the Big East would probably yield ECU an added $8-plus million TV dollars. That would be more than enough to pay top dollar for a proven winner in the area. How would ECU look to the basketball-centric Big East if they had a solid and improving basketball program headed by a proven tournament coach with statewide credibility? (Perhaps former VCU coach Jeff Capel?)

I think that would be a very valuable TV asset for the Big East.

Should the BCS elite decide to do away with automatic qualifier status for conferences, the Big East may see a need to add a few more schools with better football attendances to secure alliances with bowls with larger payouts. 

East Carolina would be at the top of that list.

4. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Current conference: Conference USA
 

Prestige
US News ranking: 75 (among National Universities)
State flagship: N/A
Annual research dollars (in millions): ?
Endowment (in millions): $915
 

Enrollment
Enrollment sufficient? Yes
Enrollment: ~4165 students
 

TV Argument
Native designated market area: (60) Tulsa
Additional media relevance claims: N/A
 

Football
Stadium capacity: 30,000
2010 average attendance: 20,379
NFL competition for ticket sales: No
 

Basketball
Arena capacity: 8355
2011 average attendance: 5676
NBA competition for ticket sales: No
 

Optimal AQ Home
Optimal conference: The Big East
Projected FB attendance there: ~26,000 to start
Projected BB attendance there: ~7700 to start

Tulsa's current season record is a perfect representation of their case for inclusion. Tulsa is a mere 7-3.  Okay on the surface, but hardly enthralling. But look a little closer.

They are 6-0 in CUSA and their three defeats consist of a season-opening loss to then-No. 1 OU, 47-14, a Week 3 loss to the offensively potent OSU, 59-33, and a Week 4 loss to then-No. 4 Boise State, 41-21.

That is Tulsa in a nutshell. A tough team and a game competitor.

And that isn't just in football.

Since the days of Nolan Richardson, Tulsa has been a fairly regular NIT or NCAA basketball tournament participant. The Golden Hurricane draw fairly well in basketball, but split the city with Oral Roberts.  Tulsa's arena can also be a limiting factor at times. 

In an AQ conference, the money would be there to expand the arena. In a good basketball conference like the Big East, Tulsa could create a much better argument for a higher level of play than that offered by Oral Roberts, and, as such, start to corner the market on eastern Oklahoma basketball fans.

Despite a tiny enrollment, Tulsa has exactly the right mix of mid-sized city and lack of competition for media and fan attention to be a strong draw at the AQ level. They aren't fighting an NFL team or a local AQ college team for the attention and ticket dollars of Tulsa fans. 

Tulsa has had seasons in which they have averaged more than 24,000 in football and 7700 in basketball. Moving up to the AQ level would to give them added credibility in that mid-sized city that would probably present itself at the ticket gate. 

For the Big East, a conference that needs on-the-field and academic credibility, Tulsa could be a great fit.

5. Memphis Tigers

Current conference: Conference USA
 

Prestige
US News ranking: bottom quarter (among National Universities)
State flagship: No
Annual research dollars (in Millions): ?
Endowment (in Millions): $183
 

Enrollment
Enrollment sufficient? Yes
Enrollment: ~23,000 students
 

TV Argument
Native designated market area: (47) Memphis
Additional media relevance claims: N/A

Football
Stadium capacity: 62,380
2010 average attendance: 23,918
NFL competition for ticket sales: No

Basketball
Arena capacity: 18,119
2011 average attendance: 16,768
NBA competition for ticket sales: Yes

Optimal AQ Home
Optimal conference: The Big East
Projected FB attendance there: ~28,000 to start, 40,000+ if they are any good.
Projected BB attendance there: ~17,000 to start.

Like CUSA partner UAB, Memphis is in the sweet spot of having a great ownership claim to a city with enough fans to fill large stadiums and arenas—plus enough TV households to be media relevant to an AQ conference—while being too small for NFL competition for ticket dollars.

