Most of you probably didn't see my preview of the Tigers and Yankees pitching matchup. I wanted to plug the Bill James Pitching Match-ups app again. I got it for the iPhone and now have every possible pitcher versus every possible hitter. This is huge when you are looking at huge games like tomorrow night. So we will take a quick look at how the starters and key relievers have done against the opposing hitters.
1. Roy Halladay—.237 (282 AB), 2 HR allowed, 12 walks, 61 Ks
Loves to Face: Yadier Molina (0 for 12)
Hates to Face: Lance Berkman (2 for 6, 2 HR)
2. Antonio Bastardo—.167 (24 AB), 2 HR allowed, 4 walks, 8 Ks
Loves to Face: Rafael Furcal (0 for 4, 2 walks)
Hates to Face: Yadier Molina (4 for 4, 2 HR)
3. Brad Lidge—.151 (166 AB), 2 HR allowed, 24 walks, 43 Ks
Loves to Face: Ryan Theriot (0 for 16, 2 walks)
Hates to Face: Albert Pujols (10 for 40, 2 HR, 8 walks)
4. David Herndon—.222 (27 AB), 0 HR allowed, 2 walks, 10 Ks
Loves to Face: Albert Pujols (0 for 2)
Hates to Face: Rafael Furcal (4 for 4)
5. Ryan Madson—.209 (196 AB), 1 HR allowed, 9 walks, 33 Ks
Loves to Face: Matt Holliday (4 for 30)
Hates to Face: Lance Berkman (6 for 20)
1. Chris Carpenter—.213 (267 AB), 6 HR allowed, 13 walks, 42 Ks
Loves to Face: Carlos Ruiz (0 for 8)
Hates to Face: Jimmy Rollins (12 for 40)
2. Marc Rzepcyznski—.345 (29 AB), 0 HR allowed, 4 walks, 2 Ks
Loves to Face: John Mayberry (0 for 4)
Hates to Face: Jimmy Rollins (4 for 4)
3. Octavio Dotel—.149 (101 AB), 0 HR allowed, 12 walks, 29 Ks
Loves to Face: Carlos Ruiz (0 for 10)
Hates to Face: Raul Ibanez (4 for 12, 4 walks)
4. Jason Motte—.275 (80 AB), 8 HR allowed, 4 walks, 20 Ks
Loves to Face: Carlos Ruiz (2 for 10)
Hates to Face: Placido Polanco (4 for 8, 2 HR)
5. Fernando Salas—.107 (56 AB), 0 HR, 6 walks, 14 Ks
Loves to Face: Raul Ibanez (0 for 6)
Hates to Face: Chase Utley (2 for 4)
Scouting the Phillies
It is unusual to see Halladay up against any starter that performs better than he does. So that has to worry Phillies fans. That being said, the Phillies have more relievers that have experienced success against the Cards than the Cards have on their side. I went only four deep for each side but they have more arms at their disposal, and in an elimination game you might see Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley come out of the pen as well.
Scouting the Cardinals
The Cardinals have the best starter of the two and they have the ninth inning nailed down with Fernando Salas. It will be the innings in between that will tell the tale. Tony LaRussa will almost certainly rely heavily on Octavio Dotel, but other than that the pickings are pretty thin. Neither Marc Rzepczynski, Mitchell Biggs nor Jason Motte inspire a lot of confidence with their numbers. LaRussa loves to play the matchups, but in this game it probably isn't a good idea.
The Phillies have a lineup capable of extending Carpenter on his pitch count. If they do that it should be enough to vault the Phillies into the NLCS. The Cardinals bullpen is just too shaky after Dotel and Salas. Roy Halladay can go the distance, but he doesn't need to. The Phillies have plenty of relievers that have experienced success against the Cardinals. I'm going with the Phillies, but the Cards have a good chance if Carpenter can go seven innings.
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