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There are few teams in the country with a resume like Texas, but odds are a good resume won't put place the Horns' in Miami on January 8. Sure the Mack Brown's team is ranked No. 2 but it will take a slew of events to keep them in the driver's seat...

Why Texas Will Be the Next Team to Get Left Out of the BCS Title Game

by Gregory Sharpe (Scribe)

17

969 reads

Preview/Prediction

November 26, 2008


There are few teams in the country with a resume like Texas, but odds are a good resume won't put place the Horns' in Miami on January 8.

Sure the Mack Brown's team is ranked No. 2 but it will take a slew of events to keep them in the driver's seat.  Sure in the past Texas has controlled their own destiny but this season is slightly different.  So let's get to the meat of this equation.

October 11:  Texas hangs around after being down early against Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl, puts the clamps on Sam Bradford in the second half and takes down the then No. 1 ranked Sooners. Horns' jump to the top spot.

October 18:  Texas puts the first 35 points on the board against Chase Daniel, blasting Mizzou 56-31.  (The game was not as close as the scores makes it seem.)  'Horns stay No. 1.

October 25:  Undefeated Oklahoma State rolls into Austin and plays tough, but still rolls out a loser 28-24. (This one was as close as the score makes it seem.)  Still No. 1.

November 1:  Texas goes to Lubbock to play the Red Raiders.  Brian Orakpo and Quan Cosby both go down with injuries.  The Longhorns play their worst game of the year, only to stage a comeback and take the lead with a little over a minute left on the clock.  Graham Harrell completes a pass to Michael Crabtree with three seconds remaining.  Crabtree shakes off an arm tackle and struts into the endzone with one second left.  Texas falls 33-39.  Drop to No. 4.

So Tech jumps to No. 2, Oklahoma quietly moves to No. 5, Texas drops to No. 4. 

Seemed like the whole thing would figured itself out.  Most of the nation assumed the Tech/Oklahoma matchup would be close.  If Tech were to barely edge out the Sooners then they would be on their way to the BCS Championship Game.  If OU squeaked by Tech, most of the country probably would still think Texas was the better team so there would be no argument.  But just to further prove the NCAA needs a playoff, Oklahoma smashes Tech 65-21 in Norman this past Saturday.  And now the fun begins.  Three teams with identical overall and conference records:

So it seems simple, Tech barely beats a wounded Texas team that played terrible in Lubbock.  The Sooners play well but still lose to Texas by 10 on a  neutral field.  OU bashes Tech at home.  Seems fairly simple, Texas won on a neutral and just scored too soon in their away game.  OU didn't play a tough away game this year and lost in Dallas.  Tech was dismantled in their only away test this year and were the beneficiary of bad tackling on a nearly un-tackle-able player. 

Texas moves to No. 2 in the BCS, OU hops to No. 3 and Tech falls to No. 7.

As of now Texas owns the BIG XII South tie-breaker due to their higher BCS ranking.  But...

OU goes to Stillwater this weekend for their Bedlam Series with Oklahoma State.  If the Sooners put the hammer down on Oklahoma State (who Texas was able to beat by just four points) in anywhere near the same fashion they did Tech then presumably Bob Stoops and his team will be on their way back to the Big XII Championship Game for the sixth time in 12 years.

Author Poll

Which represents the South in the Big XII Championship Game?

  • Horns'
  • Sooners
  • Red Raiders
vote to see results
Author Poll Results

Which represents the South in the Big XII Championship Game?

  • Horns'

    76.1%
  • Sooners

    20.4%
  • Red Raiders

    3.5%
  • Total votes: 113
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17 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment

  1. ...

    Texas had its destiny in its own hands and couldn't close the deal against Texas Tech. They are lucky the BCS is giving them a any kind of second chance. Stop whining about it. It's bad sportsmanship. If your defense hadn't allowed a 99 yard drive for a touchdown with 9 seconds left, you'd be in the NC game.

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      And also, if Texas hadn't just come off of 3 straight weeks of playing top-11 opponents, which might rank as the hardest schedule in college football in around 60 years, they'd be in the national championship game too. Y'know, just in case anyone who wishes to deride the accomplishments of a team that was supposed to be rebuilding.

      Texas came within one play of becoming the first team in the history of college football to beat 4 top-11 opponents in one season. Much less back-to-back-to-back-to-back. I'll let that sink in a bit.

