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Seems like the folks in Vegas are getting nervous. Wasn't the first line something like 11.5 points against the Tide? Now it's down to nine in some. I suspect it may drop more prior to kickoff as rumor has it the big money is on Alabama...

Alabama Beats the Odds, Florida Doesn't

by Larry Burton (Senior Writer)

60

3,431 reads

Preview/Prediction

December 04, 2008


Seems like the folks in Vegas are getting nervous.  Wasn't the first line something like 11.5 points against the Tide?  Now it's down to nine in some.  I suspect it may drop more prior to kickoff as rumor has it the big money is on Alabama.

Usually smart people have money, therefore it would stand to reason that the smart money should and is being cast down on the boys in crimson. 

Already this year the Tide was an underdog against Clemson.  We now all know how that turned out.  People say Clemson's not that good.  Well, it took them several weeks to shake off that woodshed thrashing and start believing in themselves again.  They've now won four out of their last five and made a bowl game.

They said Georgia would put the Tide's lights out in the now famous "Blackout" game.  It was 31-0 by half time and Georgia, just like Clemson, would have this game shake their confidence in "Big Games."  They lost to Florida, (badly) and to in-state rival Ga. Tech (sadly).

Now they say Florida will beat Alabama.  Yeah, yeah, yeah.  That tune's getting old for the players, coaches, and fans.  They've heard all this before and it didn't intimidate them then, either.

With Harvin hobbled, the defensive line cobbled, and their cockiness wobbled, the Gators are going to have a long and painful day ahead of them.  Alabama's plan is school-yard-bully simple.  Offense pounds it down your throat and the defense stops everything at the line of scrimmage.

Urban Meyer has already said it will take two linemen, (twin brothers, in fact) to take care of just one Alabama landmark, Mount Cody.  Florida's preoccupation with Cody will allow others to shoot the gaps.  Tebow will be wondering who's coming next and from where, more than who's open and where.

And that's only when Saban allows them to have the ball.  Look for Alabama to have a couple of eight-minute drives in this game.  The lack of healthy defensive linemen for the Gators is either going to make for a LOOOONG day for the starters, or a lot of embarrassment for the subs they may try and bring in.

The Ole Miss center said it best when he said, "We beat Florida on their field and the scoreboard.  Alabama beat us on the scoreboard and whipped us on the field."

So far this season, Alabama has fought the odds and come out ahead.  That statement includes using so many inexperienced players, beating the Vegas odds-makers, and simply beating the opponents that lined up against them.

Florida hasn't beat the odds this year in the same manner.  They're playing with experienced people at the height of their talent and still they've under-performed.  This Saturday won't be any different.

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60 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment

  1. Nick The Only 7 months ago

    Sorry Larry, you're off base. Florida has covered the spread in every game except for one. I know that Bama has failed to cover at least once (Tulane, and probably more, Kentucky for example).

    Also, experienced people? Florida has the youngest (and best) defense in the SEC.

    Look for Alabama to lose this game in an embarassing fashion.

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    • GatorJon 7 months ago

      Nick, I looked at the defensive 2-deep roster yesterday. There are NO seniors on that roster.

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    • Larry Loser 7 months ago

      Nick,

      Your right-- Im sorry. and so is my article. Im moving to Gainesville to to be around Champions and and retiring as Im a sorry analyst anyway. God Bless All. - Larry

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  2. JoeGator Gator 7 months ago

    It opened at 10 on Monday, dropped to 9.5 thru the week. Went to 11 today on many boards... 10 and 10.5 on some. Sorry Larry, don't see the "smart money" on Bama.

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  3. Josh Post 7 months ago

    Florida has been under performing..Is it a joke? Who has played better than them last 2 months.

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  4. Patrick Griffey 7 months ago

    Please quit saying that the win against Clemson beat the odds. I am from South Carolina and everyone, including INTELLIGENT Clemson fans knew they were overrated to start with... Clemson are choke artists, so saying that the win against Clemsux means anything is retarded.

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    • Larry Burton 7 months ago

      If you know so much more than all the Las Vegas odds makers then, you must be rich. Can you loan me a million dollars or buy a clue to rational discussion?

