Florida and Texas Lead the Way in a Complete Breakdown of the OCGR

Florida and Texas claimed the top two spots of the final regular season version of the Official Championship Game Ratings (OCGR).  Oklahoma was left at No. 3 despite winning the Big XII Championship.  However, if the Big XII used the OCGR instead of the BCS formula, Texas would have played Missouri.

(Ratings as of Dec. 7 (End of Regular Season)

Rank	Team	Record	Cur. OCGR	'09 OCGR	PvWk
1	Florida	12-1	79.62	80.18	1
2	Texas	11-1	76.22	76.04	2
3	Oklahoma	12-1	73.03	72.95	3
4	Penn State	11-1	67.26	68.44	5
5	Utah	12-0	67.46	68.25	6
6	USC	11-1	64.64	65.99	4
7	Alabama	12-1	61.25	62.75	7
8	Boise State	12-0	61.62	62.59	8
9	TCU	10-2	58.69	60.17	9
10	Ohio State	10-2	58.49	59.53	10
11	Texas Tech	11-1	59.03	58.77	11
12	Cincinnati	11-2	51.7	52.27	12
13	Ball State	12-0	45.77	46.17	13
14	Virginia Tech	9-4	44.34	44.92	NR
15	East Carolina	9-4	34.49	34.93	NR

(Dropped from ratings: None)

For the first time, here is the breakdown of the OCGR.  The teams that qualify for the OCGR must meet at least one of the following criteria:

• Undefeated and obtain at least one vote in the Coaches' Poll
• Have at most one loss and be ranked in the Coaches' Top 25
• Have at most two losses and be ranked in the Coaches' Top 15
• Have at most three losses and be ranked in the Coaches' Top 10
• Be ranked in the Coaches' Top 5

If a conference is still not represented, the conference champion will be included if they have at most four losses and at least one vote in the Coaches' Poll (Independents will be treated as a conference under these terms)

The OCGR's main components are Offense, Defense, Special Teams, Strength of Schedule, and Winning Percentage.  The ranges used for the sub-categories except the FG accuracy and Strength of Schedule components are determined by using the 95% Confidence Intervals for the previous five seasons of statistics.  Here are the breakdowns of each of the main components:

Offense

• Pass Yards/Game (15%) - [330.8 - 110.4]
• Rush Yards/Game (15%) - [249.5 - 58]
• Total Yards/Game (25%) - [492.8 - 255.8]
• Scoring/Game (35%) - [40.2 - 12.6]
• Turnovers Lost/Game (10%) - [0.9 - 2.9]

Rank	Team	Pass	Rush	Total	Score	TO Lost	Off. Rating
1	Oklahoma	1.0000	0.7704	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	0.9656
2	Texas	0.8580	0.6210	0.9309	1.0000	0.9083	0.8954
3	Texas Tech	1.0000	0.3181	1.0000	1.0000	0.6583	0.8635
4	Penn State	0.5907	0.8020	0.8286	0.9989	0.9083	0.8565
5	Florida	0.4638	0.8970	0.7873	1.0000	1.0000	0.8509
6	Ball State	0.7091	0.7033	0.8590	0.8703	0.8731	0.8185
7	Boise State	0.8334	0.5466	0.8479	0.9717	0.4500	0.8041
8	USC	0.6201	0.7728	0.8324	0.9022	0.5800	0.7903
9	TCU	0.4130	0.8233	0.6805	0.8116	0.9083	0.7305
10	Utah	0.5736	0.5766	0.6306	0.8993	0.7417	0.7191
11	Alabama	0.2735	0.7230	0.4698	0.6721	0.8346	0.5856
12	Ohio State	0.1710	0.6975	0.3539	0.5641	0.9083	0.5070
13	Cincinnati	0.6519	0.3302	0.5043	0.5330	0.4500	0.5049
14	East Carolina	0.4414	0.3672	0.3384	0.4047	0.4115	0.3887
15	Virginia Tech	0.0809	0.5740	0.1703	0.3489	0.7192	0.3348

Defense

• Pass Yards Allowed/Game (15%) - [151.6 - 285.3]
• Rush Yards Allowed/Game (15%) - [73.4 - 228.5]
• Total Yards Allowed/Game (25%) - [260 - 478.9]
• Scoring Allowed/Game (35%) - [12.7 - 38.6]
• Turnovers Gained/Game (10%) - [2.8 - 1]

