Before this is dismissed as a homer's view of the BCS proceedings, read on carefully.
There are seven teams currently ranked ahead of Penn State in the BCS.
- Alabama
- Oklahoma
- Texas
- Florida
- USC
- Utah
- Texas Tech
Now Alabama and Florida play each other next week. If Florida loses, they will have two losses, and will be out of contention. If Alabama goes to the title game, they will as the only BCS conference undefeated team in the land.
Oklahoma and Missouri play next week. If Oklahoma loses, they are out of the title contention.
Wait, if Oklahoma loses, than the voters will just stick Texas in right?
Maybe not...
Think about it. Texas complained that even though they beat Oklahoma head to head, by virtue of the voters and the BCS, Texas was slighted out of the Big 12 South berth to the conference title game.
So how could they lobby to put be put ahead of Texas Tech, a one loss team who beat Texas? Why it would be downright hypocritical.
The voters would realize if Oklahoma loses, that they made a mistake voting the Sooners in. They will decide to go for the head to head. And Texas Tech won that.
We are at a clear solution. Neither Texas Tech or Texas won their own DIVISION, much less their own conference. Tech has too much ground to make up, and Texas lost to them.
Therefore, no one from the Big three of the Big 12 teams can honestly lay any claim to the National Title Game, because two of them could not win their own division, and one couldn't win their conference when given the chance.
So that leaves us with Utah, USC, and Penn State.
Now, this whole article is moot if we knew that an undefeated Utah has a shot at the title. But we know that they are lucky to simply be a BCS buster, much less have a shot at the title game. So we shall unfairly, but realistically ignore them.
And USC is left ahead of PSU for that final spot.
USC assuming they beat UCLA, is 11-1.
They become winners of a weak Pac-10 conference, containing arguably the worst BCS conference teams (Washington & Washington St.), only three ranked teams, and only four at or better than 7-5. USC will be the only BCS Bowl Bound team from the conference.
PSU on the other hand, has already clinched the Big Ten Championship, at 11-1.
They won a decent conference, which has four teams ranked, seven teams at or better than 7-5, and has two BCS Bowl bids on the way with PSU and OSU.
Advantage: PSU
They did not play each other, but they have two opponents in common who they did play.
Ohio State & Oregon State:
USC trampled Ohio State 35-3.
At USC.
OSU did not have Beanie Wells, or Terrelle Pryor.
Penn State beat OSU narrowly, 13-6.
At OSU.
With OSU's offense clicking behind Beanie Wells and Terrelle Pryor.
Advantage: USC, but its closer than it seems...
USC lost to Oregon State 27-21.
At Oregon State.
The score was not nearly as close as indicated. Oregon State clearly controlled the game, and established the tone early. They were never trailing.
Not to mention Jacquizz Rodgers who dazzled everyone with 136 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns, and many pointed as the dagger to USC.
PSU beat Oregon State 41-14.
At Penn State.
17 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment
Snu 7 months ago
Interesting article, and your analysis would be spot on if the BCS had different means of selection. But honestly, Penn State has absolutely zero chance of playing for the BCS title this year. It's either Oklahoma/Texas vs. Florida/Alabama. Here's why....
You have to understand that the BCS picks the national title contenders solely on BCS ranking (#1 vs. #2). At this point in the season, with Penn State having no other games to play, they cannot by any means jump 6 of the 7 teams in front of them, even if Oklahoma loses to Mizzou and USC somehow loses to UCLA this weekend. Penn State has no chance to redeem themselves and jump in the rankings with an impressive win because they have no more games to play (no conference title to play for this weekend - not necessarily their fault, though). Heck, there is actually no way they could even jump Texas Tech at this point, because Tech has no other games to play either (no chance for another loss) and thus will stay ahead of Penn State no matter what. This is the same reason the Longhorns will get the nod for the national title game if Oklahoma happens to lose (Texas has no other games to play).
The current top 4 teams being 2 SEC teams and 2 Big12 teams with only one week of regular season left leads to the inevitable SEC vs. Big12 showdown, no matter the outcome of this weekend's games.
The wording of my explanation may sound a bit confusing, but you will have to bare with me as I'm currently rocking about 4 hours of sleep in the last two days (i have 4 finals to study for this week).
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Anthony Elias 7 months ago
Just wishful thinking.
