I'll admit, I was fooled. Give me some credit though, how could I not have been impressed with a 5-1 start by the Buffalo Bills in my first year as a season ticket holder?
Yet, here we are, in Week 13, and the Bills lost miserably to the San Fransisco 49ers to drop to a 6-6 record. That means after the 5-1 start, the Bills have had a record of 1-5, including three losses to division rivals.
What happened, then?
I think part of the issue is that four of the five teams the Bills lost to run a 3-4 base defensive scheme. The Bills do not have a good center on the roster, and therefore the offensive line struggles to hold up at the point of attack.
The fifth team they lost to has a dominant defensive tackle who attacked the Bills through the center of the line as well. The Bills simply cannot hold up at the point of attack against a dominant defensive tackle in either a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme. That has to be one of the top priorities of the draft.
Melvin Fowler has shown the Bills nothing to be kept past this year. Duke Preston, on the other hand, can be kept as a backup if necessary, but he should not be starting either.
However, it is not simply the offensive line's fault the Bills lost five out of their last six. In the game against the 49ers, the offensive line looked pretty good most of the day, either in pass protection or in the run game, even against a 3-4 defense.
Yes, Losman was sacked multiple times in the second half. However, at least one of those was a coverage sack, and the rest of the time Losman got happy feet. At points, he looked lost back there.
No, a big part of the issue has been the play-calling. Remove the Kansas City Chiefs game from your memory. The play-calling has consistently been suspect. The game that started this skid, the loss to the Miami Dolphins, saw the Bills abandon the run game after their first drive of the second half, AFTER they scored a touchdown on a drive that consisted mostly of runs.
Honestly, and this is my opinion, I think that Turk Schonert is calling plays like a typical rookie plays his first season. He's shown flashes of being able to call drives, but sometimes he gets rattled and panics.
He needs to stick with the basics. The reason the Bills were able to win games at the beginning of the season was because the play-calling was designed to protect Trent Edwards. It's entirely possible Schonert became overconfident in Edwards' abilities after Edwards played brilliant football in consecutive games to lead the Bills to some thrilling comeback wins.
Is going back to the basics really the way to get the Bills back on track? Well, look at this way. Great teams are built around running the ball and stopping the run. If a team can do that, it's incredibly hard to beat them. It seems that Schonert at points has abandoned the run game too hastily and put too much on Edwards' shoulders. He's a second-year quarterback. He still needs time to develop.
Not all is doom and gloom at One Bills Drive, though. You might not know that if you talked to most Bills fans or spend some time on different message boards, but there are some positives.
11 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment
Craig Kanalley 7 months ago
Jeremy, good article. I liked your analysis. Just posted a write-up on the Bills remaining playoff scenarios..check it out.
Edit Comment Cancel
Jeff Putt 7 months ago
Jeremy, I don't think that the answer to the Bills problems are that complicated. The one thing that has been missing in the last 6 games is the pass rush. I can attribute this to one thing the injury to Arron Schobel. When and if Schobel ruturns to the line up I think you will see the Bills that we saw in the First 6 games of the season.
Edit Comment Cancel
Jeremy Pike 7 months ago
I think having Schobel back will definitely improve the Bills, but it won't cure all the Bills' ails. Look at the game yesterday. The defense only allowed 10 points, yet the Bills lost. Schobel wouldn't have won that game for us. The defense has played pretty well, but a pass rush would help so much more. There are a lot of issues on the offensive side of the ball that need to be fixed in order for us to be true playoff contenders. Thanks for the comment!
Edit Comment Cancel
Jarrod Seybolt 7 months ago
Great article. I think your article does a great job of pointing out weaknesses as compared to Jeff's comment which Im sure everyone would hope was that easy of a fix but he is wrong. Another position I think the Bills need to look at is kicker. In almost every kicker's career minus the amazing ones, they hit some turbulence and are usually let go, some recover some dont. Lindell I feel has just lost it and now has it in his head, missing an extra point length kick yesterday? Missiing a game winner against the Browns? Missing another 40 yard attempt yesterday? I understand the Bills did not play well enough to win against the Browns but they were in a position to and while the play calling failed us it still was a 47 yard field goal which I expect an NFL kicker to make. Thats what they are paid for.