      Texas' loss, although it was because of key errors and a dropped interception-turned-touchdown-on-the-next-play, is easily the most "defensible" loss in the entire country. Period. There is no debate.

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      Vincent, I know I was being a little tough on Texas there. Sorry about that. You might be interested in a system I developed to "judge" the BCS beauty contest.

      http://bleacherreport.com/articles/76587-a-system-for-judging-the-bcs-beauty-contest

      Honestly, it's a tough one this year. Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma were actually able to "settle it on the field", but they basiccally all beat each other and tied.

      My point is that now they have to just toss a coin to decide who goes. You just have to accept that in the BCS if you don't go undefeated, you lose control of your destiny. I'm a Florida fan, once we lost to Ole Miss I accepted the fact that I no longer had a right to argue for NC game inclusion. If I make it, I'm lucky. Florida blew it when they lost to Ole Miss. I'm thankful that they have the opportunity to be reconsidered.

      Let's face it. You've been watching playoffs for a long time. The results of those games are screwy sometimes too. A blown call, a tipped pass, a guy's foot goes out of bounds by a centimeter and you're out too.

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  2. ...

    Right now, Oklahoma runs the Big XII South, standing wise. But if Texas was better, why didn't they put the Longhorns above the Sooners?

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      The Longhorns are above the Sooners in terms of BCS points. And that's simply because of the computer numbers that the Horns have accumulated as a result of the Murderer's Row of a schedule they had to endure.

      The Sooners, should they win against OSU in Stillwater, will pass the Longhorns in the BCS. It's a shame. It really is. Voters are fickle, stupid, and easily manipulated depending on who is perceived to be the "hot" team at the moment. This is also the only reason that Florida is even in the discussion, but that's neither here nor there.

      There should be no debate, even though there is going to be. The simple answer as to who to send to the Big XII Championship? 45-35. End of story.

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      Because of Texas Tech's loss to Oklahoma, and Oklahoma's loss to Texas, it will always be controversy in regards to the Big XII. But even if Texas makes it to the BCS Championship, just how good can they be against either Alabama or Florida.

      And the Gators are in the conversation because they're in the SEC Championship with the chance to beat the #1 team in the country. Even with the win, the best they're doing is #2.

      And in BCS terms, #2 is just as good as #1 because #2 goes to the BCS Championship. Therefore, Florida wins the SEC title +a finish of 12-1= a trip to Miami for the BCS Championship Game.

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    This is extremely gay............ Tech gets screwed......then Texas......next will be Oklahoma this is why they need to have the BCS bracket style

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    texas beat oklahoma but not by much! tech beat texas but not by much. oklahoma made tech look like a just any other teaqm and destroyed them!!! That s the main difference! They beat Oklahome state by a lot they deserve the shot at Florida! Florida who some people say don t deserve to be in the finals, is playing the most inspired football of all! If anyone has watched this team they know Florida is perhaps better than the three big 12 teams because of one word! Defense!!!! That will be the difference in the BCS championship! No one will shut down Florida s offense. Will they shut down Oklahoma s?? That s the question! I think they will! I havn t mentiones Alabama in this equation because i think they have no chance of beating Florida!!!! NONE! Soon this game will be played thabk god and i won t have to hear the Bama fans saying how wrong I am. I like to analyze and make predictions! I am not loyal to any college team and i am a homer to no one. I just like calling the action correctly! Alabama has had glaring lapses of concentration and bad halves in 3-4 games which they pulled them out! You cannot lapse for 1 minute against Florida or they will make the other team pay dearly! The speed of the offense and defense is the most impressive part of this florida team. And i know it sounds redundant but Tebow promised the whole country they would play with all their hearts and soul after the one loss. Guess what, they have. AS far a motivational leader of a team, that should weigh heavily come Heisman time. Bradford probably deserves it on a skills level but Tebow has shown what a winner acts like, especially after facing diversity during this seasons campaign. I ve said for 2 months now, Florida is your next National Champion in college football. Mark my words! thomas

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    Texas better be glad that Murray wasn't confident in his knee yet. With a running game, OU could have beaten the Longhorns. Then there would be no discussion about this. However, Texas did win head-to-head against the Sooners. That's why winning that game is so important. Both teams rarely lose more than one conference game.