Even though the Tigers have NBA competition, the city is in such a basketball hotbed that the university continues to average over 16,000 fans a game on a fairly regular basis. That would only continue in a conference like the Big East.

In football, Memphis fans turn out when the team is competitive. They averaged over 38,000 for two years running earlier this decade in Conference USA. An AQ Big East all-sports share would give Memphis another $8 million a year to hire a name-brand recruiter and proven winner to run and sell the program, to upgrade facilities and to generally right the ship in football.

How does a high-dollar coach with area credibility like Mike Leach or Tommy Bowden sound heading a program with those assets? An AQ check would make that possible in short order.

Athletically, Memphis would be a great-looking asset to an AQ conference. Sadly, there are some downsides to Memphis's candidacy.

Memphis is not likely to be a positive to a conference in BCS measurables, so that would probably discourage an all-sports invite until the current evaluation period is over in 2014.

Secondly, like ECU, their academics are not AQ-caliber. For a conference like the Big East, that credibility hit could also be a problem today.

Should the BCS automatic qualifier status be removed from all conferences, Memphis could become a better Big East candidate overnight.

Rice Owls

Current conference: Conference USA
 

Prestige
US News ranking: 17 (among National Universities)
State flagship: N/A
Annual research dollars (in millions): $174
Endowment (in millions): $3600
 

Enrollment
Enrollment sufficient? Conference dependent.
Enrollment: 5760 students
 

TV Argument
Native designated market area: (10) Houston
Additional media relevance claims: N/A
 

Football
Stadium capacity: 47,000
2010 average attendance: 25,571*
NFL competition for ticket sales: Yes
 

Basketball
Arena capacity: 5208
2011 average attendance: 1838
NBA competition for ticket sales: Yes
 

Optimal AQ Home
Optimal conference: The Big 12
Projected FB attendance there: ~33,000-40,000
Projected BB attendance there: 3600+

Rice could be a competent candidate for Big 12 inclusion...or they could be a candidate to drop football entirely due to a lack of support. That's the funny thing about Rice.

Rice boosters want to maintain their FBS team regardless of their bad fundamentals for attendance.

Today, Rice has a pretty good hand in realignment terms. With Texas A&M leaving for the SEC, the rich Houston and East Texas recruiting grounds have become SEC territory. That hurts UT and the rest of the Big 12. If UT and OU lose some talent to the SEC, where does that leave the conference's ability to sell their football media rights?

Additionally, with Missouri also jumping ship to the SEC (to be replaced with West Virginia) and with Nebraska and Colorado also out of the Big 12, there is a very, very compelling argument that the Big 12 is now a far inferior academic conference than the SEC.

This is a prestige black eye that will have UT and OU constantly on the hunt for a better deal from one of the better academic conferences (Pac-12, Big 10 or ACC) if not righted.

In terms of long-term stability, an academic and recruiting-driven expansion of the Big 12 by adding Rice and Tulane could make a lot of sense for the other members of the conference.

Rice has an enrollment of under 6000 and only has about 44,000 living alumni total. They play both revenue sports, football and basketball, only a few miles away from the pro teams (the NFL Texans and NBA Rockets). That kills the Owls' ability to sell tickets. Looking at the Owls from that perspective suggests they should not even be playing FBS ball.

But playing UT and a Big 12 schedule would fix a lot of these ills.

Rice's 47,000 seat stadium is too large for CUSA play, but is perfect for hosting everyone but UT in the Big 12. (UT/Rice could be held at the Texans' Reliant Stadium every other year. UT could play the future Big East member Houston Cougars at Reliant in off years, guaranteeing UT an away game in Reliant to sell to Houston recruits each year.)

In practical terms, this is a very smart play for UT. With A&M in the SEC, what the Big 12 cannot afford is western SEC schools packing Houston's and Rice's out-of-conference schedules to maximize those SEC schools' recruiting in Houston and East Texas.