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    • Patrick Griffey 7 months ago

      Actually, I don't gamble cause I'm smart enough to know that you win some and lose some and I don't wanna get involved in risky business.
      Everyone I knew was shocked that Clemson was favored over Alabama in the first game of the season. It was actually closer than I expected...

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  5. C rittenden 7 months ago

    "They're playing with experienced people at the height of their talent and still they've under-performed."

    If by experienced you mean sophmores and juniors. If by "at the height of their talent" you mean at the beginning of their sojourn towards the pro ranks.

    Your article is partisan hackery, but keep saying it, AL is starting to get cocky about this game, and that's right where we want them.
    BTW: Keep talking about the Ole Miss loss, too. It helps both Ole Miss and FL.

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    • Larry Burton 7 months ago

      You're gonna have to explain to us all how the Ole Miss loss helps Florida... Inquiring minds want to know...

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    • Nick The Only 7 months ago

      Larry - As someone who watched every game, I can assure that Florida was just a different team before and during the loss to Ole Miss. They struggled to put away Miami until Tebow took over in the 4th quarter. They were not clicking offensively against Tennessee. Against Ole Miss, everything was bad. They were just flat and getting by on talent. It even carried over to Arkansas a little. Then, it all clicked. The play calling also got better after the Ole Miss game and throughout the Arkansas game. The running backs are involved now (something that Florida discovered when Rainey and Demps ran all over Arkansas - 270 total that game). Tebow went from 60 % passer to a 67% passer. He has averaged about 4 TDs a game since, with another 4 TDs from the rest of the team per game. The line is blocking well. The defense is ferocious. Carlos Dunlap is playing like the 6'7" 290 lb sprinter that he is (co-leading the SEC in sacks now). The secondary and linebackers intercept nearly every bad pass and they take about 1/4 of their interceptions back for TDs. Its just been an overall team effort. They've even switched from returning punts to blocking punts. Its a more aggressive mentality.

      Bama is certainly capable. But Ole Miss did Florida a favor. A loss to an SEC west team has ended up helping Florida more than it hurt them. No disrespect to Ole Miss, they're legit (Bama fans know this - they played you close in Tuscaloosa).

      May the best team win.

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  6. Thomas Goldstein 7 months ago

    Larry's trash talk can't mask the fact, the Florida have earned the right to be favored over Alabama. Fans on both sides should be plenty nervous about the outcome of Saturday's game, but taking the most casual glance at the performances of each team over their respective opponents it is easy to come to the following conclusion: (1) Alabama must not be taken lightly, they are undefeated for a reason (2) Florida looks scary good after eight weeks of BLOW OUT WINS. Some of those victories were against good defenses. A string of performances no amount of pie in the sky scenarios and trash talk can obscure. On the other hand as Florida is without two defensive lineman and a healthy Percy Harvin...who knows? Let's talk Sunday.

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  7. C rittenden 7 months ago

    "You're gonna have to explain to us all how the Ole Miss loss helps Florida... Inquiring minds want to know..."

    It inspired. Surely you understand this.

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  8. Thomas Goldstein 7 months ago

    Larry asks, "I guess Georgia earned the right to be favored over us too... Don't see the similarities????" Answer: Who cares? The true measure of any team is taken at the end of the season. You want earned? Let's have a proper playoff. Meanwhile, Alabama and Florida has "earned" the right to play each other Saturday. I'll let Florida's quality wins speak for themselves.

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  9. John McDonald 7 months ago

    wow, sounds like loads of delusional bama bias to me. also, this article needs some fact checking.

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  10. C rittenden 7 months ago

    "So did us continuing to win... I rather be inspired by greatness..."

    You're being wilfully ignorant. This is exactly how the Buckeyes were acting in 2006 as well. If the AL players imagine for one second that the FL team that shows up Saturday will be the same one that played Ole Miss, then AL will get slaughtered - and rightfully so.

    If the AL players have a better grasp on how FL has developed as a team since the Ole Miss loss than you do, then we might just have a football game.

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  11. J Gator 7 months ago

    Larry, I don't even know where to begin.
    It's one thing to support your team. It's quite another when you start disrespecting another. Especially a quality opponent like Florida.

