Having recently passed the midway point of Pac-10 play, it's time to look at the NCAA Tournament chances for each team in the nation’s toughest conference.
There are no easy games in-league, as we saw Sunday, when the ninth-place Huskies took out the mighty UCLA Bruins.
The conference has never put seven teams in the tournament, but if there were ever a year, this is it.
It is certainly debatable, but a 9-9 record with a win in the conference tournament should get you in the Big Dance.
Generally, .500 records are bad news, but in the Pac-10 it holds more weight because they play a true round-robin, unlike the Big-Ten, SEC, Big XII, or ACC.
So with 9-9 as the baseline, lets breakdown the chances of the Pac-9, since it will take a fairly significant upset for the Oregon State Beavers to not go 0-18.
UCLA 21-3 (9-2)
Remaining schedule:
Home—Oregon State, Oregon, Stanford, Cal
Road—USC, Arizona State, Arizona
One of the best teams in the nation.
Kevin Love is a dominant big man and Darren Collison is the best point guard in the league.
At this point, the Bruins are playing for seeding in the Big Dance and a conference title.
They would love to be the #1 seed out west as they would greatly benefit from a Anaheim, Phoenix path to the Final Four.
Odds on Dancing—100 percent
STANFORD 20-3 (9-2)
Remaining schedule:
Home—Cal, Washington, Washington State
Road—USC, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona
Very solid inside with the Lopez twins, Lawrence Hill, and Taj Finger.
They need to get more out of their guards, especially at the point, where Mitch Johnson seems over matched in most every game.
Not likely to take the title from the Bruins, but there is a clear gap between the Cardinals and the mess of teams vying for 3rd through 7th .
Odds on Dancing: 100 percent
ARIZONA 15-8 (5-5)
Remaining schedule:
Home—Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA
Road—Washington, Washington State, Oregon State, Oregon
Possibly the most dangerous team in the country not in the Top 25 right now.
They are a completely different team with Bayless healthy, and his absence was a big reason for their losses at home to Oregon and at Arizona State.
The schedule sets up nicely for them as they have the two “easiest” road trips left.
Solid out of conference work as well with wins over Texas A&M and @ Houston.
Despite a somewhat shocking loss today to ASU at home they are still in pretty good shape to earn a bid.
Odds on Dancing: 75 percent
WASHINGTON STATE 18-5 (6-5)
Remaining schedule:
Home—Arizona State, Arizona, Washington
Road—Oregon State, Oregon, Cal, Stanford
The Cougs got a win they needed against USC, but still are not a lock for the tourney.
At 6-5 with likely upcoming wins over Oregon State and Washington, they would still need to win two of the other five to feel really safe.
9 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
John McClory about 1 year ago
As the brackets stand right now, I actually like UCLA and Stanford to be Final Four teams. UCLA is the obvious choice and a popular pre-season pick to win it all. Stanford has a nice 1-2 punch with the Lopez brothers and they seem to be flying under the radar in a stacked pac-10
I was totally sold on WSU as a Final Four team about a month ago, but their recent struggles have me thinking twice. They do have the talent and depth to pull it off, however.
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Lew Wright about 1 year ago
Sorry, but your assessment of USC being more likely that WSU to make it into the tournament is just silly. That would suggest the Trojans are a better team, again, a silly assertion. USC will be getting better and better with each PAC-10 game and PAC-10 tournament experience, but they still have a way to go before it could be seriously suggested they are better than the Cougars. Suggesting that Arizona is more likely than the Cougs to make it to the tournament is a much easier sell. It's wrong, but at least there is ammunition to debate with. Despite their hiccup in Seattle, the Bruins are a good bet to win it all. Stanford should make it to the Elite Eight. There's a couple of things we can agree on! GO COUGS!!!
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Lew Wright about 1 year ago
Almost forgot. Great article Kyle! GO COUGS!!!
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
Your percentages are rediculously low.Arizona has a top ten rpi, they are at least 90%. Washington State is at least 95%, they went undefeated in the non-conf. USC is at least 75% and Oregon is 60% minimum. ASU and Cal are higher than 25. The Pac Ten is all but guaranteed 6 spots, very good chance for 7 depending on how the end shakes out.
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Michael Esmay about 1 year ago
But WSU non conference consisted of 2 good teams. The rest were played against absolute nobodies. So to say that there non conference is a plus is not that great of an argument mr. anonymous. I do agree that they are a lock unless they just implode from here on out.
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Kyle Rekofke about 1 year ago
In response to Lew: My saying that the Trojans have a slightly better chance to get to the tournament than the Cougs, does not mean I think they are necessarily a better team. As I pointed out the Trojans have five of their last seven games at home that is a huge advantage in a conference where the talent gap between teams is minimal. The Cougs still have to play at Oregon who swept them last year and took them to the wire in Pullman a few weeks ago. The Cougs still have to go to the Bay Area as well, and play the schools that swept them at home.
Basically what I am saying is that the teams are fairly similar positions both six and five. Obviously it is hard to argue SC is better than the Cougs when the Cougs beat them twice, but that is not what I am trying to do. I am only projecting the chances of the respective teams based on what they have done and what their upcoming schedule looks like.
In my opinion USC's schedule and talent makes it ever so slightly easier for them to make the tournament. I can defineltely see your side of it though too.
When it is all said and done I think both will get in just fine
Ducks-Cougs should be a good game in Eugene this weekend
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Tori Willis about 1 year ago
It's comforting to see that you have such high hopes for Arizona-- I walked out of the game yesterday with 7 minutes left because I couldn't watch the Sun Devils continuously dunk over the Wildcats.
Do you really think ASU is going to make it in? I certainly hope not- they haven't had a bid since '75 (give or take a few years) and I want it to stay that way. Biased? COMPLETELY :)
But whatever, having 8 or 9 times from the conference certainly shows the rest of the nation how good the west coast is.. something that's been known on this side of town for years. I just hope the teams don't eat it the first round (this doesn't apply to UCLA since they're Elite 8 for sure)
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Kyle Rekofke about 1 year ago
Tori: I do not think that ASU will make it in. I was ready to write them off until they beat your Wildcats again.
It is great for the conference to have so many teams with a chance. I reakky like Arizona, I think Bayless is awesome.
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Goodword Goodrich about 1 year ago
Never question the Ky Ming!!!!
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