Houston and Rice are Key to SEC and Big 12 Recruiting

A good solution would be to give Rice and Houston a compelling reason not to schedule SEC schools. With Houston, the logic is obvious. Offer a Big 12 OOC package that includes annual UT, Texas Tech and Rice games and an alternating Baylor/OU/OSU game. The logic is fairly straightforward.

In practical terms, the Big 12 passing on Houston was mostly due to the academic deficiencies of UH as an AQ candidate. (It isn't shameful. The SEC likewise passed on both Houston schools, as they cannot draw SEC sized crowds.)

As much as Houston is improving academically, the Big 12 was not going to add an academic knuckledragger unless they had the total athletic package (like West Virginia).

With the Mountaineers on board, the Big 12 academic profile vs. other AQ conferences is weaker still, further hurting Houston's case. That does not mean there are not compelling reasons for an affiliation with the Cougars.

Houston and Rice stand to lose the most if the SEC and Big 12 pick clean Houston and East Texas of top recruits. Packing Houston's schedule with old Southwest Conference teams their fans want to see anyway and who already recruit the area would help freeze out SEC recruiting incursions and would marginalize A&M.

It is a win-win-win solution for Houston, Rice and the Big 12 that just makes sense.

Houston is not likely to emerge as an annual national title contender in the Big East any more than Texas Tech is likely to do so in the Big 12.

The No. 1 school Houston wants to play is UT—not A&M. There is nothing Houston would lose playing powerful schools UT and Tech annually and OU occasionally. In fact, the strength-of-schedule bump would probably be a net positive if Houston should happen to put together a title-caliber team.

Rice, on the other hand, has more to offer the Big 12 that the conference needs, so adding them could make more sense. With Big 12 fan bases filling Rice Stadium, Rice's attendance numbers could easily resemble Baylor's—a tolerable level.

The presence of Rice in a conference with UT and Tech would push Houston media coverage towards the Big 12, helping recruiting. A&M already plays an alternate annual site game with Arkansas in Dallas, so I don't think they would be able to play one in Reliant.

Adding Rice would essentially corner the market on Houston metro game locations. To look like a respectable add, Rice could play a softer OOC schedule against likely good draws from lower-level conferences like UNT, Tulsa, Texas State, UTSA, Houston and maybe even Lamar, if they ever get an FBS invite.

While SEC fans would mock the addition of Rice and Tulane to the Big 12, it would instantly push the Big 12 back up into the elite conferences by balancing their already strong athletics with top academics.

It would also hurt recruiting in the SEC West while helping recruiting in the Big 12. As conference academic esteem seems to be a powerful lure for UT and OU, It could be a very smart play for the survival of the Big 12.

New Mexico Lobos

Current conference: Mountain West Conference
 

Prestige
US News ranking: 181 (among National Universities)
State flagship: Yes
Annual research dollars (in millions): $197
Endowment (in millions): $279

Enrollment
Enrollment sufficient? Yes
Enrollment: 34,674 students
 

TV Argument
Native designated market area: (44) Albuquerque
Additional media relevance claims: (98) El Paso (Las Cruces)
 

Football
Stadium capacity: 40,094*
2010 average attendance: 20,888
NFL competition for ticket sales: No
 

Basketball
Arena capacity: 17,126
2011 average attendance: 14,570
NBA competition for ticket sales: No
 

Optimal AQ Home
Optimal conference: The Pac 12, The Big 12 or The Big East
Projected FB attendance there: ~23,000 to start.
Projected BB attendance there: ~6000 to start.

I see UNM as very much like Memphis, but with some better attributes.

Like the Tigers, UNM owns a nice market in Albuquerque that is just a bit too small for NFL or NBA competition. They are the main show in town.

Unlike Memphis, they are clearly the state flagship in New Mexico, they have a much larger enrollment and they do a fair amount of research. Research matters to the elite of the Pac-12. That added prestige probably has the Lobos legitimately on the Pac-12's list of second choices if the Pac-12 suffers a final defeat in the competition for UT in the future.

