Arsenal Still on Course to Finish Top Four in the 2010-11 Premier League Season

I write this a couple of days before Arsenal's next match against Sunderland to underscore my conviction: Arsenal will not finish the current season (2010-11) lower than fifth on the Premiership Table. I, in fact, believe that Arsenal will match last season's achievement by finishing fourth.

Although disgruntled fans and naysayers alike are already consigning Arsenal to the bottom three in the Premiership come May, and are already sampling the taste of the schadenfreude this calamity will yield, time, I believe, will prove them wrong. Here is why I think so.

The naysayers base their conclusions on the fact that Arsenal have lost four games already this season, to Liverpool, Manchester United, Blackburn and Tottenham Hotspur. Though this undoubtedly eliminates Arsenal from being title contenders, barring an unbeaten run henceforth, four loses are not enough to stop them from finishing fourth in the league—let alone condemn them to relegation.

Again, the worst Arsenal can finish this season is in fifth position.

Finishing Fifth

In the last six seasons, the infamous barren trophy-less seasons for Arsenal, the best record for a fifth placed side is held by Manchester City, who lost just seven games in the 2009-10 season, winning 18 matches and drawing 13. The second best performance came from Tottenham Hotspur last season, as they lost eight matches, won 16 and drew 14.

Tottenham finished fifth in 2005-06 season, having lost nine matches, drawn 11, and won 19. Everton also lost nine matches, tied 12, and won 17 in the 2008-09 season.

In 2007-08 season, Everton lost 11 matches yet managed to finish fifth, having won 19 matches and drawn eight.

The worst finisher in fifth position in the same period of study, Tottenham Hotspur, 2006-07 season, lost 12 matches, drawing nine, and winning 17.

To summarize, then, teams in fifth position have lost as many as 12 matches while still managing to finish that high.

Furthermore, a team has lost 11 matches and still finished fourth—Arsenal, in the 2005-06 season. Another lost 10 and still finished fourth—Tottenham Hotspur, in the 2009-10 season. Yet another team lost 10 matches but finished as high as third on the table—Liverpool, 2006-07 season.

Based on losses, we know Arsenal cannot win the title this season, barring an unbeaten run from this point on till the end of the season.  Within the six years under consideration, title winning teams did not lose more than 6 matches. In fact, only Chelsea won the title in 2009-10 season having lost as many.

Manchester United won it twice with five losses (2006-07, 2007-08 seasons), Chelsea also lost five in the 2005-06 season.  Manchester United won the title in the 2008-09, and the 2010-11 season, losing only four matches.

Thus, realistically, winning the title is out of the question for Arsenal. Even I cannot see them finishing the season without losing an additional four matches, despite my willingness to keep faith with the team.

This, then, is what informs my faith about their finishing fourth this season—if they can manage to lose only an additional four matches in the remainder of the season, they will be home and dry. They will have secured a play-off position in the UEFA Champions League, with all the associated benefits.

Stopping the Leaky Roof

But will Arsenal be able to manage this—lose only four additional matches? I believe they can.

Even with their disastrous start to the season, their loses have not neccessarily been to better teams. Take the United walloping—even the naysayer willing to be objective would agree this was a much weakened Arsenal side, and that a stronger lineup wouldn't have suffered such a beating.

Of the goals scored in that match, three were set pieces. One, the first, a result of schoolboy defending at its worse (Djourou), and only two were truly well-worked (Nani's and Park's).

Young's first and second were goals that any team can concede. With a little good fortune, the result could have been more conventional.

Of fortune, the tale must be that it has deserted Arsenal in recent years. Was it not fortune that conspired to concoct the Aaron Ramsey's ricochet against Liverpool? Excepting that, would not the result have been different?

At Blackburn, were not two of the goals from set pieces? And was not one scored from an offside position, so that Blackburn actually only scored one legitimate goal? And should we be faulted too much if we blame fortune for two own goals in a single match?

Against Spurs, did not Van der Vaart score the first goal from a handball?  With good fortune at work the goal might not have stood and Van der Vaart might have been booked instead. And was not the second goal the type that teams are helpless to stop, a long-range, hopeful ball?

