Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
Surging Cowboys face stiff test against NFL’s best defense
The Cowboys will face the NFL’s top three defenses in consecutive weeks, starting this Sunday against the absolute best in the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers have the league’s stingiest defense in total yards allowed, conceding only 238 yards per game, while the Baltimore Ravens (253.3 ypg) and New York Giants (279.1 ypg) round up the top three.
The Steelers have yet to allow 300 yards of offense this season. Dallas needs to win probably two of the next three games to keep their playoff hopes alive, but surviving the brutally physical three-game gauntlet may prove the tougher task.
Pittsburgh’s style of football hasn’t changed much over the years. They run the ball effectively on offense, then stymie their opponent’s ground game. They are sticking to their winning formula this year, despite injuries along the offensive line and at running back.
Starting running back Willie Parker and first-round draft pick Rashard Mendenhall have missed a combined 15 starts this season, yet the Steelers still ground and pound the ball. They commit to the run to control the clock and to set-up their play-action passing game.
Their offensive numbers are down, but when you have by far the best defense in the league, a little offense is all they need.
Steel Curtain is Closed
The Steelers defense plays the most physical brand of football of any team the Cowboys have faced all year. Their smash-mouth style not only rattles quarterbacks and bruises ball carriers, the Steel Curtain defense just refuses to relent yards on the ground.
The Steelers sweep the run defense stats, ranking first in rushing yards allowed (854), first in rushing yards per game (71.2), and first in rushing yards per attempt (3.1).
You would think a team that sells-out so wholeheartedly to stop the run would give up big plays in the air.
Unfortunately for Dallas, Pittsburgh also leads the league defensively against the pass.
Pittsburgh has only given up 2,002 passing yards all season, again, best in the NFL.
And yes, the Steelers also lead the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, allowing only 166.8 yards per contest.
Just in case you haven’t come to understand, this is the best defensive team in the league. They also lead the NFL in takeaways at 42. If the Steelers continue to lead the NFL in rush defense (71.2), pass defense (166.8) and total defense (238), they would become the first team since 1991 (Philadelphia Eagles) to lead the NFL in all three categories.
Offense is Chink in the Steel Armor
For all the Steelers' first-place statistical ratings on the defensive side of the ball, their offense has been average at best.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 33 times in 12 games, which bodes well for Dallas and their 40 sack total on the year. Roethlisberger has been guilty of holding the ball too long at times, while his patchwork offensive line has failed to provide him any time on other occasions.
Roethlisberger has just one more touchdown (13) than interceptions (12), which is the most he’s thrown in a single season since the 2006 campaign, when he was fresh off head planting into a car off his motorcycle.
Roethlisberger’s quarterback rating of 80 is also the lowest of his career other then the dubious 2006 season (75.4 QB rating).
Sacks on the Sod
Three of the five leading sack men in the NFL will be on Heinz Field’s new sod Sunday, when Dallas visits Pittsburgh.
The Cowboy’s DeMarcus Ware leads the NFL in sacks with 15, while Pittsburgh will counter with James Harrison’s 14 and LaMarr Woodley’s 11.5.
The Steelers’ ground crew will be installing fresh sod, and the forecast is calling for snow and 30 degree temperatures. The fresh sod, wet conditions, and heavy lumbering feet of offensive lineman, could create a sack happy affair for the league’s best.
A December to Remember?
The Cowboys have not had a winning record in the final four games of the season, dating back to 1997, accumulating an 18-31 record.
If Dallas is going to make the playoffs, they will need to improve on that number. The last time the Cowboys had a winning final stretch of the season was 1996, the last year the Cowboys won a playoff game.
The Steelers go on the road at Baltimore and at Tennessee after hosting Dallas, so both teams need the win.
Injury Wheel Keeps on Turning
Romo has been practicing without the pinkie splint this week in Valley Ranch. A wet and heavy football, plus a couple of sacks, could change that, but this will be the healthiest start for Romo in over a month.
Too bad the same thing can’t be said about running back Marion Barber, who dislocated his pinkie toe. Barber has been held out of practice all week, but is expecting to play Sunday.
Ware’s MRI on his sprained knee was negative, but he has yet to practice this week as well. A healthy Ware could be a game-changer defensively for Dallas, so here’s to a speedy recovery for the 26-year-old.
Pacman Jones is expecting to return to the secondary in nickel and dime formations, as well as, get return opportunities.
Matchup
The Steelers are playing their fourth home game in the last five weeks.
The Cowboys have enjoyed a prolonged week following the Thanksgiving contest against Seattle.