As a school with undisputed statewide support, UNM is TV relevant in not only the Albuquerque DMA, but also the El Paso DMA that covers some of the southern part of the state. If that was a single market, the resulting DMA would rank two spots ahead of the Kansas City DMA, an NFL market.

New Mexico is a consistent loser in football because, as the easternmost member of the western-facing MWC, they have been consistently unable to supplement their New Mexico recruiting with enough talent from neighboring talent-rich Texas.

The one time they really fielded a good team in the last decade, they averaged over 38,000 per game in 2005. That says the fans are there if the team can become reasonably competitive. Their basketball turnout also supports this, as it is also very strong. They are usually in the top 20 of the 340 Division I teams in attendance, consistently averaging over 14,000 in basketball.

If the Pac-12 were to add UNM, in prestige terms, the Lobos would be like a lesser mix of Arizona State and Oregon State. While their research is promising, their undergraduate academics would rank far behind those of Pac-12 schools.

UNM and the state of New Mexico would likely have to take action to better their case for inclusion. In the Pac-12, their football would likely remain poor, although their attendance would certainly improve. On the positive side, they could become a peer and rival to Arizona in basketball in the PAC.

The Big East is an ever better potential home for UNM.

Games in Texas talent hotbeds Dallas (SMU) and Houston (UH) would allow UNM to dramatically improve their depth of talent in both revenue sports. The Big East will have teams with far less depth than the PAC-12, so UNM may be able to become an annual bowl team in the Big East. UNM basketball—a regular participant in the NCAA tourney—would obviously fit right in to the Big East.

The best slot for UNM, however, would be to join the Big 12. Being in a conference with Texas Tech, UT, Baylor, TCU, OSU and OU would pull the doors open wide for UNM to recruit Texas. It is easy to imagine UNM as a consistent bowl team in a new Big 12 south division.

A proven entity like the Lobos' basketball program in a conference Texans embrace could easily pull in the big men (from talent hotbed Dallas/Fort Worth) that are lacking from most teams like UNM in non-AQ conferences.

With that missing component, UNM could make the jump to being a regular national power in short order.

Sadly, their relatively poor overall undergraduate academic reputation (as evidenced by their ranking in US News) makes them an unlikely candidate for the now academically-challenged Big 12.

The Big East would also likely pass due to that and the fact the eastern conference is hungry for schools with good BCS measurables in the 2010-2013 evaluation period. UNM cannot even recruit well in football as a member of the MWC, so they won't win in football and aren't likely even a Big East candidate today.

Maybe in 2014. Or if the AQ status is revoked.

Colorado State Rams

Current conference: Mountain West Conference

Prestige
US News ranking: 128 (among National Universities)
State flagship: No
Annual research dollars (in millions): $295
Endowment (in millions): $398

Enrollment
Enrollment sufficient? Yes
Enrollment: 24,875 students

TV argument
Native designated market area: (18) Denver
Additional media relevance claims: N/A

Football
Stadium capacity: 34,400
2010 average attendance: 22,400
NFL competition for ticket sales: No
 

Basketball
Arena capacity: 8745
2011 average attendance: 4879
NBA competition for ticket sales: No
 

Optimal AQ Home
Optimal conference: The Big 12 and The Pac-12
Projected FB attendance there: ~29,000 to start; but ~35,000-plus to start if they build a new on-campus stadium.
Projected BB attendance there: ~6000 to start.

I think fans underappreciate Colorado State as an AQ candidate.

The Rams are probably hurt most by BYU and the Big 12 being unable to reach acceptable terms.

A pairing of Colorado State and BYU could do a lot to help the TV troubles of the Big 12. BYU fans dominate Utah and nearby areas in the surrounding states (the "Desert" region) and offer a bit of a national following.

