A No. 1 team is supposed to be the favorite, not the underdog.
The Las Vegas odds makers have installed Alabama, who is No. 1 in the BCS, as a 10-point underdog against Florida in the SEC Championship game Saturday.
Who are you going to believe? The BCS, who says Alabama is the best team in the country, or the odds makers who say Alabama isn't really that good?
I believe the people making the odds!
I believe that Alabama isn't close to being the best team in the country, and the only reason they are rated No. 1 by the BCS is because they are undefeated. This rating system just exposes the inadequacy of the BCS.
They don't even have the right undefeated team in the No. 1 position. Utah is clearly more deserving!
Utah has defeated two teams ranked in the BCS, while Alabama has only defeated one. The Utes beat No. 11 TCU and No. 18 BYU. Alabama has only beaten No. 16 Georgia.
In years past, one could make a case for Alabama on the basis of how tough it is to play in the SEC. This year, you can't say that, because the SEC is not a very good conference.
Who has Alabama beaten besides the three-loss Georgia Bulldogs? They beat Mississippi, Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU. With the exception of Ole Miss, every one of those teams had a sub-par year at best.
Auburn and Tennessee finished the regular season with losing records. Florida will be Alabama's first chance to prove they belong at the top.
If Alabama defeats Florida—and they certainly could—I and most everyone else would be proven wrong. But, I don't believe this will happen.
The Las Vegas odds makers—the real pollsters—have made it clear that they don't think much of Alabama. The 10-point margin on a neutral field is a huge.
The odds makers either know the Tide has too many weaknesses, or they just don't respect the fact that they are undefeated.
I think it's a little of both. They don't think Alabama can stay with the Gators at this point of the season, but they also aren't giving Alabama enough credit for winning every time they played.
One might say that Alabama has become the Rodney Dangerfield of college football—they just don't get any respect!
16 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment
Cody Dockens 7 months ago
Utah??? You think Utah has more credability as the #1 team.hah. I think Bama plays a much tougher schedule than the Utes. Bama played Georgia LSU Mississippi and Clemson while Utah played BYU Oregon St and TCU. Bama played 6 teams at or above .500 Utah 5. Bama played 5 teams with defenses in the top 30, Utah played 1. Bama played 1 opponent ranked in the top 25 on total offense, Utah 0. Alabama rankes 3 in deffense, Utah 18. Bama ranks Utah has a .92 turnover margin, Bama .83. Utah ranks 33 in offense Bama 53. Bama has played against the number 9,12,14, and 17 scoring defenses in the nation Utah the number 2 Bamais penalyzed an average of 4 times a game Utha, almost 7. Most of the stats, the vast majority indicate Bama is the better team. All I saw was your opinion. Bama is the underdog and rightfully so but I wouldn't put Utah within... 45 points of Florida. Bama defeated LSU who was ranked in the top 10 most of the year, and Mississippi who will be ranked by the end of the year, not to mention clemson who had a heck of a run at the end of the season and finished 7-5 where they should have been, they were overated by the polls.
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Kevin Fisher 7 months ago
Wow, who have we beat? Well lets see... Clemson, LSU, UGA and OlMis, UT and AU were all ranked at some point this season. And UGA#16 and Miss #22 are still ranked.. So that blows your Utah is better than thou argument... And the only team to beat them mighty GATORS and in the swamp i might add (olMiss) Well we beat them too...
Doesn't it remind you of 1992.. Them por Bama boys don't have a chance at Miami.. No offense at ALL.. "if they get within 14pts of them they should be proud" Well we know how that turned out..
Remember we've only trailed on the scorebord around 17 minutes this season.. (not game but season) I wouldn't take them odds....
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jeff kalafa 7 months ago
Kevin,
I've never heard of the #1 team in the country, undefeated, being a ten point underdog to another team with one loss.....This says the experts, the people who study the game and see everybody play while the coaches don't, don't think much of Alabama......Do you think USC or Texas would be a ten point underdog to Fla????They might be favored...............