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sam brar 7 months ago
Yea ok, well i think if anyone outside of texas or OU had a chance to take the 2nd spot in the championship, it would be USC not penn state and definately not utah. Unfortunately, USC wont be able to do it as much i would love to see them do it. Lets face it, USC and Penn State will play in the rose bowl. So unlike a lot of arguements that have no definitive answer, this one will. We will know directly who is better, no need to make assumptions based on similar teams they played. So after the rose bowl we will know out of both teams which one should argue their right to play in the NC, and the loser will have to accept that. I pick USC. They excel in big games, bottom line, say whatever else you may. 5-1 in recent BCS bowls, and in that loss with Texas they were up by 12 in the 4th. In other words they show up when it counts. This wont be a trap game against an oregon state team.
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Anthony Elias 7 months ago
And I'm guessing you ignored the part of the article where I pick PSU over USC with a pretty hefty argument. Anyway, PSU has a 3-0 record in the past 3 bowl games, which is the exact same as USC in the last three years. Oh wait, USC is 2-1 in their past three bowl games.
You can't look at that though.
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Joe Pawlikowski 7 months ago
I wish this was possible, but you are banking on votes from some coaches who still have Ohio State ranked ahead of Penn State. The truth is Penn State's schedule wasn't great but it was much better than people are giving them credit for. They also lost by one point at the end of the game. To me they should be #5 because Tech got smoked, teams like Utah don't even count in my eyes, and USC lost to a common opponent we smoked. Who did USC beat this year by the way? both teams beat Ohio State and Penn State did it on the road, did USC beat anyone else? Sorry I don't count Notre Dame.
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Anthony Elias 7 months ago
Well teams like Utah have to count...but its all wishful thinking.
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Lou Vozza 7 months ago
That's actually not a real bad argument. However, I don't buy the "team that couldn't even win their division shouldn't play for the national title" argument.
We have a poll based two team playoff, not a conference champion based playoff. You are trying to mix up the two to serve your argument. Therefore, if Oklahoma loses to Missouri, Texas Tech should go based on the head to head vs. Texas, but they won't because they were annilhilated by Oklahoma in the next to last game of the season.
It's a beauty contest and Texas Tech tripped and fell on its face during the swimsuit competition.
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Joe Pawlikowski 7 months ago
I don't think they should count when it come to BCS rankings (even though they don't mean much to me personally). To say Utah is better than Texas Tech,Penn State, and even Ohio State for that matter is a joke, I see little merit in running the table in the WAC or Mountain West (i.e. Utah, Boise State, BYU, on and on). East Carolina was ranked earlier this year after they beat two quality opponents at the time. The schools I mentioned won't even attempt to play the tough schools in their out of conference schedules. I know Boise State beat Oklahoma in that "epic" Fiesta Bowl, but to me these teams still don't mean squat to me.
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Anthony Elias 7 months ago
Good point. But I also don't buy the argument that a team that has an identical record but didn't win a conference should be playing for the title instead of a Conference Champ.
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Eric Quackenbush 7 months ago
Errrrrrr... I sympathize with your statements and you make a good, logical, and creative argument. Unfortunately, like you said--it's wishful thinking. Hopefully we can make a run at it again next year or in two years--losing 17 seniors this year though is gonna hurt somethin' fierce though!!!
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Anthony Elias 7 months ago
I know...
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GatorJon 7 months ago
Lou is correct that the BCS popularity contest does not require a team to win their conference to be in the big game which I personally think is BS.
The BCS lost me when OU lost to K State in the Big12 CG and still played for the BCS title.
That really goes against a very fundamental aspect of college football for 115 out of the 119 FBS programs: winning your conference is the most important thing and it is what gets you into the big bowl games.
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Anthony Elias 7 months ago
I think so as well.
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Justin Williams 7 months ago
All these opinions and arguements can be settled with 1 word.....PLAYOFF!!!!
Top 8 teams and we will see who is the best in the country. No guessing, no speculation, no beauty contest, just some good 'ole college football action.
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Anthony Elias 7 months ago
Sigh.
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Darren Proett 7 months ago
If Missouri beats Oklahoma and Alabama beats Florida USC has a good chance of getting the nod because Texas will not be a conference champion and Missouri wont go with 2 or 3 losses (dont remember there record)... But if USC does go who plays PSU in the Rose?
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Anthony Elias 7 months ago
Good question. But I dont think we'll have to worry about it.
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