    That said, if OU wins convincingly against the Cowboys, they will have the best road win of the three teams. You criticized OU's easy road schedule, but Texas has lost their only tough road game of the season. If OU can't make excuses with Reynolds' injury in Dallas, Texas can't make excuses with Cosby and Orakpo in Lubbock. It goes both ways.

    Even though Tech's reputation was severely injured last week, there is a three way tie for 1st in the Big 12 South, and not a two team race. Mathematically, a loss is a loss is a loss. Voters will rate team's losses differently, but my whole point is that you can't simply look at one head-to-head matchup and determine a South champion. There are three of those that got us into the mess we're in: 45-35, 39-33, and 65-21.

    And I've heard some people call the Longhorns pretenders after their loss in Lubbock. Ha! Texas is still a very talented and dangerous team, and would be a tough matchup for anyone. Anyone. I still believe that Texas deserves a BCS bowl, and I can't see the Fiesta passing on the Horns for an at-large if they don't get to the NCG.

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    I agree with Daniel about Oklahoma.... of the three BIG XII teams, they have the largest margin of victory between the three of them after trouncing Tech, and if, IF, they go in and beat down OSU, it will be the most impressive ROAD victory of the three. Coupled together, Oklahoma's resume is the best between the three.

    Thomas, while I AM inclined to agree with you on Florida's Talent, Speed, etc. I am not convinced that Alabama has no chance against them. Afterall, at the time, 'bama wasn't going to go in and compete with Georgia, and yet they hammered the bulldogs... I do feel that Florida can blow them away, but it wouldn't stun me to see Alabama win and by 2 or 3 touches. College Football is odd that way. The two things that could beat Florida is 'bama's running game, and Saban's Defensive Scheme. If Bama can run the ball (and it will be tough goings) they can keep Tebow and the Gator's offense on the bench, shortening the game. (the giants did it to the patriots, LSU to Oklahoma, and LSU to Ohio State). The other is Saban and his scheme... players are not where they're supposed to be, and he disguises his blitz packages extremely well. It can help bama get extra possessions, get a lead, and keep it. The other thing to remember is that Alabama has an explosive offense. We've not seen it recently, but again, go ask Georgia. Yes Florida is explosive, but I think we're kidding ourselves that 'bama can't score with them... they DO have the talent to match Florida in all 3 fases of the game. I'm not predicting a win for either team, nor am i saying one team CAN'T erase the other team, it certainly can happen. I just think that the teams are closer than at first glance. Should be a great game...

    just a note, I'm not a 'bama or gator fan, I just like good football

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    we should probably still root for the cowboys even if it would send tech to the big 12 championship game. it can't hurt our nc hopes...

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      The only reason ou has the largest margin of victory out of the three is because Stoops is classless and runs up the scores,everyone knows that ! Hince did you guys not read the story above ??? Also Mac Brown puts in our 2nd and 3rd stringers in after they feel they have the game in hand, they try not to run it up but they allow the younger youth to develop .... I am amazed at how ignorant people are posting about things they dont know an just keep rambling .

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      i'm going to assume that was a response to keith...

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    Bad Collegiate Screwing........................ The system is flawed and everyone knows this,,,, so why not change the system..... Oh yeah and i agree There are some classless coaches out there,, and Stupid Stoops is one of the main a holes...

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    I seriously hope some of these teams get together and decide to turn down BCS bowl games untill they have a playoff. There are arguments on both sides and every year a few teams get screwed....this year it was Texas, Texas Tech, and Boise State. Those 3 teams have a combined 3 losses, yeat neither are playing for the National Championship...and 2 aren't even getting a BCS game....yet Virginia Tech plays 1 good game at the right time and gets a BCS game with 4 losses!!! This is a joke...a travesty...and any other name you want to give to it. How can you allow voters and a computer to decide a champion? When in hell is the NCAA going to wake up and put and end to the back door politics that dominate this system and have a real playoff? You can still have your precious bowl games under a playoff format. Not like they are short on time considering most teams have 4-6 weeks off untill their bowl games. Does anyone believe a football team can not play for 6 weeks and expect to be in game shape? Take the top 16 and play every 2 weeks till we have a final. This is not rocket science....every other sport does it. What is up with NCAA football that they continue to make themselves look so mickey mouse every year? Theer must be a truck load of cash paying someone off. Someone has to take a stand and demand change. This has become a national joke!

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