Colorado State is located at nearly the geographic center of the Denver DMA. Unlike the University of Colorado, whose graduates tend to move out of the DMA, heading westward in fairly large numbers into Pac-12 territory, it seems likely that grads from the more rurally located Colorado State would tend to either settle in the many towns in the Denver DMA or move to big city Denver. Their viewership in the Denver DMA could prove fairly strong in a better conference.

With BYU and Colorado State, it is likely the Big 12 could have very strong pull in both states adding almost eight million residents to the conference's tiny population footprint.

Both BYU and Colorado State have AQ level academics. Colorado State is firmly a peer to mid-range BCS members academically, with similar rankings in US News and other university rankings. Additionally, their level of research is quite respectable for the AQ ranks.

Their enrollment is over 24,000, which compares well to Big 12 schools Kansas State and Oklahoma State. There is no pro competition within an hour's drive. Their county has a population of 276,000 people. While there are, of course, great outdoor entertainment options for residents, Colorado State sports should be the best live entertainment option in the area. All of the elements are there for CSU sports to draw well, but they underperform.

So why doesn't CSU get any love?

I think mostly it is their 42-year-old stadium.

Hughes Stadium is four miles west of campus, located just out of town. I think it has been holding back CSU's program since it was built and is killing their case for AQ inclusion today. It is a decent stadium for a conference like the MWC, where all schools have issues, but it prevents CSU from making the added money to create dominant programs in the revenue sports that AQ conferences would desire.

Almost no AQ schools have stadiums any further than two miles from campus, and the vast majority actually have them on campus in order to build attendance off their student enrollment. There is a reason most schools do it this way.

It works.

CSU used to play football on campus at Colorado Field (now the location of their track and field facilities). If CSU had a 50,000-seat stadium located on campus near parking, where their practice field is located, they would likely see a dramatic increase in attendance—which would make them a much stronger AQ candidate.

What if they built such a new on-campus stadium?

In the Big 12, CSU would be receiving an additional $12-16 million annual TV check. Even if CSU earmarked a million for an increase in their basketball head coaching budget (perhaps allowing the future pursuit of a ringer with area skins—a Rick Majerus or an NBA guy maybe?), they would still likely have $11 million a year to pay off a new stadium.

In five years CSU could likely pay off at least half of the cost just out of that TV revenue increase.

CSU could afford to just give the old stadium to the city for high school games.

CSU averaged over 29,000 for two years running earlier this decade. They clearly can do better with a winning product, but their stadium will keep them in the non-AQ ranks if not addressed.

Being able to add strong viewership in the Denver and Salt Lake DMAs via these two schools could be very compelling to the Big 12 if CSU had a stadium that supported strong draws. CSU could bridge BYU to the northern schools.

Both schools' strong academics could also be quite appealing.

CSU's academics, research and enrollment, as well as Colorado's inclusion in the Pac-12 could also have CSU on the list of fallback schools if the Pac-12 loses out on Texas. The Pac-12 does have a number of pairs of schools from states, so the admission of CSU would not necessarily be immediately rejected. 

After all, if the other top AQ conferences go to 16 and the Pac-12 misses out on UT, value for the last few spots in the PAC could boil down to prestige.

UNLV Rebels

Current conference: Mountain West Conference
 

Prestige
US News ranking: bottom quarter (among National Universities)
State flagship: No
Annual research dollars (in millions): $50
Endowment (in millions): $114
 

Enrollment
Enrollment sufficient? Yes
Enrollment: 29,069 students
 

TV argument
Native designated market area: (43) Las Vegas
Additional media relevance claims: N/A
 

Football
Stadium capacity: 36,800
2010 average attendance: 20,612
NFL competition for ticket sales: No
 

Basketball
Arena capacity: 18,776
2011 average attendance: 13,253
NBA competition for ticket sales: No

Optimal AQ Home
Optimal Conference: The Big East and The Big 12
Projected FB attendance there: ~29,000 to start.
Projected BB attendance there: ~14,000 to start.

Las Vegas is a nice-sized market with no pro teams. UNLV is a university with a rather large enrollment. Add to that the fact that, as a gambling-based community, Las Vegas has an inordinately high number of sports fans.