    Do you honestly believe Florida has underperformed? If you can answer yes without any hesitation, then no one (probably not even Bama fans) can take you seriously.

    Look at Florida's wins:

    6-6 Hawaii, +46
    7-5 Miami, +23
    @ 5-7 Tennessee, +24
    @ 5-7 Arkansas, +31
    No.4 7-5 LSU, +30,
    6-6 Kentucky, +58
    *No.6 9-3 Georgia, +39
    @ 6-6 Vanderbilt, +28
    No.25 7-5 South Carolina, +50
    @No.20 8-4 Florida State, +30

    Total, +359, in 11 games!
    that's winning by an average of 33 points per game!
    their only blemish was a 1 point loss to underrated and overlooked 8-4 Ole Miss

    You Larry, are a true GATOR HATER. There is no other explanation for the trash that you write on here.

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    • Larry Burton 7 months ago

      I guess if you don't jump on the media bandwagon, you're a Gator hater... hmmmmm Anybody else see anything wrong with that? J you like statistics,,, the most important one is Bama beats Ole Miss, Florida doesn't. All you other stats are unimportant until the game is over.

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  12. Chris Rock 7 months ago

    UF has covered 10-1 this year. Alabama has covered 9-3. What the hell are you talking about?

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  13. Chris Rock 7 months ago

    Larry, the more I read this, uh, "article" the more it gives me joy! Saturday will be a great day... for UF.

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  14. Tim Pollock 7 months ago

    I just wish there was one tad of analysis in this article.

    As it is, it's just Alabama's good, Harvin is injured, the spread moved, etc, etc....

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  15. GatorJon 7 months ago

    Wow Larry, this is pretty pitiful. You really seem to be running out of high ground in a hurry. You should consider sticking with bashing LSU and Auburn. Good luck.

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  1. roger tittle 7 months ago

    It's funny to sit here and watch bama and gator fans go at it, disrespecting each others team arguing about who covered the spot and who didnt, etc. The bottom line is both of these teams deserve to be here. Alabama plays better as an underdog and are able to play on the road. Florida scores a lot of points but Alabama plays defense and don't care about blowouts. It's just not their style of football. Alabama could as easily suffered a close loss such as tha Florida Ole Miss game. The oddsmakers care more about points and statistics and then they pick a number. Florida is use to success and Alabama finally has a good coach and they are hungry and will want this game a little bit more than the gators. I'm glad Florida is favored. I think Saban will lead us to the promised land Saturday. But if they don't, all bama fans can still be proud of the season they've had and we took back the state too. Alabama 36 Auburn 0. Roll Tide!!!!!

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  2. Michael Devivero 7 months ago

    Larry, please have a little more respect for the Gators.

    I'm not asking you to root for them. I'm not asking you to like them. I'm just asking you to be honest.

    The truth is that Florida has nothing to do with Clemson or Georgia.

    Florida beat Miami 26-3 and FSU 45-15. Clemson lost to FSU 41-27.

    Is there any doubt that Florida would beat Clemson by 24 pts on a neutral field? Don't get me wrong, I'm not devaluing Alabama's victory. The point is, the Clemson game doesn't prove Alabama is better than Florida.

    As far as Georgia is concerned, Florida beat them 49-10, so I don't think anyone is anticipating Alabama will jump out to a 31-0 lead come Saturday.

    Basically, this whole article is excuses and wishful thinking. Harvin is going to play, and Alabama will have no answer for him.

    You're right about one thing: "This Saturday won't be any different". Florida has looked like the better team all season long, and that won't change Saturday.

    One mistake-filled quarter against Ole Miss isn't enough evidence to overturn dozens of dominating quarters turned in by Florida.

    If Alabama "whipped" Ole Miss and only beat them by 4 points, while Florida "under-performed" and lost to Ole Miss by 1, isn't that an indication that Florida will beat Alabama?

    I'm sure you are sick of hearing the media tell you how good Florida is. Just remember that two wrongs don't make a right.

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    • Larry Burton 7 months ago

      Micheal, Florida has looked like the better team all season long? They didn't look to spiffy against Ole Miss, why refuse to count that game? Good teams win. Wanna be's make excuses for losses. Style points and big wins don't erase losses. Bama has had UGLY wins this year. But in our worst games, we won. Florida didn't.

