Alabama-Florida: Game Analysis and Prediction

To begin, please read Eric Brown’s excellent article titled B/R Vs. ESPN: Handicapping the Hidden Battle In Atlanta.  It segues nicely into why you should be reading this in the first place—and it directs you to a very good website about college football picks.  

Or just be a rebel and continue reading.  Either way…

So I keep reading and hearing that this year’s SEC Championship Game is “Florida’s Flash” vs. “Alabama’s Grit.”

And I just don’t understand it. 

Yes, Florida has flashy and lightning-fast players, and yes, Alabama has top-notch, gritty lineman in the trenches.

But these teams didn’t get to the SEC title game without great players all over the field.

Isn’t Tim Tebow the toughest quarterback in the nation—the “one-man wrecking ball,” as some have called him?  Isn’t Julio Jones one of the best and most athletic wide receivers in college football?  Are the Pouncey twins finesse players?  Is Javier Arenas not one of the most electrifying return men in the nation? 

But I digress…

One of the benefits of having the greatest wife in the world is that she allows me to watch football every weekend.  The one game of the day I really want to watch quickly turns into two, three, and four—and nearly all of these games are SEC games.   

That said, before I go on, let me preface this by saying that I think Florida wins hands down this weekend.  Whether it’s close for a while or not really doesn’t matter.  I think Florida will continue its dominance and pull away for a convincing victory.   

So Bama fans, either continue reading while foaming at the mouth—or stop reading now and save yourself a panic attack.  Or just skim over it and leave the obligatory “Roll Tide!” comment.

Moving on:  There is this myth that in rivalry games or games with much on the line that you should “throw the stats out the window.”  Call me crazy, but that’s usually what the underdogs say.

Like FSU, for example.  They wanted to chuck those stats right out the window.  And Georgia, too; set the stats aside, the experts said.  This will be a war! 

Blah blah blah. 

While I agree that some stats can be misleading and meaningless altogether, in this case, for this particular game—Florida appears to have a major advantage in several areas, but for time’s sake, I will only address one in this analysis. 

Florida will win this game for one reason only: field position. 

Let us begin with kickoffs. 

Alabama struggles with both kickoffs and kickoff returns.  For starters, despite having Javier Arenas, Alabama is dead last in the SEC in kick return average.

Florida’s kickoff coverage is a bit unusual in that they try to pin their opponents into the corner, sometimes leading to the kickoff going out of bounds.  Other times it leads to a very one-dimensional return, as it limits the o

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?