The Bills need a linebacker and looking at free agents for this year it looks like they will need to find a free safety or strong safety depending on the route they take with whitner.
To me a sucessful end of the season would simply be winning against division opponents. I do not expect them to make the playoffs, they are not good enough. But wins against the division would at least show some hope because you cant go into next season figuring on losing six games.
Edit Comment Cancel
Jeremy Pike 7 months ago
Definitely beating division opponents now would improve my feelings on this team. That stretch really hurt us. I was at the Monday night game when Lindell missed the field goal. Part of the issue was that the wind was in his face, so he had to put more on it and it just pushed. Not all field goals are the same. The first miss yesterday was due to a high snap, which also happened to Moorman on one of his punts.
I don't know if I'd start looking for a kicker just yet. Give him to the end of the season to get out of this funk.
Thanks for the comment!
Edit Comment Cancel
Garrett Hirschman 7 months ago
Jeremy, I have to disagree with your 3-4 theory. Early the Bills struggled with containing the big man in the middle, but against New England, Cleveland, and San Francisco they have played well at the point of attack. The issue to me has been accounting for the linebackers. We have heard the Bills say all season long that teams play a lot of two deep zone. Well in the 3-4 it is hard to hit short passes over the middle with so many linbackers in coverage, that teams are forced to throw deep or to the check down. Trent Edwards has not been able to get the ball deep so he throws a lot of check downs which can be ineffective. To beat the 3-4 you have to run the ball well and draw the linebackers in so you can throw over them in the soft parts of the zone.
Edit Comment Cancel
Jeremy Pike 7 months ago
Garret, I do agree with you that they have played well against the big man in spots. However, they are still struggling to contain the big man consistently. Wilfork with New England still made some big plays and same with Shaun Rogers with Cleveland. However, against those two teams, they were able to hold them off most of the time. Against the Jets, they just couldn't stop Kris Jenkins.
Regarding the linebackers, those have been giving us fits, especially against Miami. Good call on that.
Now that you mention it, Edwards has been struggling against zone coverage. I think part of it is that the receivers aren't getting into the holes in the zone, but that may have something to do with the playcalling as well. Something will have to change down the stretch with that.
Thanks for your comment!
Edit Comment Cancel
Angel Navedo 7 months ago
Great breakdown, man. Leodis McKelvin is looking like he's going to be a shut down corner. Not a guy I wanna face twice a year, that's for sure.
Edit Comment Cancel
Jeremy Pike 7 months ago
Thanks! I've definitely been enjoying watching his game get better. I've seen some people calling him a bust before the Browns game, but I definitely think they've changed their tune. He's fast, he's getting a better grasp of the pro game, and he's fearless. Not to mention he's got hands. Gotta love it, he's going to be a valuable part of this defense for years.
Edit Comment Cancel
Jarrod Seybolt 7 months ago
Yeah I'm excited about McKelvin too. Seeing as how the Bills most likely will not resign Greer. The Bills have had some positives this season for sure but I just think they need some fresh names in the game to try and change things. I am not a fan of Schonert and think the Bills should look to get a successful veteran coordinator to replace him. Maybe then Edwards would come out of his shell.
Edit Comment Cancel
Jeremy Pike 7 months ago
I hope the Bills make an effort to keep Greer. Don't break the bank for him, but I'd like them to keep him. Imagine having McGee, Greer, McKelvin, and Youboty at cornerback. I like it. Schonert has some kinks to work, I think. He needs to gameplan better and not get away from the run so easily. Don't forget he is a rookie, so there are going to be growing pains, just like with Edwards.
Edit Comment Cancel
Leave a Comment
You must register to post a comment.