UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson Bleacher Report MMA Staff Predictions

In the sixth edition of the UFC Live on Versus series, Dominick Cruz defends his bantamweight title against Demetrious Johnson.  This is the first time a UFC title was up for grabs on free TV since Quinton Jackson defeated Dan Henderson to unify the Pride and UFC light heavyweight belts. 

In a welterweight bout, Anthony Johnson takes on Charlie Brenneman in a bout between two high-level wrestlers, where the winner will no doubt see a big boost in the rankings at 170 pounds.  

Pat Barry takes on Stefan Struve in a rare instance where there will be a one-foot height difference between the two fighters.  This one promises to be a hard-hitting heavyweight bout. 

The final bout on the main card features two scrappy lightweights in Mac Danzig and Matt Wiman in a rematch from last year.  Both guys are looking for blood and bragging rights in this one.  

This time around, the predictions team consists of four Bleacher Report MMA Featured Columnists: Dale De Souza, Jordy McElroy, Dwight Wakabayashi and myself, John Heinis. 

Take a look inside to see who is going to walk home with the "W" on Saturday night.  

Mac Danzig vs. Matt Wiman

John Heinis:  The winner of the sixth season of The Ultimate Fighter, Mac Danzig, has had a tough go in the UFC, with an overall record of 4-4.  He hasn't lost to any slouches though, losing decisions to guys like Jim Miller and Clay Guida.  

Danzig hasn't fought since quickly knocking out Joe Stevenson at UFC 124.  This fight with Wiman is actually a rematch from UFC 115, and it is well-deserved, given the almost freakishly controversial nature of the fight. 

"Handsome" locked in a guillotine and by all accounts it looked pretty tight, but Danzig never tapped or passed out, yet the ref stopped the fight.  Yea, I don't get it either.  

The rematch has been delayed for over a year, partially due to a reoccurring chest injury for Danzig, and partially because both guys have not been on the same fight schedule because of it. 

Given that the first fight told us nothing, it seems fair to evaluate both fighters as if they never met before. 

The fighters are very similar: two very good grapplers with decent hands that are tough as nails.  Danzig definitely has the better jiu jitsu game though.  

This one will be close, but I think Danzig will get his revenge in a minor upset. 

Mac Danzig via unanimous decision

Dale De Souza: So this fight happened at UFC 115, and it ended controversially because Matt Wiman had a choke locked in—specifically he had Danzig in a guillotine choke—but the consensus is that Mac Danzig was not in any real danger of tapping out, and on top of that, it was merely Danzig not responding that prompted Yves Lavigne to stop the fight.

Now, the two well-rounded fighters and TUF veterans meet in DC to settle this business, and the question is whether TUF Season Six winner Danzig will legitimately tap to the handsome pup from Season Five this time.

Wiman has good takedowns and even better submissions for a guy who is good in all areas but by no means considered an ace in one area.

Mind you, Danzig isn’t an ace in one specific area either, but he did knock the father, son and Holy Ghost out of TUF 2 winner Joe “Daddy” Stevenson the last time we saw him fight.

Should we expect another wicked KO from Danzig?

Not really, but anticipate Danzig letting his hands go and demobilizing Wiman enough to put him away in a fashion no less impressive than his knockout of Stevenson.

Mac Danzig by TKO (Strikes) at Round 1, 3:27

Jordy McElroy: This rematch is over a year in the making.

Matt Wiman walked away the victor in the first bout due to a premature stoppage by referee Yves Lavigne.

Caught in a guillotine choke, Mac Danzig calmed himself and tried to ride out the choke until Wiman’s arms tired, but Lavigne still called a halt to the action even though Danzig, who was still conscious, never tapped.

The rematch is finally upon us, and this bout doesn’t look much different from the first. Wiman and Danzig are evenly matched. On the feet, Danzig has always been a decent striker, but as shown in his most recent victory over former lightweight contender Joe Stevenson, his ability to utilize head movement and string together combinations continues to improve.

Wiman is a decent striker as well, but his overall advantage in this fight lies in the grappling department. He’s going to have to fight for every scramble.

Danzig is a wily veteran, and his ground game is up to par to deal with Wiman’s offensive assault.