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Crimson Hamma 7 months ago
I agree that the media is not giving Alabama any respect. However, the opinion of fans is a different story. Often Vegas will make odds in one direction or the other because they know that the press will jump on that bandwagon and that will be the side most likely to have a payout.
Vegas usually pads it by a few points. It started after we beat LSU and it was 8 then. By raising it to ten, Vegas is betting that Alabama fans will be overconfident and take the points.
I do agree however, that Alabama is not getting due respect. But that's the beauty of it. The Tide have silenced the naysayers all year long. To do it against Florida though, they're going to need to play a game as flawless as they did Saturday and they're going to need some turnovers.
1992 was the same scenario. Alabama had to beat Florida for the SEC. No one gave them a chance. After taking the SEC crown, no one gave us a chance to beat Miami.
Now I know that it was a different time and different team, but history has a tendency to repeat itself. Things go in cycles. If someone had told me at the beginning of the year that we would be 12-0 right now, I would have suggested that person seek psychiatric counseling.
However, after witnessing how hard these guys have worked, and with what tenacity they are playing with, I have no doubt that they are capable of beating anyone in the country. Also, if Bama makes it past Florida, they won't be beaten! The Big 12 are potent offensively but they give up a lot of points as well. I think every one of them are lopsided. They have never faced a defense like one would find in the SEC.
I'm skeptical that Alabama can beat Florida but I have no doubts as to whether they can beat Oklahoma or Texas convincingly.
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jeff kalafa 7 months ago
you have to look at the body of work a team has produced. Alabama squeeks by LSU/Fla destroys them.
Alabama hangs on against Geo/Fla destroys them. Alabama plays Clemson out of Conference/Fla plays FSU and Miami.
Yes Fla blew it against Ole Miss/Alabama hung on...................Maybe not having Harvin, the Gators should be an 8 or 9 point fave...
By the way, I think the spread actually went up half a point today.
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Crimson Hamma 7 months ago
With the exception of Ole Miss and LSU, none of our games were as close as the score indicated. Like I said, 1992 was the same scenario. Alabama didn't score much offensively then either but had the best scoring defense in the country and gave up very few points.
That year we had a much better defensive secondary though. I can't, in all honesty, compare the 2008 defense with the 1992 defense. If we WERE comparable to the '92 unit, Florida would be in trouble. I will say though, that defense wins championships. Alabama has a VERY good defense. Florida has not faced a defense like Bama's all year.
I don't care what anyone says about margin of victory and strength of schedule. If a team goes 12-0 in the SEC, it's not an accident, especially when that team has Georgia, Tennessee and LSU on the road.
Alabama is not an offensive team. But do have the ability to score. Alabama wins by attrition. We will just have to see if Florida's offense is better than Alabama's defense. It proved not to be in 1992 and the styles of the two teams were close. Shane Mathews didn't have the ability to rush like Teebow. If we beat Florida up front though, I don't think Teebow will go anywhere on the ground.
The tale will be told Saturday.
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Jared Cox 7 months ago
Listen to Jeff. Odds aren't made in Vegas to be exactly what the outcome will be, they are a combination of what the outcome will be and what they think people will bet on. They try to get people to bet evenly on the game, half one way, half the other, so they pay off one side with the other and make money on there take. They aren't making odds on what will actually happen, they are making odds on gamblers think will happen. Doesn't everybody know this, or are Jeff and I the only smart ones?
As far as Bama getting no respect, see my icon....
Oh and as far as Utah goes, KEEP DREAMING, the Big Ten and Big 12 can't handle the SEC, but you think Utah can? LMAO all the way to the SEC championship game.
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Jared Cox 7 months ago
Wow, a whole lotta votes, Bama is getting some respect on BR. ROLL TIDE!
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GatorJon 7 months ago
Looks to me like the odds makers looked at the Points For and Points Against stats for Florida and Alabama and came up with a reasonable spread. Its pretty straight forward.