Rank	Team	Pass	Rush	Total	Score	TO Lost	Off. Rating
1	USC	1.0000	0.9365	1.0000	1.0000	0.6481	0.9553
2	TCU	0.8892	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	0.6481	0.9482
3	Alabama	0.8019	0.9649	1.0000	0.9884	0.4701	0.9080
4	Florida	0.8325	0.7943	0.9118	0.9942	0.8547	0.9054
5	Penn State	0.8773	0.8548	0.9821	1.0000	0.4630	0.9016
6	Ohio State	0.9048	0.7323	0.9121	0.9853	0.7407	0.8925
7	Boise State	0.7159	0.7968	0.8424	1.0000	0.8796	0.8755
8	Virginia Tech	0.8618	0.7834	0.9220	0.8162	0.7265	0.8356
9	Utah	0.7047	0.7974	0.8359	0.8243	0.7407	0.7969
10	East Carolina	0.6628	0.5830	0.6584	0.6884	0.8120	0.6736
11	Cincinnati	0.5476	0.8027	0.7438	0.7124	0.3419	0.6720
12	Ball State	0.5920	0.5592	0.5984	0.7714	0.4274	0.6350
13	Texas	0.1374	0.9988	0.6349	0.7730	0.1852	0.6182
14	Oklahoma	0.2410	0.7898	0.5474	0.5429	0.8120	0.5627
15	Texas Tech	0.3532	0.6125	0.4903	0.4768	0.6481	0.4991

Special Teams

The Field Goal Kicker Accuracy sub-component is determined by 75% FG percentage made and 25% XP percentage made.  Therefore, it will be 3*FG% made + XP% made.

• FG Kicker Accuracy (35%) - [3.75 - 2.4]
• Net Punting Yards/Punt (25%) - [40.2 - 29.8]
• Kick Return Yards/KR (20%) - [25.5 - 15.9]
• Punt Return Yards/PR (20%) - [15.8 - 3.2]

Rank	Team	FGK Acc	Punt	KR	PR	ST Rating
1	Florida	0.9904	0.7837	0.6177	0.8897	0.8440
2	Penn State	0.8148	0.6798	1.0000	0.5683	0.7688
3	Texas	0.6726	0.9971	0.7604	0.3929	0.7153
4	Utah	0.9778	0.6750	0.7365	0.2643	0.7111
5	Cincinnati	0.5259	1.0000	0.8625	0.4952	0.7056
6	Ohio State	0.7800	0.7712	0.3188	0.7706	0.6837
7	Ball State	0.6007	0.6288	0.7969	0.7635	0.6795
8	TCU	0.6333	0.3779	1.0000	0.6897	0.6541
9	Boise State	0.3644	0.9115	0.6354	0.7405	0.6306
10	Virginia Tech	0.7119	0.3365	0.5167	0.4881	0.5343
11	Alabama	0.4948	0.4644	0.3875	0.7841	0.5236
12	Oklahoma	0.4059	0.3885	0.9656	0.4040	0.5131
13	USC	0.4326	0.2894	1.0000	0.3913	0.5020
14	East Carolina	0.2674	0.7452	0.5479	0.4603	0.4815
15	Texas Tech	0.0978	0.0846	0.6490	0.5778	0.3007

Strength of Schedule

The Strength of Schedule component is split up into three sub-components.  The first one (SOS1) is basically the old BCS SOS formula, except the 2/3-1/3 ratio of opponents' records and opp. opponents' records is replaced by 60%-40%.  The second component uses each opponent's record and the rating of the conference they play in with another 60-40 ratio.  The third component uses the same data, except that home field is added to the conference rating which are replaced by a grouping that separates each rating by 0.015.

• SOS1 (60%) - [0.575 - 0.345]
• SOS2 (20%) - [0.595 - 0.34]
• SOS3 (20%) - [2.55 - -2.8]

Rank	Team	SOS1	SOS2	SOS3	SOS Rating
1	Texas	0.9248	1.0000	0.9813	0.9511
2	Oklahoma	0.8561	0.9729	0.9835	0.9049
3	Florida	0.8287	0.8988	0.9375	0.8645
4	Virginia Tech	0.7443	0.7576	0.8081	0.7597
5	Ohio State	0.7470	0.7396	0.7259	0.7413
6	Texas Tech	0.7096	0.5953	0.7508	0.6950
7	Alabama	0.5983	0.7373	0.6988	0.6462
8	Cincinnati	0.6230	0.6129	0.6499	0.6264
9	TCU	0.5783	0.6353	0.6386	0.6018
10	USC	0.6030	0.6537	0.5452	0.6016
11	Utah	0.5613	0.5965	0.6355	0.5832
12	Penn State	0.5817	0.5651	0.5950	0.5810
13	East Carolina	0.4839	0.5376	0.4083	0.4795
14	Boise State	0.3713	0.4192	0.3053	0.3677
15	Ball State	0.1717	0.2278	0.1294	0.1745

Finally, the OCGR is determined by the following percentages for the four main components:

• Offense (24%)
• Defense (24%)
• Special Teams (12%)
• Strength of Schedule (40%)

Thus, the stats to SOS is 60-40.  The final touch is that once these four percentages are taken into effect, the resulting number is multiplied by the team's winning percentage and by 100.  If there was a tie, here are the following tie-breakers:

1. Head to head (all teams tied must have played each other)
2. Winning percentage
3. Number of wins
4. Use the formula: [Scoring margin * (SOS1 + SOS2)] + SOS3, team with higher result moves on (when dealing with the SOS numbers, use actual, not 0-1 rating figures)
5. Number of votes in the USA Today Top 25
6. Use round robin of 2 out of 3 coin flips, heads going for 1st team in alphabetical order (ex: Miami=Heads, Virginia Tech=Tails)