You can see why UNLV should be on this list.

Vegas has been one of the fastest-growing areas in the US for quite a while now, but the seamy underside of Vegas scares the NFL and the NBA.

Who will those fans support? Logic says UNLV. 

UNLV's attendance has been slowly trending upwards in general for the last 20 years as the city has continued to build up. They averaged over 29,000 in 2007.

Las Vegas sports fans think like NFL fans. They don't like small-time sports. The bigger the platform, the more likely Vegas sports fans are to attend. A school like UT or OU could draw huge crowds in Vegas.  With no NFL competition, there is no attendance cap on what UNLV football could build up to in an AQ conference.

No conference wants to deal with the shady side of Las Vegas, but there is no escaping the very apparent value UNLV can offer.

Academically, they are about as likely to ever score a Pac-12 invite as Boise State (never).

The Big East is interesting, though. The Big East has offered Boise State a football-only membership and is considering BYU and, apparently, San Diego State.

BYU and San Diego State have great basketball programs. If the Big East should at some point decide they need BYU and SDSU basketball (perhaps to replace a Louisville loss to the Big 12) to help lift their bubble teams into the tourney, you could see schools like UNLV and UNM emerge as candidates for a western basketball division due to their basketball reputations and strong fan support.

Today, the Big 12 would likely also pass, for academic and geographic reasons. In the future, should the Big 12 feel a need to embrace a western push in moving to a 16-team mega conference, UNLV could be a smart bridge to appealing California candidates.

San Diego State Aztecs

Current conference: Mountain West Conference
 

Prestige
US News ranking: 164 (among National Universities)
State flagship: No
Annual research dollars (in millions): $70
Endowment (in millions): $109
 

Enrollment
Enrollment sufficient? Yes
Enrollment: 33,790 students
 

TV Argument
Native designated market area: (27) San Diego
Additional media relevance claims: N/A

Football
Stadium capacity: 71,400
2010 average attendance: 34,133
NFL competition for ticket sales: No

Basketball
Arena capacity: 12,414
2011 average attendance: 11,668
NBA competition for ticket sales: No

Optimal AQ Home
Optimal conference: The Big East and Big 12
Projected FB attendance there: ~35,000 to start.
Projected BB attendance there: ~13,000 to start.

San Diego State has had problems maintaining its brief moments of football success. After I started writing this report, I read that SDSU has been actively reaching out to the Big East. That is smart for them, as non-AQ conferences like the MWC are just not that highly regarded in NFL sized DMAs—especially those with native NFL teams in their local cities.

In an AQ conference, SDSU would be far more likely to maintain high-level recruiting.

San Diego—really all of southern California—is a recruiting hotbed. There are only three FBS schools in Southern California, an area with a population of 22 million. There is a ton of surplus talent kicking around. SDSU should be as dominant in football as they are in basketball, but they are simply overshadowed by the Pac-12 and have been isolated in a conference Californians don't really notice.

SDSU would be the lowest ranked academic school in the Pac-12, and they only do $70 million in annual research, so there is no way any of the four California schools will ever willingly vote for SDSU's inclusion in the Pac-12.

But all is not lost for SDSU.

There is a lot of talk that the Chargers are the odds-on favorite to move northward into the proposed "Los Angeles Football Stadium." If the Chargers leave, suddenly SDSU would be well-positioned to inherit most of their local support and become the hottest name in the non-AQ ranks.

If such a thing were to occur, the Big 12 could become much more motivated to pursue western expansion to California. Considering the market, the recruiting opportunity it would open for the Big 12 member schools and SDSU's basketball dominance, SDSU could easily receive an all-sports invite from the Big 12 if the Chargers left.

Today, the only avenue likely available to SDSU is the Big East as a non-football member.

Aztec basketball is so dominant that SDSU can afford to pursue a football-only membership in the Big East.

