Michigan State's Javon Ringer and Georgia's Knowshon Moreno are both finalists for the Doak Walker "best college running back" award. So, with some excitement about two of the game's biggest running threats set to play one another in the Capital One Bowl on Jan. 1, what is the big statistic that tells you the most about this game?
How about this: Georgia's rushing offense is ranked just 54th in the nation, and Michigan State's is 66th. Both players are the main ball carriers on teams that—statistically speaking—have rather mediocre running attacks. Appearances and statistics, it seems, are deceiving.
The real big difference between these teams is trajectory. Georgia is coming off of a very strong 2007 and a BCS bowl win, returned 17 starters from last year, and was ranked the preseason No. 1 in both major polls.
The debated expectations for Georgia at the start of the season centered on whether Florida had a chance to upend their chase to the SEC title, not whether in-state rival Georgia Tech (preseason No. 50 in the Coaches' poll) would be the team to hand them their third loss on the regular season's final weekend.
By contrast, Michigan State owns three losses that every sane person would have predicted, a couple of wins that are more than pleasant surprises, and not a single unexpected loss.
A reasonable regular season for Michigan State, given last year's graduations and a tougher schedule, would have been another 7-5 mark followed by another mediocre pre-January bowl appearance. Even adjusting for the (entirely expected) season-ending blowout by Penn State, nine wins is evidence of a team playing well above expectations.
The Spartans lost big to their conference powerhouses (Penn State and Ohio State), and Georgia lost big to theirs (Florida and Alabama.) Both teams played and lost to one decent out-of-conference opponent (Georgia Tech for Georgia and Cal for MSU.) Each finished as the third-best team in their conference.
Other numbers show the trend of two teams arriving in the same place from different directions. Georgia finishes the regular season ranked 21st in the nation for total offense and 28th for total defense, while the Spartans are respectively 66th and 62nd.
The component parts that make up those big numbers tell the same story. One team doesn't look good on paper but manages to win games it should not. The other looks like it should be world-beaters, yet found ways to lose a game or two that it should have won.
Georgia is not a threat like Penn State or Ohio State. More like Iowa earlier this year, another team with a very good running back, this sets up as a game where Michigan State has a chance to beat what is probably a better group of players because they perform better as a team than the other guys do.
The Spartans are thrilled to be in Orlando on New Year's Day. Getting there shows that they can attain their goals and that they still have yet one more chance to exceed expectations.
For Georgia, Orlando is evidence that they failed to capitalize on nearly all of their preseason goals. However much the Bulldogs may say to the contrary, winning the Capital One Bowl will not mean nearly as much to them as it does to the guys on the other side of the field.
Leaving aside the stats, this is probably what decides the game.
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