As clone lightweights, Wiman is slightly the better version of the two. He may not be able to keep his looks intact, but “Handsome” will have his hand raised at the end of a grueling three-round battle.

Matt Wiman by Split Decision

Dwight Wakabayashi: Lightweight fighters Mac Danzig and Matt Wiman have some very unfinished business to take care of with each other and they will get their chance to do it in the opening bout of the main card.  

The two fought each other at UFC 115 in June of last year and the end saw Wiman score a victory via guillotine choke in the first round, however, it was an extremely controversial stoppage.

Wiman did have Danzig in what appeared to be a tight choke but Danzig was still conscious and did not tap out from the submission before referee Yves Lavigne called a stop to the fight. Danzig immediately jumped up in disbelief but the damage had been done.  

Wiman followed up that fight with a win over Cole Miller then lost a razor-thin decision to German Dennis Siver. He will be looking to win convincingly this time to avoid a judges controversy and wipe out the doubt over whether he is really better than Danzig.

This fight should settle the score between these two. Both guys are on the cusp of becoming Top 15 to Top 10 guys in the division and Danzig may be more desperate to make that jump than Wiman.  

I see Danzig coming out faster in this fight to ensure he is ready for Wiman's fast starts, and he will look to strike with pace and possibly take Wiman down right away.

Danzig does have a slight advantage in ground and technical striking while Wiman is quicker, hungrier and more courageous fighter.  

Danzig is coming off a knockout of Joe Stephenson and will look to really build some momentum to push him up in the pecking order.  

Matt Wiman via unanimous decision

Anthony Johnson vs. Charlie Brenneman

John Heinis: What are the odds that "Rumble" either gets hurt before Saturday night or doesn't make weight? Let's just say I wouldn't be surprised.

The massive welterweight returned after about a year-and-a-half layoff to defeat Dan Hardy back in March, easily out-wrestling the Brit en route to a unanimous decision victory.

If one recalls, Johnson was actually supposed to be the one taking on Nate Marquardt at UFC on Versus 4, but well, we know what happened there.

As-last-minute-as-it-gets-fill-in Charlie Brenneman eventually upset Rick Story on that card, and catapulted himself into the conversation at 170 pounds.

"The Spaniard" comes into this fight with a respectable 14-2 record, with his only UFC loss coming from his being knocked out against Johny Hendricks.

However, if Johnson actually shows up healthy, I don't see him losing to Brenneman.  As much of a great, strong wrestler Story is, Johnson is a more of a threat in both departments.

Rumble is also a much better striker with better finishing ability than Story.

I've got my fingers crossed that Johnson doesn't need to be stretchered into the weigh-ins because of dehydration and that he doesn't pull a hamstring on the way to the cage.

Anthony Johnson via third round KO

Dale De Souza: To say “Charlie Brenneman’s performance as a last-minute replacement for a released Nate Marquardt against a still-game Rick Story was nothing short of electrifying, despite Story’s best efforts” would be an understatement within an understatement.

It certainly beat the snoozer that was the three-round struggle Anthony “Rumble” Johnson had in trying to finish—but ultimately coasting and holding top position and all variants thereof against—Dan Hardy.

All personal jabs and digs aside, Johnson’s wrestling did control Hardy and it did thoroughly neutralize Hardy’s stand-up game, but against Brenneman, Johnson is facing an equally competent wrestler, while Brenneman gets arguably the most menacing punching power he’s ever had to get past.

Yes, Story was a wrestler, but he clearly prepped for Marquardt and didn’t think he’d ever face anything like what Brenneman brought.

Again though, Johnson is not Story.

He has power in his hands and he’s got some upper body strength to give Brenneman hell, but to think Brenneman can’t win two fights in a row against clearly good competition is absurd, especially considering what “The Spaniard” can do.

I’m going to go with the spoiler happening again, as Johnson’s cardio causes him to run on fumes and prove himself unable to do anything significant against Brenneman’s aggressive wrestling-based onslaught, but this time out, Brenneman gets a “W” and he might just stop being ignored at 170 pounds.