The two defenses are giving up a similar amount of points but one offense is scoring considerably more than the other against the same competition. Florida averages 42 points per game, Bama is averaging 27. That is a 15 point difference.
If you assume both teams show up and play their "A" game then you would expect the two defenses to keep the offenses below their scoring average so the expected margin of victory wouldn't change much (but the expected variability might change). If you assume Bama will be able to slow the game down and that it will be a hard-hitting championship game then the expected margin of victory would be smaller than 15, but you would still expect Florida to score more than Alabama (remember the two defenses are pretty equal).
Florida by 10 seems about right to me.
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Chris Marks 7 months ago
Yes Bama fans tell me more about 1992. Posted this before and will continue posting it until Saturday: nobody on the 2008 Alabama team has anything whatsoever to do with the 1992 team. That team and that situation will not help you win on Saturday.
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john frye 7 months ago
i cant believe everyone but bama fans are blind. as far as your comment we played 1 ranked team.... bs when we played clemson they were # 9 im pretty sure ga was ranked when we played them and lsu was too so i guess you natsayers can keep on we will see what happens sat. no going back to 92 but you better believe these guys want this nc, they have worked hard, they have been told all season we couldn't beat so and so etc. i'm sick of the no respect but it's all good because come sat everyone in the country will see roll tide roll
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ryan brothers 7 months ago
all of the previous comment all have good points to them im not gonna bring the past in to play it doesnt matter if BAMA won 100 times against Florida its Saturday Dec. 6, 2008 that matters i believe both teams have a great shot this is only an opinion but i do think that Florida will be expecting a blowout and Bama will surprise them Florida has not played a challeging game yet nobody has made Florida work for it so i think that will be the determining factor Also Bama has something to work for . They are the said underdogs and have not been this far in years they have something to prove and i think they will do it . i just want someone to beat Florida i tired of seeing a classless team win. Nobody needs to win 70-19 to be counted as a win 40-19 would have been fine, and 56-6 they could have stopped at 36-6 this is a team with no respect and no class, even if they need style points thats not the way to win.
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bobby boerner 7 months ago
the only reason these talking heads play down the sec is because Alabama is the top dog , not their puppies or gators. So the best thing is to say that the sec isn't that good this year. remember the talking heads are like the big 3 media what they say goes and we know how wrong they can be. It's called downplaying the sec, so their conferences look good.
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Chris Marks 7 months ago
@John:
You don't count that Clemson was ranked when you played them. When you look back over Alabama's body of work do you REALLY think Clemson was deserving of that top 10 ranking? On the exact same token: Do you think Alabama was deserving of it's #24 ranking in that game? The answer to both questions is a big no. Alabama was obviously much better than #24 and Clemson was much worse than even top 30.
@bobby:
The SEC is in a down year though. I'm a big SEC fan and will always root for SEC teams when they aren't playing my team, but look at last weekend; The ACC (of all conferences) went 3-1 against the SEC. That's pathetic considering the ACC is one of the worst conferences. SEC needs to step it up in the bowl season this year or we may be surprised at the SEC's bowl record.
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john frye 7 months ago
it doesn't matter what i think of how all the teams ended up in the rankings or for that matter where they started, the awsome powers that be rank teams (although most of us could do better) we played ranked teams through the season. i think we should all take the saban approach 1 game at a time. i like that we have been underdogs i think the team does too. coach saban has given these guys a goal , and it looks to me like they are right on track. all the naysayers keep up the good work and the mighty crimson tide will just keep rolling. rtr
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Chris Marks 7 months ago
I'm not "naysaying" you. What I'm saying is the pollsters rank strength of schedule by the team's CURRENT rankings. Clemson is not a top ten team anymore and that's what you beat.
LSU was ranked #3 in the country when Florida beat them. Do you also think Florida should get credit for beating the number 3 team in the country when LSU was obviously not the #3 team? They lost 5 games and Florida doesn't and shouldn't count them as a win over a top 3 team. Just like Bama shouldn't count a win over Clemson as a win over a top 6 team.
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