After last Saturday's 14-5 record against the spread and 7-2 mark in games I gave a confidence rating of 7 or higher, I'm ready to put it on line for another weekend of action.
As we wind down the season it really has been an amazing journey to reflect upon on this day of giving thanks. While up until a few months ago I had a newsletter that was very lightly distributed through email chains of forwards, it has grown into a community of some of the most educated college football fans I have ever come across.
While we don't always agree or cheer each other on, we do respect one another and use facts to back up our points which is something that gets left behind at a lot of places.
While for at least the near term you aren't going to stumble across a fluff piece here and we aren't going to let something slide because someone uses a word or two that we need to look up in the dictionary, we do what the The College Football Place was intended to do, just "get real about college football".
As our forum membership gets bigger by the minute, with our free newsletter and picking contest growing exponentially by the day, and our monthly viewership getting close to a half a million, we have far surpassed any goals I had for the site at this point in time and I am grateful.
While I think at some point my goal was to become part of a larger and more established site, now I am content to work with some other smart people to build our own community that can stand side by side with the biggest sites in the industry and according to Google, in some searches, we've already passed them; pretty amazing stuff and a lot to be thankful for.
Anyways, before I get too gushy around the holidays, we have some real rivals about to trade helmet paint this weekend and there isn't going to be a lot of love in the air. We covered a lot of ground with our first two sets of picks and we'll continue on with more of the great games on tap for this week.
Texas -35 Vs. Texas A&M (Thursday 11/27/08, 8 EST) 7 out of 10
For Thanksgiving night the boys at ESPN decided to deliver to the public a real Turkey of a game that is bound to lay an egg. Texas A&M has been nothing short of horrible defensively as they rank 113th in the country in total points allowed and 114th in total yards allowed.
While their major deficiency is against the run where they give up well over 200 yards per game, I look for Longhorn QB Colt McCoy to carve up their secondary and serve it up on a platter with a side of mashed potatoes.
The Texas secondary has been beatable but the Aggies don't have anything to attack it with. I don't expect these Pilgrims and Indians to sit down over a meal and decide to coexist; these two teams and fan bases do not like each other.
Texas is 8-3 against the spread this year while Texas A&M has only covered 4 times in 11 tries. The home team has dominated in this series going 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings.
Aside from covering 5 of the last 6 times these two have met, Texas is 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 overall. Texas is also 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 following an against the spread win and is 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 following a straight up win.
Texas A&M is 1-4 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record and are 0-5 against the spread the last 5 times they have teed it up on a Thursday.
This is a huge spread for what is a rivalry game but I believe the Longhorns score early and often and run it up against the Aggies in front of their home crowd.
See the rest of Mitch's week 14 part 3 college football picks against the spread.