Charlie Brenneman by TKO (elbows) at 2:44 of Round 3

Jordy McElroy: Coming off a huge upset win over Rick Story, Charlie Brenneman will have an opportunity to establish himself as a legit welterweight contender when he meets Anthony “Rumble” Johnson.

When it comes to wrestling, Brenneman is a technical stud with a relentless mentality. He understands that wrestling is his bread and butter, and he rarely deviates from that aspect.

His wrestling worked wonders against Story, who was seemingly taken down at will at UFC on Versus 4.

Things aren’t likely to go over so smoothly against Johnson, an explosive grappler with one-punch knockout power.

Brenneman has to weather the storm in the early rounds and draw this bout out into a grueling 15-minute battle of stamina.

As long as Brenneman stays persistent with his grappling, he may be able to wear Johnson down as the fight progresses.

With that said, Johnson may be too tough an act to follow after such a huge and emotional win over Story.

Brenneman may steal the final round, but the first couple of rounds will be all Johnson, as he batters “The Spaniard” on the feet and nabs a few takedowns of his own.

Despite a strong start, Johnson will start to fade late in the second round, and the tide will start to turn.

Still, “Rumble’s” early dominance will be enough to sway the minds of the judges.

Anthony Johnson by unanimous decision

Dwight Wakabayashi: This could be another prime matchup of striker vs grappler, and I like Brenneman's chances of taking this fight to the floor, but will he be able to keep Johnson there to win the fight?

I say he will and Johnson will not be able to get into his striking rhythm in this one. Brenneman will look to use the same game plan as he did against Rick Story in his impressive win over the youngster.  

Johnson will look to hurt Brenneman with kicks to every part of his body and will mix some movement and strikes in there to try and break The Spaniard down.

I see Johnson scoring a couple painful, effective strikes, but once he gets comfortable and close to a rhythm, Charlie will withstand enough to take it to the floor.  

Johnson is the bigger man of the two, but I do see him having more of a striker's mindset in this one, and that will be his downfall in the end.  

Charlie Brenneman via split decision

Pat Barry vs. Stefan Struve

John Heinis: This should be a fun, albeit not a particularly relevant, fight at
heavyweight.  

"Hype or Die" is 2-2 in his past four fights, with his last fight being a once-in-a-lifetime type knockout loss to CheickKongo at the UFC's last Versus event in June.

Barry is one of the most well-liked and charismatic personalities in the UFC, but despite training at Brock Lesnar's Death Clutch camp on several occassions, his game is all stand up.

Struve is also 2-2 in his past four fights, losing everytime he's seen a step up in competition in the UFC.

"The Skyscraper" will have a foot on Pat Barry (6'11" vs. 5'11"), something very rarely seen in combat sports.  That comes with a nine-and-a-half inch reach advantage.

Despite that fact, I'm still going with Barry.  While Struve has come out victorious in some wars, all of his losses are to guys with knockout power.

Four of the five losses were also by knockout.

Barry may be extremely inconsistent, but a loss here would likely be the end of his UFC run, and I just don't see that happening right now.

Pat Barry via second round KO

Dale De Souza: Pat “HD” Barry is a fighter worth watching at 265 pounds, and even if you hate Brock Lesnar, you have to admit that Lesnar has one hell of a camp in the DeathClutch team—one that has helped Barry improve on the skills he expertly honed in Milwaukee at Roufusport.

So far, though, Barry is 1-2 against kickboxer-type fighters, having lost to Cheick Kongo and Mirko Cro Cop, while winning against Antoni Hardonk—who is responsible for the career resurrection of Jared Hamman—and having to deal with the height and reach of Stefan “The Skyscraper” Struve, the second Dutch kickboxer to have had a UFC bout with Barry and the youngest Dutch kickboxer to fight Barry, does not make this any easier.

I would be surprised if any man’s ground game showed, although I will admit that it’s more a question with Barry than it is with Strive.

However, to make Barry tap, you have to get Barry to the ground first, and although Struve is still a prospect with the potential to do big things in MMA, he will still have one problem to contend with.

Barry’s size in reference to height, although conspicuously less than Struve’s, works to Barry’s edge, meaning he can pour on the leg kicks and the body shots without stopping.