      I have the healthiest respect for Florida of any team we've played this year. I know we could EASILY get whooped this Saturday, but I also know we could just as surely put down the Gators. Momentum will determine a lot. Alabama is not set up to be the come from behind team.

      It urks ALL of us that we're not getting the respect we feel we deserve. We see this as just another time Florida is favored, and then taken down. Remember, this has all played out just like this before.

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    • mpesky 7 months ago

      Michael,
      All Bama fans should respect Florida. Tim Tebow is the best of the best. He alone is a good case for respect. I will not say that my Tide will win this one. I will say that lets us get THE GAME on and if my Tide is bested then I will pull for the Gators to win the national championship.

      The only note of caution that I will point out to Gator fans is this. Alabama has been beating teams that they were not supose to beat all year long. Anyone remember the 1993 Sugar Bowl? Miami was way too good for Bama to even play. Final score 34-13 Bama.

      This Tide team is hungry. This Tide team is on a mission. This Tide team is for real.

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    • Joan Layton 7 months ago

      Very well said MPesky!! I think you have just shown everyone how a REAL bama fan is!!!

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  3. Iceman 7 months ago

    most people are writing bama off, but i wont go that far, they are ranked #1 for a reason. if bama can push floridas d- line around and stop big plays bt floridas O, it could be bamas game. but I do think Florida has a edge with all that damn speed, I cant wait for the game, its gonna be epic.

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  4. Craig B. 7 months ago

    I watched both of these teams beat my team in person this year (Tennessee) (not proud of it, but whatever). Trust me when I say I can look at this game with complete objectivity, I hate both of these teams equally.

    Florida came into Knoxville and never really looked good all game. Thier offense was held in check by our defense for most of the game. Florida just has so much talent that they won by default. Both teams played poorly but Tebow and company are good enough to have a bad game and still put up points. I know that I did not see the best Florida had to offer. Tennessee still had much to play for coming into that game and motivation was not a problem for UT. Florida is just plain good in ALL phases of the game.

    Alabama came into Knoxville a couple of games later. They also didn't look very good for the entire first half. I can honestly say that it was not for lack of effort on thier part. UT's defense was stout and made Bama's offense sputter. But in fairness Bama's defense was probably the best D that UT played all season (hard to judge because our offense didn't even move the ball against Wyoming, anyways...). Nick Saban did a good job at halftime because Bama looked like a different team in the second half. UT's defense is one of the best in the country and Bama just ground it out for the rest of the game. Tennessee's D just looked like they played for 24 straight hours at the end of the game. Bama's O line is very good.

    To compare the two is sort of difficult. I didn't get to see the Florida of November, but I do think I saw the best Alabama in the second half of the game. I have to say that if Florida does what they have been doing recently and jump out to an early lead then Bama will not be able to keep up with the scoring machine. On the other hand if Bama is ahead or the game is close into the 3rd and 4th quarters then Florida may be in trouble.

    This will be very interesting. I'm just gonna throw a number out there.
    Florida- 35 Bama-24

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  5. keith k 7 months ago

    Larry, this article reminds me more of "Larry the Cable Guy" standup....I think you're trying to be funny, but nobody is laughing.

    You can't be serious. Your main premise is that Bama will beat UF because the Gators lost to Ole Miss 2 MONTHS AGO! Really?

    How 'bout playing basically one half against Georgia and surviving the rest of the game. Florida mopped up Georgia. Maybe having a TERRIBLE LSU squad taking Bama to overtime when UF beats them by over 4 touchdowns.

    Florida is going to win, solid. Wanna bet?

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    • Larry Burton 7 months ago

      No, you simply can't accept the premise of this story. Alabama was picked to finish about 25th year, and beat BIG odds to be number one and stay undefeated. Florida on the other hand WAS picked to be a tough team, a top team, and certainly beat Ole Miss, but didn't.

      You can spin this any way you want and it doesn't erase those facts. Bama's beaten the odds and Florida hasn't. Now, spin away....

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    • Michael Devivero 7 months ago

      Quit making up stories Larry. How did Bama beat the odds and Florida didn't?