My point is that, of the 16 goals Arsenal have conceded from the seven matches they have played this season, only four of those can be considered inevitable. In other words, the remaining 12 could have been prevented by minor tinkering (i.e. have Djourou stay awake in a match, not concede from Rooney-type free kicks, nor conspire to score against yourself or give away penalties and somehow have referees and linesmen do their job and not decide the matches themselves).

Some would say I have touched upon the exact reason why Arsenal are unlikely to finish in the top four but might instead flirt with relegation—the silly goals they have been conceding. They would be right.

My assumption, my faith, realistic I think, is that the silly goals could stop, and that Arsenal may lose their remaining four or six matches of the season to goals that cannot be helped, like the four “legitimate” goals in the pool of 16.

Finishing Fourth

To finish fifth, I have worked with the assumption that Arsenal could afford to lose four to six additional matches, based on statistics from the last six seasons—although, last year, Arsenal lost eight matches and still finished fourth.

I have already shown that, the season before, Spurs lost 10 matches and still finished fourth. In 2006-07 season, Arsenal lost eight matches and still finished fourth. In 2005-06 season, they finished fourth despite losing 11 matches.

Based on these statistics, therefore, there is still a strong probability that Arsenal could attain fourth position come May. As a matter of fact, it is not losses, per se, that ruin a team’s chances of finishing high in the league, it is the number of draws.

A team can sustain heavy losses and still finish high in the league (like Spurs 10, a season before last, Arsenal’s 11 in 2005-06 season and Chelsea’s and Manchester City’s nine losses last season while still finishing second and third respectively), but   too many draws can be as ruinous as losing.

Of the seven matches Arsenal have played, they have drawn only one, won two, lost four. This is not bad as long as in the coming stretch the losing can be kept minimal and the winning can outstrip drawing.

Fireflies for Stars

Some would argue Arsenal simply don't have the resources needed to finish fourth. True. Arsenal’s defensive personnel still cannot inspire confidence. Thomas Vermaelen is out still, and there’s no guarantee he’ll stay fit when he comes back. Djourou, whom Wenger just touted as versatile (!), is horribly out of form.

Koscielny is erratic, Jenkinson is out of his league and Santos is jittery and doesn’t as yet look reliable. Squillaci is a sorry case even when fit, and he’s not. Sagna is out and the only reliable defenders right now are Gibbs and Mertesacker.

The only thing to be done as far as Arsenal’s defense goes is to appeal to fortune.

Return with grace, o faithless wheel,

On us affix the victor’s seal,

As in those prosp’rous years you did

When high you raised the victor’s head

Above the foe and peer alike

And cheers attained our glorious flight!

The midfield is promising. Once Abou Diaby returns, and can stay fit and rekindle his best form, the effect of losing Fabregas and Nasri will be minimized. Here, Arsenal have Song, who holds the ball well, and they have Arteta who can be dominant.

What is required now is a good passer of the ball, hopefully Diaby could fill that role. Other options are Frimpong and Coquelin. And, of course, Ramsey could still be the next Fabregas, although he is still just a shadow of himself at the moment.

Arsenal’s attack is not bad, and Robin Van Persie and Walcott are scoring goals. Arsenal have not failed to score in any of the matches they’ve played this season. This can only be a good a thing.

If Walcott can turn his admiration for Thierry Henry to emulation, Arsenal would be okay. Gervinho is a good replacement for Nasri, whom Arsenal fans should do well to forget. If Gervinho can find goal scoring form, the omens could yet favor the seemingly confounded (shell-shocked?) Gunners.

Statistically, then, Arsenal can still finish in the top four. Fortune could replace its six-year long frown with a smile and stop Arsenal players from breaking their legs, pulling their hamstrings and fracturing their ankles.

Fortune could stop Arsenal receiving senseless red cards and scoring own goals; it could even stop referees from concocting phantom penalties (as happened against Newcastle last year), or from awarding offside goals (as against Everton last year and Blackburn this year). Fortune may even  stop Manchester City from luring away Arsenal players! Even better, fortune could turn its frown towards the Manchester area!  

Indeed, it could compel Wenger to make reasonable signings in January, a pragmatic move that could ensure Arsenal’s continual presence in the UEFA Champions League, turn the illusion that fireflies are stars to the practical reality that they are not.