This is one fight that sucks because someone has to win and the other has to lose, but going with my gut means Barry’s height—not Struve’s height—makes all the difference as The Skyscraper gets chopped down a few levels and collapses at the crushing blow of the HD wrecking ball. 

Pat Barry by KO (Leg Kicks, Body Punch, and Strikes) at 4:35 of Round 1

Jordy McElroy: Both reeling from embarrassing highlight reel knockout losses, Pat Barry and Stefan Struve will enter the octagon on Saturday night with bad intentions.

It’s still rather mind-boggling how Barry lost to Cheick Kongo at UFC on Versus 4. His punches had Kongo stumbling around the octagon like a town drunk, but an overzealous approach cost Barry big as he ate a desperate Kongo haymaker trying to finish.

Meanwhile, Struve fell victim to an incredible superman punch from Travis Browne at UFC 130, which could very well end up earning honors for knockout of the year.

The game plans are fairly simple for both men in this bout. Struve hopes to use his incredible height and reach advantage to pummel Barry from a distance.

If he can cut off Barry’s angles and get the fight against the fence, look for Struve to cinch up the Thai plum and go to work with knees.

Against a much taller opponent, Barry’s best friend will be his overhand. He has to find a way to close the distance and unload in the pocket on Struve, who has shown multiple signs of a shaky chin in the past.

Struve is often deemed the comeback kid. Despite taking a beating in every fight, he seems to always will himself back into the bout and find a way to win.

Heart won’t even be a factor in this fight when Barry connects with a haymaker in the second round.

Pat Barry by Round 2 KO

Dwight Wakabayashi: Stefan Struve is due for a positive result in a big fight in the Octagon, while Pat Barry may be vulnerable due to past wars.

His war with Cheick Kongo was incredible, but can Barry continue to take so much reckless punishment? He is a punishing fighter who loves to stand and bang, but with the reach of Struve, he will surely eat some leather before he closes that distance.  

Stefan Struve needs to step up and show the improvement that many have been looking for for so long and I believe that this is the perfect match up for him to do that.

Barry hits much harder and with much more intention than Struve, but Struve can strike for accuracy and I see him landing and wearing Barry down with cumulative damage before landing the fight-ending strike in the third.  

Struve is too talented and due for something good to lose this one. He is close to being on the bubble in the UFC and is hungry to get back on track.

Barry is a fan favorite everywhere he goes due to his exciting, reckless style, but it is that style that will enable Struve to beat him this time.  

Stefan Struve via 3rd round KO

Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson

John Heinis: Bantamweight champ Dominick Cruz has won nine in a row, with his most
recent outing at UFC 132 being a win that avenged his only career loss to Urijah Faber.

Not to take credit away from "Might Mouse"—he's a solid fighter, but Johnson mainly has a shot at the gold right now due to a lack of depth at bantamweight.

Johnson only has one loss as well, but compared to nine wins, and his best competition came in his most recent outing against Miguel Torres.

Many felt Torres won that fight, and we can argue all day about who should've got the decision, but the fact that it was close is why Johnson doesn't have a chance against Cruz.

"The Dominator" hasn't seen a real challenge from anyone outside of Faber, since he has pretty decent boxing and basically no one at 135 has matched his wrestling.

Johnson has a chance to take Cruz down, but I can't see him holding him down for five rounds or finishing, so I feel like this one is another concrete decision by Cruz.

Dominick Cruz via unanimous decision

Dale De Souza: Dominick Cruz is not an easy guy to like, but he is the UFC bantamweight champion, and he is facing a super-aggressive wrestler with unrelenting ground and pound in one Demetrious Johnson.

The Matt Hume product from AMC Pankration works fast and works convincingly, and while some are disappointed that he had to defeat the great Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto at UFC 126 while others dispute his UFC 130 win over Miguel Torres, the fact is that he did convince fans that he had won the fight—even if some still disagree.

The disagreements are irrelevant in the battle between the striker Cruz and the wrestling mastemind Johnson, the latter of whom has one frustrating stand-up game of his own.