Every non-AQ conference in the Western US would love to add SDSU olympic sports; playing the Aztecs in basketball would not only add a lot of media value to that conference's TV deal—it would also raise that conference's strength-of-schedule, potentially turning a conference mate's NIT invitation into an NCAA tournament at-large bid.

Additionally, there is the very real potential that if Louisville was lost, the Big East might consider adding Memphis and western basketball powers like BYU and SDSU (with complementary members like UNM, UNLV, St. Louis and Tulsa) for a western basketball/all-sports division to keep the strength at the top of their basketball conference that allows them to secure so many bids.

Today, it looks like San Diego State may finally be about to cash in on their potential.

Fresno State Bulldogs

Current conference: Mountain West Conference
 

Prestige
US News rankings: 37 (in the less prestigeous Western Regional Universities category)
State flagship: No
Annual research dollars (in millions): $8
Endowment (in millions): $91
 

Enrollment
Enrollment sufficient? Yes
Enrollment: 25,613 students
 

TV argument
Native designated market area: (55) Fresno
Additional media relevance claims: (20) Sacramento*
 

Football
Stadium capacity: 41,031
2010 average attendance: 34,120
NFL competition for ticket sales: No
 

Basketball
Arena capacity: 15,544
2011 average attendance: 7332
NBA competition for ticket sales: No

Optimal AQ Home
Optimal conference: The Big 12
Projected FB attendance there: ~35,000 to start.
Projected BB attendance there: ~8000 to start.

Like San Diego State, Fresno has no shot of ever earning the willing approval of the four California universities in the Pac-12. Fresno State just is not the type and caliber of academic and research-driven candidate the Pac-12 considers. These factors are important to those four Pac-12 schools, and that isn't really the kind of university Fresno is designed to be.

I also cannot see the Big East having much interest in Fresno, despite Fresno State's compelling arguments on paper.

And Fresno does have many. They dominate their native DMA, which is of reasonable size for an AQ school. They are the only inland California FBS school and, as such, have noteworthy support stretching from the northern tip of the inland empire to the the Sacramento DMA.

They have a good football program that is well supported and a respectable basketball program on the court and in the stands.

To me, the best avenue for Fresno State getting into the AQ ranks emerges if the Chargers leave San Diego for LA. Partnering San Diego State and Fresno State as western members of the Big 12 would be a great move for that conference. It would open the door for Big 12 recruiting in San Diego and up and down the inland corridor in California.

Both schools are members of the Cal State system. Both candidates—and the other members of the Cal State system—feel unfairly dismissed by the Pac-12.

The Pac-12 passing and the Big 12 adding them could underscore this feeling. This could really split the state on many levels, opening a lot of doors to Big 12 recruiters. That would more than make it worthwhile to the Big 12.

In this kind of scenario, you might see SDSU drawing 60,000-plus and Fresno selling out their stadium against teams like BYU, SDSU, UT and OU.

Hawaii (formerly Rainbow) Warriors

Current conference: Mountain West Conference
 

Prestige
US News ranking: 164 (among National Universities)
State flagship: Yes
Annual research dollars (in millions): $272
Endowment (in millions): $159
 

Enrollment
Enrollment sufficient? Yes
Enrollment: 20,135 students
 

TV Argument
Native designated market area: (73) Honolulu
Additional media relevance claims: (43) Las Vegas; (110) Reno
 

Football
Stadium capacity: 50,000
2010 average attendance: 37,311
NFL competition for ticket sales: No
 

Basketball
Arena capacity: 10,300
2011 average attendance: 6083
NBA competition for ticket sales: No

Optimal AQ Home
Optimal conference: The Pac-12
Projected FB attendance there: ~43,000 to start.
Projected BB attendance there: ~8000 to start.

The University of Hawaii would be the lowest-ranked academic school in the Pac-12 by quite a bit, but I still think they could very well be one of the most highly considered candidates for Pac-12 inclusion that does not go by "UT" or "OU."

