Week 14 NCAA Predictions
Scores from every upcoming game
November 24, 2008
Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason, preview are located here.
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The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.
The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.
Game of the Week: No. 1 Oklahoma 45 @ No. 8 Oklahoma State 39
I am going to wait until next week to explain who I think should represent the Big 12 South in the Big 12 Championship game (don't sleep on Texas Tech). Why the wait? Because everything could change this weekend.
Bedlam. Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State is not one of those rivalry games played on a neutral field. After such a huge game and without two weeks to prepare for another very unique team, Sooners have to travel to Stillwater to face an in-state, top 10 opponent with the national spotlight and the quest for respect on its mind.
That sounds a lot like what happened to Texas when the Longhorns went to Lubbock.
In that game, our projection had Texas winning by six points on average. This week, we have OU winning by that same margin at 45-39.
The Sooners are a slightly stronger favorite than Texas was, as they emerge victorious 74.2 percent of the time in the simulations. With Texas and Texas Tech wins more than 90 percent likely, there is a 36.4 percent chance that one of the Big 12 South teams that is currently tied loses this weekend.
Other Notable Games in Week 14
For the second straight week, it seems like we could include every game here. In the rivalry games, No. 17 Oregon State secures its Rose Bowl berth with a Civil War victory over Oregon 70.9 percent of the time by an average score of 28-19, and West Virginia exacts revenge on Pitt in the Backyard Brawl, winning 65.2 percent of the time by a score of 22-18.
No. 6 Alabama (vs. Auburn) and No. 2 Florida (@ No. 21 Florida State) rout in-state rivals 95 percent of the time, No. 19 Georgia Tech falls to No. 12 Georgia in a shootout 35-20, and No. 11 Missouri cruises into the Big 12 Championship with a 42-24 win over Kansas.
In other games of major BCS significance, Boston College sneaks by Maryland at home 58 percent of the time, No. 13 Ball State blows out Western Michigan 42-23, No. 9 Boise State does the same to Fresno State on its home blue turf, and most importantly, No. 18 Cincinnati wins the Big East 95 percent of the time (actually 96.7 percent with West Virginia's chance of losing) with a victory over Syracuse 38-9.
Week 14 Scores for Every FBS Game
| Matchup | Home Win% | Avg Score |
|---|---|---|
| Syracuse @ Cincinnati | 95 | 8-39 |
| Colorado @ Nebraska | 95 | 12-41 |
| Texas A&M @ Texas | 95 | 13-53 |
| Notre Dame @ USC | 95 | 5-48 |
| Auburn @ Alabama | 95 | 5-36 |
| Mississippi State @ Mississippi | 95 | 9-37 |
| Fresno State @ Boise State | 95 | 14-41 |
| Washington St. @ Hawaii | 95 | 8-32 |
| W. Michigan @ Ball State | 91.7 | 23-42 |
| Baylor @ Texas Tech | 90.2 | 24-42 |
| Kansas @ Missouri | 88.6 | 24-42 |
| UCLA @ Arizona St. | 88.1 | 9-25 |
| Tulane @ Memphis | 86.1 | 17-33 |
| GA Tech @ Georgia | 82.8 | 20-35 |
| Virginia @ Virginia Tech | 79.1 | 8-18 |
| Vanderbilt @ WF | 76.5 | 7-16 |
| Kentucky @ Tennessee | 73.7 | 8-16 |
| Kent St. @ Buffalo | 73.3 | 21-30 |
| S. Carolina @ Clemson | 71.4 | 10-18 |
| Oregon @ Oregon State | 70.7 | 19-28 |
| Fla. Int. @ Florida Atlantic | 64 | 18-25 |
| UTEP @ East Carolina | 63.8 | 19-26 |
| Bowling Green @ Toledo | 60.1 | 17-23 |
| Maryland @ Boston College | 58 | 14-18 |
| New Mexico State @ Utah State | 51.6 | 21-24 |
| UAB @ UCF | 50 | 16-19 |
| Navy @ Northern Illinois | 46.6 | 25-27 |
| Miami (FL) @ NC St. | 44.8 | 18-17 |
| Akron @ Temple | 40.8 | 23-22 |
| W. Virginia @ Pittsburgh | 34.8 | 22-18 |
| Houston @ Rice | 28.8 | 38-33 |
| Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State | 25.8 | 45-39 |
| LSU @ Arkansas | 25.2 | 26-19 |
| C. Michigan @ E. Michigan | 16 | 32-22 |
| S. Miss @ SMU | 13.1 | 32-19 |
| Nevada @ Louisiana Tech | 12.7 | 31-17 |
| Ohio @ Miami (OH) | 12.2 | 24-11 |
| North Carolina @ Duke | 8.5 | 28-13 |
| Florida @ Florida State | 5 | 43-14 |
| Tulsa @ Marshall | 5 | 44-18 |
| Arkansas St. @ North Texas | 5 | 42-12 |
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