Demetrious Johnson does have all the tools it takes to convincingly beat Cruz, and that is something nobody should question, but there is one other thing we must realize:

Dominick Cruz is still UFC bantamweight champion for a reason, and that reason might have something to do with his elusive, yet active, “hit-and-run” style of striking offense.

Cruz hasn’t knocked many out with it, if anyone, but while he doesn’t seem to even rock many people out with his offense, he does throw it enough to hurt some people with it while making himself seem like he’s actively searching for the kill.

Johnson may give up some height and some reach to Cruz, but he’s not a glass-jawed tune-up fight for any bantamweight, and it will be difficult for Cruz to land a kill shot unless he throws a wicked head kick to Johnson’s chrome-dome.

It’s difficult to say how this one will go, but if a better-than-the-best Dominick Cruz is fighting a better-than-the-best Demetrious Johnson, Cruz will dictate the first and third rounds, while Johnson controls the second and fourth rounds.

That twenty-fifth and final minutes might be the toughest round to score, but rest assured, we will demand a rematch after this one is history

Dominick Cruz by Split Decision (48-47 x2, 48-47 Johnson)

Jordy McElroy: A free UFC title fight is a great treat for MMA fans, but these guys deserve much more than that.

The bantamweight division is easily one of the most exciting weight classes in the sport, and it would’ve been nice to see this bout headline or at least co-headline a UFC pay-per-view.

With that said, fans should expect fireworks galore when Dominick Cruz defends his UFC title against Demetrious Johnson.

Coming off an epic decision win over Urijah Faber, Cruz will have his hands full with Johnson: a strong, technical wrestler with an ever-improving standup.

Johnson showcased his world-class grappling abilities in UFC victories over bantamweight legends Miguel Torres and Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto.

Cruz will be an incredibly tough matchup for Johnson, who is dwarfed by just about every bantamweight on the UFC roster.

At 5'3" tall, Johnson has to find a way to overcome the barriers of height and outland one of the most elusive fighters in the game.

Cruz utilizes a lot of jerking motions as he dances in and out of the pocket. His head is never in the same place, and he pushes forward with offense at multiple angles.

Johnson’s striking has come along quite nicely, but he still lacks the technical IQ to stand and trade with Cruz for five rounds. He’ll have to use his striking to disguise his wrestling, which is easily the best tool at his disposal.

Johnson may have the most explosive shot in all of MMA, but unfortunately for the Kentucky native, Cruz has the wrestling chops to fend off takedowns and possibly secure some of his own.

This should be a fun fight, and it’ll give fans one of the better main events of the year. Look for Cruz to outwork Johnson in a game of speed chess for a unanimous decision.

Dominick Cruz by unanimous decision

Dwight Wakabayashi: Dominick Cruz is the division king and is coming off an impressive title defense vs Urijah Faber. Cruz has many ways that he could possibly win this fight on his feet or on the ground.  

Demetrius Johnson is debatably the number one contender for the title and really only has one way to win this fight. Taking Cruz down and keeping top control on him for the majority of the fight.  

These two statements are all you really need to know in this one as I see Cruz being way too versatile and unpredictable to lose this fight. If Johnson is able to take Cruz down all night, I see it as one of the biggest title upsets in UFC history.  

I see Cruz frustrating Johnson with movement and reach all night, but I do believe that he will want to make a statement in this one and end it, so watch for Cruz to set his feet and throw bombs at times in order to get the knockout over a shooting Johnson.  

Dominick Cruz by third-round KO

Fight Bonuses

John Heinis: Fight of the Night - Cruz vs. Johnson

Knockout of the Night - Anthony Johnson

Submission of the Night - Paul Sass

Dale De Souza: Fight of the Night - Cruz vs. Johnson/Easton vs. Bloodworth

Knockout of The Night - Joseph Sandoval OR Yves Edwards

Submission of the Night - Paul Sass (IF he defeats Michael Johnson)

Jordy McElroy: Fight of the Night - Cruz vs. Johnson

Knockout of the Night - Pat Barry

Submission of the Night - Josh Neer

Dwight Wakabayashi: Fight of the Night: Wiman vs. Danzig

Knockout of the Night: Dominick Cruz

Submission of the Night: Rafaello Oliveira