      Both teams are playing for a spot in the national championship. Both have "beaten the odds" up to this point because their national championship dreams are alive.

      To say that Florida didn't beat the odds is implying that they were favored to go undefeated, which is absolutely not true. The only way a team can be favored to go undefeated is if more people are betting that they will go undefeated than those who aren't. This never happened, so stop spreading lies.

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  6. C rittenden 7 months ago

    According to Larry, AL should easily wipe the floor with FL, so I guess FL is the underdog now.

    Keep screaming Ole Miss!! Ole Miss!! That won't help you at all when you're watching AL get murdered saturday. Don't you see - it just isn't relevant anymore. You're only embarrassing yourself by hanging so much importance on it.

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    • Larry Burton 7 months ago

      Boy, you should write fiction as easily as you fictionalize what I've said here... Is there ANY more relevant factor than wins and losses?

      Your own "Old Ball Coach" Steve Spurrier once said, 'There's wins and losses and then there are excuses." If we lose, I'll be back to congrat the Gaytors, because I think enough of MY team to know they earned it.

      We've played up to level of our best competition this year and sometimes down to level of our competition. I expect us to give Florida our best. Therefore, if we lose, you'll hear no excuses from me, just congrats.

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  7. Brian Scott 7 months ago

    Larry-

    I don't have a dog in this fight, but FYI:

    Florida opened up at -10 and went to -9, but is currently hovering between -9.5 and -10.5. The drop from -10 to -9 does mean that the public was initially buying Bama and the points, but if it were a significant percentage, it would have dropped to at least 7.

    The fact that the line has moved back to -10 and in some books -10.5 shows that the sheet started to even up and has swung back to Florida. You know how Vegas loves an even sheet.

    Currently (Friday morning), 59% of the public is on Florida covering. The lack of sharp line movements make this a hard one to buy the middle, so you see most of the sheep going with the favorite.

    Also, 89% of the public is on the points total going over 51. Just a bonus.

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  8. John Hanyen 7 months ago

    Gaytors!! you better do something now before it's too late.

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  9. Brian Jordan 7 months ago

    Roll Tide!!!! Gators fans will hang there heads when they walk out of the stadium this Saturday!!!

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  10. Tim Pollock 7 months ago

    Larry, you are a grown man and you still use the term "Gaytors."

    Just saying.

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  11. Randy Capps 7 months ago

    I have been an Alabama fan my entire life and whether we win or loose this game on Saturday it is nice to see Alabama back in the conversation of the best teams in the country. We are a young team and not expected to be here this soon so if we don't win be looking for us again nexst year.

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  12. Michael Matthews 7 months ago

    As a fan of a school (LSU) that suffered defeats from both schools, and as a fan that equally despises both schools, I think I can provide an objective point-of-view here.

    On the surface, it is easy to point out that UF was more convincing in their victory. They scored 51 points and won by 30. Bama struggled to a 27-21 overtime win. Both teams benefited from horrendous QB play from its opposition. But the difference that I see in these two teams is the killer instinct.

    Despite 3 interceptions in regulation, Bama was only able to capitalize on one of them - the one returned for the TD. Twice in the fourth quarter, Bama had a chance to put the nail in the coffin and they couldn't. On the other hand, UF hung onto a mere 13 point lead with some LSU momentum late into the third quarter. They were able to switch gears and go on to outscore the Tigers 24-7 the rest of the way. That is the way to finish a team you have on the ropes - something that I haven't seen from Bama yet this year. The same team that saw a 31-0 halftime lead shrink into a 41-30 victory. A team that saw a 24-3 halftime lead turn into a 24-21 escape.

    However, in its last two games against supremely inferior SEC opponents, Bama has managed to increase its lead rather than watch it diminish. But UF is by-fer the best team they will face this year, and I don't expect to see that trend continue.

    Basically, against both mediocre and good teams, Bama has lacked the ability to finish off its opposition. This is why, even in a close game, I have to give the edge to UF. You can point at the Ole Miss loss as much as you want - won't change anything. Every other game, UF was able to extend it's halftime lead - and those eleven times are far more impressive than the one hiccup is discouraging. That is a sign of a team that knows how to finish off a game, and thats why I like UF big.

