NFL Picks Week 6: St. Louis Rams vs Green Bay Packers, Power Rankings Mismatch

Jeff Grant@@JeffGrantSportsContributor IOctober 12, 2011

ATLANTA, GA - OCTOBER 9: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers discusses a play with Head Coach Mike McCarthy during the game against the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome on October 9, 2011 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

The No. 1 Green Bay Packers (5-0) are getting ready to host the No. 31 St. Louis Rams (0-4) for a Week 6 NFL showdown inside Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon.

I'm referencing the Bleacher Report Power Rankings due to the 30-spot difference between the two teams representing a 15.5-point line in the betting odds. 

Green Bay will be facing a dangerous team this week due to St. Louis coming off a bye week, looking for its first win of the 2011 season. 

It's important to note that the Packers haven't covered a number of more than 14 points since at least the 1985-86 season, which is the farthest back I can go in researching the topic.

The franchise's last opportunity in this type of situation came on Oct. 3, 2010, coming away with a 28-26 win over the Detroit Lions as 14.5-point home favorites.

Many professional bettors find this contest to be a classic "letdown" spot, picking up a 25-14 win over the Atlanta Falcons as six-point road favorites in last week's prime-time event

I'm not sure that's the case, as the Packers are not going to want their 11-game win streak to end, which includes the playoff run of a year ago.

Green Bay has also won seven consecutive home contests, while also posting a 28-8 mark in front of the home faithful in its last 36 regular-season games.

With that being said, it's important to note that the spread on this contest was 9.5 points in Las Vegas before the season started, as many believed St. Louis was a legitimate contender to win the NFC West division.

I simply can't ignore six points of value when backing a team that has a talented quarterback in Sam Bradford and powerful running back in Steven Jackson.

Packers signal-caller Aaron Rodgers is tough to fade in any situation, leading the league with a 122.9 passer rating, while also directing the highest-scoring offense at 34.6 points per game.

I just think the team's 6-16-2 ATS mark as a favorite of 10.5 or more points is too much for him to overcome at the betting window in this particular matchup.

Pick:  St. Louis Rams (+15.5)