Rank	Team	Offense	Defense	Sp. Teams	SOS	Win %	OCGR
1	Florida	0.8509	0.9054	0.8440	0.8645	0.9231	80.18
2	Texas	0.8954	0.6182	0.7153	0.9511	0.9167	76.04
3	Oklahoma	0.9656	0.5627	0.5131	0.9049	0.9231	72.95
4	Penn State	0.8565	0.9016	0.7688	0.5810	0.9167	68.44
5	Utah	0.7191	0.7969	0.7111	0.5832	1.0000	68.25
6	USC	0.7903	0.9553	0.5020	0.6016	0.9167	65.99
7	Alabama	0.5856	0.9080	0.5236	0.6462	0.9231	62.75
8	Boise State	0.8041	0.8755	0.6306	0.3677	1.0000	62.59
9	TCU	0.7305	0.9482	0.6541	0.6018	0.8333	60.17
10	Ohio State	0.5070	0.8925	0.6837	0.7413	0.8333	59.53
11	Texas Tech	0.8635	0.4991	0.3007	0.6950	0.9167	58.77
12	Cincinnati	0.5049	0.6720	0.7056	0.6264	0.8462	52.27
13	Ball State	0.8185	0.6350	0.6795	0.1745	0.9231	46.17
14	Virginia Tech	0.3348	0.8356	0.5343	0.7597	0.6923	44.92
15	East Carolina	0.3887	0.6736	0.4815	0.4795	0.6923	34.93

The OCGR is actually set up to determine the top two teams after the bowl season.  The more data the OCGR receives, the more reliable it is.  The OCGR would benefit if the bowls would not include the championship game as well as have the Cotton Bowl included in the BCS mix.  Therefore, if the OCGR formula and proposals were used, here are the following BCS bowls and match-ups:

The proposals would also affect seven "second-tier" bowls and their match-ups to improve data and match-ups:

Available at-larges: Texas (or Oklahoma if Big 12 used OCGR), Utah, Alabama, Boise State, Cincinnati, and Virginia Tech (since Miami will host Championship Game after all bowls)

BCS Bowls

Rose Bowl: Pac-10 Champ (USC) vs. Big Ten Champ (Penn State)
Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 Champ (Oklahoma, or Texas if OCGR used) vs. At-large (Alabama)
Cotton Bowl: At-large (Texas, or Oklahoma) vs. At-large (Utah)
Sugar Bowl: SEC Champ (Florida) vs. At-large (Virginia Tech)
Orange Bowl: At-large (Cincinnati) vs. At-large (Boise State)

"Second-tier" Bowls

Available teams:
ACC: Boston College, Georgia Tech
Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan State
Big 12: Missouri, Texas Tech
Big East: Pitt, West Virginia (other teams available: Navy, Troy, & Ball State)
Pac-10: Oregon, Oregon State
SEC: Georgia, Ole Miss
C-USA/MWC/WAC: East Carolina, TCU

Holiday Bowl: Big 12 #1 (Texas Tech) vs. Pac 10 #1 (Oregon State)
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: ACC #1 (Georgia Tech) vs. SEC #2 (Ole Miss)
Insight Bowl: Pac 10 #2 (Oregon) vs. MWC Champ/WAC Champ/Best Available (TCU)
Capital One Bowl: SEC #1 (Georgia) vs. Big 10 #1 (Ohio State)
Gator Bowl: Big East #1/2/Independent/non-BCS Champ/Best OCGR team (West Virginia) vs. ACC #2 (Boston College)
Liberty Bowl: Conf-USA Champ/MWC Champ (East Carolina) vs. Big East #1/2/Independent/non-BCS Champ (Pitt)
Alamo Bowl: Big 12 #2 (Missouri) vs. Big 10 #2 (Michigan State)

Finally, the Big 12 was able to hold off the ACC and the SEC as the number one rated conference.  The ACC, helped with a 15-8 mark versus BCS schools, managed to stay ahead of the SEC for second place.

(Conference strength through games played on Dec. 6)

Rank	Conference	OOC Record	Cur. Rating	'09 Rating
1	Big 12	38-10	0.6501	0.6599
2	ACC	37-11	0.6376	0.6508
3	SEC	37-11	0.6340	0.6491
4	Big East	29-12	0.6106	0.6173
5	Big Ten	32-12	0.5905	0.5965
6	MWC	25-11	0.5843	0.5952
7	Pac-10	14-17	0.5073	0.5068
8	WAC	18-19	0.4910	0.4875
9	MAC	22-30	0.4673	0.4676
10	Conference USA	18-30	0.4394	0.4370
11	Independents	17-27	0.4399	0.4342
12	Sun Belt	13-27	0.4217	0.4106

To view last week's OCGR, click here.

To view the OCGR home page for more insight behind the OCGR and this week's ratings using the new formulas and ranges, click here.

If you would like more information about the OCGR or my proposals to change the bowl structures and include a plus-one, please leave me a comment and I will get back to you.