Pittsburgh finally got the New England monkey off their back last week, when they held Matt Cassel to 169 yards passing and two interceptions. Cassel was coming off consecutive 400-plus yard passing performances before being shut down at home by the Steelers.
The Cowboys have Romo back and look like the same dominant team that started the season 3-0.
If Barber can fight through the pain for meaningful carries, or backup Tashard Choice can step up and shoulder the load against the physical Steelers, then Romo should find Witten roaming the places vacated by the always blitzing Steelers linebackers.
Pittsburgh won’t have much success on offense against Dallas, nor will Dallas run effectively on the Steelers.
This game will come down to turnovers and special teams and whomever makes the fewest mistakes will carry the day.
Prediction
Dallas 19, Pittsburgh 17
8 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment
Edgar Antonio Nunez 7 months ago
The Cowboys' 2008 season tombstone will be located at Heinz Field. Their season will come to an end there. Sorry.
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Michael Westerberg 7 months ago
If you don't score points, you don't win games. It's as simple as that. The Steelers have to get their offense going if they want to go anywhere in December.
The score might even be lower than what is predicted by the author, but Dallas should carry the day if Romo gets rid of the ball as quick as he usually does.
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Gus HowT 7 months ago
This is the only game I've been looking forward to all year. I live in the heart of DFW (Arlington to be exact), and this game couldn't come soon enough. I'm so glad the Cowboys were able to win the past two cupcake games, giving them that "stellar" 8-4 record. I knew the Steelers would play their best, but showing up 9-3 at this spot is great. This isn't just the game of the week, it's the game of the year for both teams. As a Steeler fan, I'm more scared of this game than I was of the Pats last week. The 'Boys have 10 days to get ready for this, and I'm sure Garrett will come up with a good offensive scheme to counter Blitzburgh.
BUT! The same thing keeps happening the past couple of weeks for the Steelers - second half adjustments. At the half against the Bungals, it was only 10 - 7 Steelers. Then, we pounced and devoured em. Against the Pats, it was tied 10 - 10. Then, our defense adjusted, scared Cassel back to Kindergarten, and helped secure a 33 - 10 victory. I can only suspect the same thing will happen this week.
Prediction:
After 1st Half: Cowboys - 17 ; Steelers - 13
Final Score: Cowboys - 24 ; Steelers - 34
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troy testa 7 months ago
Gus
I know a lot of people in the DFW metro feel the same way about this game. One of my best friends and my next door neighbor are more likely to be caught in Steelers black and gold then wearing any Cowboys gear.
I just don't see how these defenses would allow for that much scoring, especially with new sod on a wet field.
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Matt Clemente 7 months ago
24-16 Pitt; Defense wins championships... Pitt's offense has underperformed... they seems to be playing on all cylinders now
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Jeff Little 7 months ago
Interesting preview Troy but I have to agree with Edgar the Cowboys season ends in Pittsburgh. The Cowboys have gotten fat off of beating the Redskins, 49ers and Seahawks teams that aren't even close to what the last three teams will throw at them defensively. The Redskins have a good team but don't match up well with Dallas and haven't since the passing of Sean Taylor.
This is a must win game for Dallas and the team needs to win out to finish the season and the Cowboys being able to do that has yet to be seen.
Starting G Kyle Kosier will not play, there is a good chance OLB DeMarcus Ware will not play due to a sprained knee and RB Marion Barber is dealing with turf toe which is a serious problem for a runner.
I hate to say it but the last four games on the schedule are a death sentence for the Cowboys who will come up short this sunday and unfortunately lose at least three games in a row and not make the playoffs. It will be extremely difficult if their season comes down to them beating the Eagles to win a wild card spot.
This is too daunting a task for several teams and the Cowboys at full strength would have difficulty competing here and seeing as their hurt and facing three of the leagues best defenses it reminds me of something Brady Quinn said in a Myoplex commercial "Now I'm done!"
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Jacob Sloan 7 months ago
Rough stretch starts here. It's true, but I think that this game will be won/lost by the Steelers offense. If they don't bring it together to score points, the Cowboys have a chance to make some big plays that could win it for them.
Roethlisberger has not looked good all season, so I'm siding a little bit more with the Cowboys for this one. Even with a banged up toe, Barber could be effective late to seal the deal.
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I LOVE STEELER FOOTBALL 7 months ago
Roethlisberger has not looked good because of injuries, but has yet to use that as an excuse! I believe that he has improved on knowing how long to hold on to the football. The offense took off at a slow pace, but they're improving when it really counts. The defense is incredible and jeff is dependable! The Cowboys depend on their stars way too much and make too many excuses for their loses! I love living in Texas but I bleed Black and Gold!!! COWBOYS 24-STEELERS 31
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