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Market Shaping Up for Adam Dunn

Ken RosenthalDec 3, 2008
The market for free-agent outfielder Adam Dunn is starting to take shape.

The Braves, Mariners and Nationals are among the teams interested in Dunn, major-league sources say, and his list of suitors could grow quickly.

Dunn, 29, also represents a fallback position for the Dodgers if they lose Manny Ramirez and the Angels if they lose Mark Teixeira.

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The Yankees, too, could emerge as an option if they strike out on the top free-agent starting pitchers.

The Diamondbacks declined to offer Dunn salary arbitration, so any team that signs him will not lose a high draft pick.

The Braves' focus remains starting pitching, but they also need a left fielder, and Dunn or Raul Ibanez could make sense depending upon their respective prices.

The addition of right-hander Javier Vazquez will cost the Braves $11.5 million in each of the next two seasons, and the signing of free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett would make the team less likely to spend big on a hitter.

CC's sleeping Giants

The Giants, one of the more active teams in free agency, still loom as a darkhorse for the top pitching prize, left-hander CC Sabathia.

The Giants have signed left-handed reliever Jeremy Affeldt. They continue to talk with free-agent shortstop Edgar Renteria. The additions of Sabathia and one more hitter could make them quite formidable in the NL West.

The obvious question is whether the Giants could afford Sabathia, even if he gave them a hometown discount (Sabathia is from Vallejo, Ca., near Oakland). Barry Zito is signed through 2013 at an average of $18 million per season. Sabathia figures to cost at least $22 million per season on a six-year deal.

Renteria, 33, also is drawing interest from the Cardinals and Dodgers, prompting one general manager to ask, "Am I missing something?" Well, Renteria had an .827 OPS after the All-Star Game after posting only a .627 OPS before it. His defense, however, remains a major concern. Renteria excels at going up the middle, but is among the worst in the game fielding balls in the hole.

Et tu, Brew Crew?

Teams looking for a SS should check in with the Brewers about JJ Hardy. (Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)

The Brewers are not out of the Sabathia sweepstakes, either, but they will need to increase their offer to six years to stand a serious chance. Sabathia enjoyed playing in Milwaukee, and the Brewers could remain a contender if they successfully reconstruct their bullpen.

Right-hander Ben Sheets is likely to decline the team's offer of salary arbitration, according to a major-league source, but right-hander Yovani Gallardo will be healthy from the start of the season and the team could trade shortstop J.J. Hardy for an established No. 2 or No. 3 starter.

Hardy, who is two years away from free agency, would be worth that price. Not only is he a top defender, but he also ranked second among major-league shortstops in homers, fourth in slugging percentage and eighth in on-base percentage last season.

Think of how much better the Twins would be if they acquired Hardy for one of their young starting pitchers and signed free agent Casey Blake to play third base.

The Manny market

Manny Ramirez, who earned $20 million last season, probably would command at least $25 million on a one-year deal if he accepted the Dodgers' offer of arbitration.

The Dodgers would rejoice over such a development — it would mark the second time they've gotten ridiculously lucky with Ramirez, the first being when they acquired him last July 31.

But does anyone seriously think Ramirez and his agent, Scott Boras, will decide by the Sunday deadline that a lucrative multi-year deal is out of reach?

Such a move would be a concession by Boras that the faltering economy is inhibiting the free-agent market — a premise that the agent has disputed since the start of the offseason.Ramirez, who wants at least a four-year contract, wouldn't be happy if he returned to the Dodgers on a one-year deal. And an unhappy Manny would be a problem for both Boras and the Dodgers.

Take It, 'TEC

Another Boras client, Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek, is a strong candidate to accept arbitration. In fact, it would be an upset if Varitek rejected the team's offer and the chance to earn about $10 million on a one-year deal.

Varitek, 36, simply isn't in position to land the four-year, $52.4 million, free-agent contract that the Yankees awarded catcher Jorge Posada last offseason.

The economy, of course, is one reason, but Posada also was coming off a career year. Varitek batted .220 last season, and there is no obvious fit for him with a contending team.

The Tigers seem disinclined to pay a catcher big money. The Dodgers, who already have Russell Martin, are trying to fill too many holes.

Any team that signs Varitek also would lose a high draft pick — something that would be difficult to justify for a 36-year-old catcher in offensive decline.

Risky business for White Sox

Free-agent shortstop Orlando Cabrera had a tumultuous season with the White Sox, sparring with manager Ozzie Guillen and right fielder Jermaine Dye.

Why, then, would he want to return?

Money.

The White Sox offered Cabrera arbitration to ensure that they would receive two high draft picks as compensation if he signed with another club.

Cabrera, though, could choose to accept the White Sox's offer, knowing he likely would receive a raise from his $9 million salary last season.

He then could go back into the free-agent market next winter, when the economy might be stronger — and the free-agent class at shortstop will be thinner.

The flaw in that scenario is that Cabrera would not start for the White Sox next season.

The White Sox already have decided to move Alexei Ramirez from second base to short. Cabrera might prefer to leave a team that doesn't want him.

Then again, he also could return and request a trade. By offering arbitration, the White Sox diminished Cabrera's value in the free-agent market, forcing any team that signs him to lose a high pick.

Around the horn

Add the Yankees to the list of teams interested in free-agent outfielder Rocco Baldelli. The Rays, Red Sox and Phillies also are pursuing Baldelli, who came back from a rare neuromuscular disease with the Rays last season. Baldelli, 26, could serve the Yankees as a right-handed hitting alternative to Hideki Matsui in the DH spot, and also play outfield against certain left-handed pitchers ...

Rather than pursue an older pitcher such as Randy Johnson, the Cardinals would like to add a younger starter with upside — someone similar to right-hander Kyle Lohse. Left-hander Oliver Perez, 27, is one free agent who fits that description. The Cardinals also are not ruling out a pursuit of a closer such as Brian Fuentes or Kerry Wood if the glut of closers starts to produce free-agent bargains ...

The Reds offered free-agent reliever David Weathers arbitration, a move that could spark discussions of a two-year deal. Weathers, 39, has averaged nearly 71 appearances per season over the last 10 years. He made $2.75 million last season, and his one-year salary in arbitration could rise above $4 million ...

In addition to Dunn, the Mariners also like free-agent left fielder Pat Burrell as a possible replacement for Raul Ibanez, who is virtually certain to decline the team's offer of arbitration. Like Dunn, Burrell was not offered arbitration, making him more attractive to a rebuilding team such as the Mariners, which could sign him without losing a draft pick. Burrell also is on the radar of the Angels and Giants.

This article originally published on FOXSports.com.

Click here to read more of Ken's columns.

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