Hawaii is a state flagship. 

The leaders of the Pac-12 do a ton of research and have developed a culture of co-operative research between member schools.

UH does a ton of research. The islands have very apparent attributes that could allow Hawaii to secure more research dollars (close ties to Japan, wildlife, volcanic activity, oceanography, wind and solar research, etc.) in co-operation with Pac-12 member schools. That could put additional tens to hundreds of millions in research dollars in the hands of Pac-12 members.

The Pac-12 has a stated goal of marketing their brands in Asia to create new revenue streams. Hawaii is the US's gateway to Asia. The Islands are deeply financially intertwined, especially with Japan. The Warriors actually have a TV deal that puts some of their sports content on Japanese TV.

Hawaii fans see UH as a deserving Pac-12 member. Turnout among the locals is always noticeably higher vs. Pac-12 members.

Hawaii is west of the Pac-12.  That could be helpful, as all current PAC schools want California schools in their division and all other candidates are in the east.

Hawaii is a "cultural fit" for the more liberal-minded Pac-12. There are noteworthy numbers of Hawaiians in western cities all the way out to Utah.

Hawaii is strong in football and some of the non-revenue sports (women's volleyball, for example) that western conferences like the Pac-12 value. Excellence in those sports could be helpful providing welcome content for the Pac-12's TV networks.

Hawaii is a dramatically underfunded program and they are still pretty successful. Adding another $18-plus million annually to Hawaii's athletic budget could take UH's facilities from some of the worst in the west to some of the best. That could mean much more talent on the Hawaii teams.

UH in the Pac-12 would likely mean that struggling Pac-12 schools like Washington State would be able to promise on-the-fence recruits two trips to Hawaii during their collegiate days, helping the bottom of the conference.

Hawaii is two hours behind Pacific time, creating natural live late-night TV content for Pac-12 networks.

Finally, while Hawaii's native media market is not that impressive, Hawaii has a media edge via the tourism industry. Hawaii's economy has long been based on tourism. Hotels in Asia and the west have long turned to Hawaiian employees for management and employee assistance. There are large Hawaiian populations in Las Vegas and Reno, leading those cities to be referred to by Hawaiians as part of the island chain. As of 2002, per Wikipedia there were almost 80,000 former Island residents living in Las Vegas alone.

Neither UNLV nor Nevada-Reno have the academic and research resumes for Pac-12 inclusion, so Nevada is kind of a hole in the Pac-12 footprint. Adding Hawaii's Nevada-based fans to the Pac-12 alumni living in Nevada could noticeably help the TV numbers out there.

When you look at which candidates "add value" to the Pac-12, UH would do so in a number of areas that could and do matter to the Pac-12 membership.

The List Goes On...

Finally, a couple disclaimers.

While every school on the list is potentially part of the MWC/CUSA proposed football mega-conference, this should in no way, shape or form be taken as "proof" that the result of the proposed merger will yield an AQ-caliber conference. 

It will not. 

Every one of these schools would be better able to tap their potential with a slice of a fat AQ conference TV contract. I do not believe the merged MWC/CUSA will yield the TV "seed money" required any more than their current associations do for these universities.

Additionally, there were other schools that were left off this list—like S. Miss and Marshall for the Big East and UTEP for the Big 12—for a variety of reasons, usually including academics and either metro or media market reasons, that would make them poor candidates for moving up. 

S. Miss, for example, might be very competitive in the Big East with a Big East check, but they also might not offer enough media value to the conference to pay for that Big East share.

Additionally, there are schools with great academic and media arguments who don't project as well as AQ member schools today like Buffalo, Ohio, Miami (Oxford) and others.

That said, with West Virginia out, one can easily imagine a scenario a few years from now where the Big East might take an interest in a school like Ohio or Marshall...or even a school like UMASS, James Madison or Delaware...but would those schools really be significantly better in the Big East in three to four years?

I hope you enjoyed this report and I look forward to your responses.