    38-17

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  13. t-lu 7 months ago

    well no duh florida was more convincing florida beat them by 30 points. "j and c" i have to say i strongly agree with you. look at the buckeyes in 2006..i stopped watching after the half...it was a waste of a year in my eyes. Larry you are telling this kid not to base his argument on statistics yet you are arguing that bama will beat florida b/c of the ole miss loss seriously? tebow by the way, promised that he would overcome every team after miss. by 14. not only did he do that he lead them to beat EVERY team after ole miss by at least 30 points...beat those odds....i gotta say larry..its like u have never seen an upset in ur life...ole miss beat flroida....great who cares congrats....iowa beat penn state in the prime of their season...tulsa beat michigan. whatever whatever but remember its not about stats...maybe u should listen to ur own advice. i have to say i got florida winning by at least 14 in this one..it'll be tough until the middle of the third, then florida will take a comfy lead in the late 3rd. and have it sealed by the time the clock runs out. but i will say this if bama wins i will be rooting for them against oklahoma or possibly texas january 8th.

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  14. Craig B. 7 months ago

    Michael (LSU fan)............. Is there an echo in here?

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  15. Andy Wood 7 months ago

    Let’s see, can everyone say loyalty? And that’s what I hear most.
    Who won, who lost, what team beat a team that got beat by someone else will mean absolutely nuttin. Regarding the point spread, that won’t mean a thing either unless you gamble. On Saturday the Alabama Crimson Tide will meet the Florida Gators on a neutral field and at the end of the game the score board will tell the nation who the best team is. That’s why they play the game.
    Sad thing about this whole affair the Gator’s could be the odd man out, win or lose, because there is no guarantee they will get the BCS title game. They may end up like other SEC teams in the past and be left out in the cold of January saying would-a, should-a, could-a beat Old Miss.

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  1. Jeff Prutsman 7 months ago

    Yet another article founded upon the mistaken belief that betting odds and points have anything whatsoever to do with who is expected by the odds-making "experts" to win the game, or by how much.

    For the umpteenth time, the odds are designed to make a profitable market for bets on an event. The oddsmaker's job is to determine a point spread that will attract an approximately even dollar volume of wagers on each team.

    The odds-maker's expertise is evaluating public perception about the contest; not evaluating the contest itself. The opening line will change if bets start to build in a pattern that suggests an imbalance in the wager volume, regardless of what odds-makers may believe about the outcome of the game.

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  2. larry losser 7 months ago

    Okay Guys go got me. Im moving to Gainesville to be around real champions. Im sorry and a sorry analyst. -Larry

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  3. larry losser 7 months ago

    No wait a minute I watched the game again and the call stands- Im still a loser.

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  4. Chris Rock 7 months ago

    Covered!

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  5. Sean Cagney 7 months ago

    WOWWWWW, this one surely backfired on him. He brought up Ole Miss over and over and other games and said FLA underachieved this year, well they did what they were supposed to IMO and made the big game (Probably). GA underachieved this year, LSU as well, to say FLA underachieved and didn't cover is just a joke, their second half of this year was utterly amazing! They KILLED EVERYONE pretty much, Bama they did not kill but they won when they had to without two lineman and Harvin. They got it and they deserved it, great year so far.

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  6. brian bass 7 months ago

    we lost harvin yes, we lost two line men yes, we played without CI all year, i thought that was enough to start off with, but in the end after bama fans started chanting "its great to be from alabama" mocking florida we pulled it off... the funny thing was a bout ten minutes into the fourth when the Timenator drove the boys in blue down field to scor leaving two minutes on the clock bama fans began to pack their things and left the stadium... so all week florida heard their line wasn't big enough to match up with bamas d line... well here it is we did, it was a good game bama had a great year, ole miss was a fluke let it go we have proved to be so much better than what we showed that day, and the SEC BELONGS TO FLORIDA, so Larry who is the underachievers, we may have lost to ole miss but we won when it mattered, bama didn't so whats next for you. write about how oklahomas offense is to much for floridas d... please, tell me how will you ride florida until the kick off in january... i hope you enjoy that game as well... but in the end expect to see the orange and blue take over dade county florida.... miami will belong to the universuty of florida that night!!!!

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